Recently, the Census Bureau released a report that got a lot of attention throughout the state.
In case you haven’t heard, Louisiana's population is shrinking. And New Orleans is the fastest shrinking metro area in the country.
Dr. Allison Plyer, Chief Demographer for the Data Center, has studied the demographics and migration patterns in Louisiana for decades, and she joined the show to break down the report and assess the implications of what could happen if we stay on this dangerous course.
“States get concerned when they're losing population, especially to out migration,” says Plier. “It indicates challenges with growing the economy, and it can reduce tax rolls and cause a downward spiral that can be really concerning.”
So just how bad is it? The majority of parishes have dwindled.
Plyer explains, “You see a little bit of continuing growth in certain parishes like St. Tammany, but that's well offset by the parishes that are losing population. So as a whole, the state has lost about 60,000 people since the year 2020.”
I wrote a column over a week back about the New Orleans Metro Area specifically, and how it’s the disastrous effects of the Cantrell administration that have led people to vote with their feet and leave instead of stick it out.
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However, when you broaden the scope to the entire state, it's clear that the issue is largely one of economics. We are failing compared to neighboring states to woo large industrial projects and attract businesses that bring growth. And as a result, people are packing up and leaving for economically greener pastures.
“We know the number one reason people move long distances is for economic opportunity, and Louisiana's job growth has been so weak,” says Plyer. “Since the year 2000, jobs have grown only 2% across Louisiana. Across the nation, they grew 20%.”
Plyer explains that this isn’t a trend across the rest of the region, saying, “And some of our Southern neighbors have grown, you know, 30%, 35%, 40%, right? They're just booming, and we are way down at the bottom with West Virginia.”
So where could this lead? It really can go one of two ways.
The first path is that Louisiana continues shrinking, which could lead to diminished influence on the national stage. Louisiana lost a congressional seat in 2010. If this downward trend continues, Plyer says, "I think Louisiana was not super close to losing a representative (in the 2020 census), but we could be in the future.”
Path number two is that Louisiana manages to score large economic opportunities in growing industries. The keyword is growing. Plyer tells us, “What you want is industries that are unique and are growing. Oil and gas are really important industries in Louisiana. The problem is they're older industries and what older industries do is they maximize profits by reducing expenses.”
As we know, this means automation. “By mechanizing and computerizing,” Plyer says, “they're drilling more and more, but hiring less and less…It's not helping our economic picture. And we need industries that are newer, and that have more job growth associated with them. And that's what many of our Southern state peers have done. We have continued to focus on these older industries like shipping, oil, and tourism, all of which are maximizing profits by hiring fewer and fewer people.”
Plyer continually referenced this 'downward spiral.' Simply, this translates to the fact that if you begin to lose your tax base, you lose the ability to provide and upkeep critical services. That makes it less likely for businesses and workers to move here, and the decay increases exponentially.
So while yes, I believe that New Orleans' decline can be linked to Cantrell and her apathy and poor management, the decay in this state has been real for decades, and something has to change.
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