As Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, and Cyber Monday approach, an LSU retail expert says this year’s holiday shopping season may look noticeably different and sharply divided.
Dan Rice, who studies consumer behavior and retail trends at LSU, says shoppers are falling into two distinct groups.
“What we’re seeing is a split,” Rice said. “Higher-income consumers are expected to spend more and, in many ways, carry the market. But middle- and lower-income groups are trending toward spending less and holding onto what they have.”
Rice says ongoing economic uncertainty is pushing many families to scale back.
“People in the middle and lower brackets are being cautious."
Complicating matters are the ripple effects of recent tariffs, which Rice says are making it harder for both shoppers and retailers to determine what truly counts as a deal.
“With tariffs in play, it’s tough to know what will attract customers, and even tougher to know if a deal is really a deal,” Rice said.
Some retailers stocked up early to avoid higher import costs, meaning certain products could see deep price cuts.
“There may be great deals out there because some inventory was ordered before tariffs hit,” Rice noted. “But if that same product had been ordered later and slapped with a tariff, the discount might not be what people think it is.”
Rice says another trend is reshaping the traditional big shopping days; timing.
“More people are shopping earlier and online.” Rice expects higher-income spending to boost overall numbers, but he cautions that the experience won’t be the same for everyone.
“This season will be defined by two different consumer realities,” he said. “For some, it’s a green light to spend. For others, it’s a pause.”
And whether shoppers are hunting for doorbusters or clicking online, Rice says skepticism is likely to play a big role.
“People want value,” he said. “But this year, figuring out what’s truly a value is going to be more complicated.”