There is a major aspect of predicting sports that many alleged "sports experts” fail to consider. Maybe they fail to consider this aspect of sports because they don’t understand it and the black & white statistics and records of the teams are more tangible. This aspect of sports is something I often consider when talking about sports and sports history is filled with examples showing that this is valid. The aspect of sports I’m talking about is the emotional aspect.
It is not unusual for a team with inferior talent to upset a team with superior talent because of the emotional factor. Perhaps the most iconic example is the Miracle On Ice that took place at the Winter Olympics at Lake Placid in 1980 when the younger and less experienced U.S. Men’s Olympic Hockey Team upset the Russian Men’s Olympic Hockey Team. At that time - the U.S. olympic teams were made up of amateur players - professional players were not allowed to compete for the U.S. But other teams - like the Russian team - were equivalent to an NHL team. That victory by the U.S. was equal to a college team beating a professional team. The stats, the physical size of the Russian team, and their collective experience made them heavy favorites over the younger U.S. team. The only explanation for the U.S. Miracle On Ice was emotion - which was on the side of the U.S.
As LSU prepared for Ole Miss - there may have been a wholesale failure to consider that the factor of emotion was on the side of Ole Miss.
Before the game - LSU was favored by 2.5 to 3.0 points.
First of all the game was in Oxford, Mississippi. Former Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin - who left Ole Miss to become LSU’s head coach and Kiffin left under a shroud of controversy. Kiffin left an Ole Miss football program on the rise and announced his departure just before Ole Miss was preparing to appear in the college football playoffs for the first time. On top of that - Kiffin was going to be the coach of a key SEC rival. And Kiffin’s massive $91 million contract must have bruised Ole Miss’s ego. The idea of playing a Lane Kiffin LSU team in their home stadium in Oxford must have been like offering a pork chop to a hungry Pit Bull.
I always try to consider the emotion of a game - but I think I was so excited about LSU’s start under Kiffin that my thought that LSU would beat Ole Miss failed to consider the power of emotion that was on the side of Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin projects a cocky confidence - was LSU a bit too confident?
LSU had to be shocked by Ole Miss jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the 1st quarter and Ole Miss led LSU 24-7 at halftime. LSU deserves a lot of credit with a big comeback in the 3rd quarter but Ole Miss scored 8 points in the 4th quarter and went onto win 32-24.
Following the loss to Ole Miss - LSU dropped in the AP Top-25 rankings from #8 to #10 and I think LSU could have dropped more than that.
The emotion factor being in favor of Ole Miss was not considered by a lot of people - both sports experts and fans. LSU’s loss to Ole Miss is a reminder of how strongly emotion plays a part in sports. It’s not that Ole Miss was an inferior team - they have players recruited by Lane Kiffin. Who knows how many of those players resented Kiffin’s departure after he recruited them and how much that created a motivation of revenge - that’s one powerful emotion. And remember that Ole Miss has one of the best QBs in college football in Trinidad Chambliss and he was a big factor.
Every loss is a team effort and shouldn’t be blamed on one player - but Tiger QB Sam Leavitt has been a key factor in LSU’s win so far and in the game against Ole Miss Leavitt seemed out-of-sync and that could have been the result of the degree of pressure he felt in the game. Near the end of the game trailing by 8 points - Leavitt uncharacteristically missed a wide open receiver in the end zone.
When it comes to emotion in sports - the motivation of revenge on Ole Miss’s side seemed greater than the Kiffin confidence.
This coming weekend - #10 LSU should have emotion on their side as the host #23 Texas A&M. The Aggies lost at home to Kentucky Saturday and dropped from #9 to #23.
How will LSU handle Texas A&M? A&M will want to make a comeback from an embarrassing loss - but LSU will be in front of their rabid home crowd and they will be eager to prove the loss to Ole Miss was a one and done deal. I would not want to be Texas A&M coming into Death Valley to meet the wounded LSU Tigers. Don’t lose hope - LSU can still make it to the college football playoffs!
