Pope Saint John XIII once overheard a woman in a crowd call him overweight. He replied, “Madame, I trust you understand that the papal conclave is not exactly a beauty contest.”
And here we are, amid another papal conclave, which hasn’t occurred since 2013.
As the cardinals huddle into the Sistine Chapel to begin casting ballots on who will hold the keys to the office of St. Peter, many onlookers note the peculiarity of online sports betting sites allowing folks to put real money down on who they think will be the next pope.
The idea of betting on the pope like you would a thoroughbred is as strange as it is intriguing. And it may spur the question, If someone—certainly not myself—were to put, say, half a paycheck down on Cardinal Turkson to succeed Pope Francis, is that something I would need to bring up at my next confessional?
Well…according to Catechism of the Catholic Church, No. 2413, “Games of chance (card games, etc.) or wagers are not in themselves contrary to justice. They become morally unacceptable when they deprive someone of what is necessary to provide for his needs and those of others.”
So, no? Just as long as you don’t bet too much.
For example, if you take your jar of rainy day quarters and dimes and place a perfecta bet on Pietro Paulo and Matteo Zuppi, you oughtn’t fear for your mortal soul. However, if you took Jr.’s college fund and placed it on the same two cardinals, you’ve erred.
But this leads to another question. Is placing an irresponsible bet the sin? Or, rather, losing an irresponsible amount of money? By the logic of the catechism, so long as forking over the money doesn’t disable you from providing for others, the moral impermissability only comes once you cripple yourself financially to the point where others suffer. Which could come before the bet, but is more likely to occur after the loss.
(Keep in mind, though, that this is just the rudimentary moral analysis of a layperson. You’re much better off going to the cathedral and asking the priest about the church’s formal position on gambling. This article is merely a jumping off point.)
The Catholic World Report released its own article that touches on the morality of papal betting, which says the Catholic church used to expressly forbid it. In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV “forbade under pain of excommunication all bets concerning the election of a pope, the duration of a pontificate, or the creation of new cardinals.” However, in 1918, the Catholic Canon was revised, and the doctrine was not carried over, rendering the old law ineffective.
But placing money on the pope is no new phenomenon. It’s a practice that dates back ‘til at least to 1503. And it’s been available to bet on the web since the 2005 conclave. What’s different about this conclave is the magnitude and publicity of the betting markets. Some are handling upwards of $18 million in papal-related wagers, parlays, and prop bets.
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What about betting for protestants?
But what if you aren’t Catholic? Of course, you can still take it in on the action, but you may not want to tell the preacher.
Southern Baptists—the largest Protestant denomination in the US—have resolved to label gambling in any form as sinful. The Southern Baptist Convention released its most recent formal resolution on gambling in a 2017 article titled “On the Sin of Gambling.”
They conclude the resolution by saying, “And be it finally RESOLVED that we urge our fellow Southern Baptists and all other followers of Christ not to participate in the sin of gambling.
The United Methodist Church, the second-largest American Protestant denomination (and notably more liberal than the Southern Baptist), also strongly opposes gambling. According to the latest set of United Methodist Social Principles, “Gambling is a menace to society, deadly to the best interests of moral, social, economic, and spiritual life, [and] destructive of good government. . . . As an act of faith and concern, Christians should abstain from gambling and should strive to minister to those victimized by the practice…”
Alright, now that we’ve waded through the ethics of it all, who's the betting favorite?
After day one of voting, black smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel, meaning no new pope, meaning there's still time to place non-crippling bets. According to updated odds via Polymarket, here’s whose likliest to emerge from the conclave as the next Vicar of Christ:
Pietro Parolin - 29%
Louis Antonio Tagle - 20%
Matteo Zuppi - 9%
Pierbattista Pizzaballa - 9%
Peter Erdo - 7%
Peter Turkson - 7%
Jean Mark Aveline - 4%
Mario Grech - 4%
Robert Sarah - 3%
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu - 2%