LSU-Florida usually meet in October, but the 2023 game takes place on the second Saturday in November. The last two times they’ve played outside of October, the games got wacky.
In 2016, LSU hosted Florida on November 19th because of a hurricane that never came to Gainesville in October. Before the game, LSU running back Leonard Fournette got into a pre-game scuffle. He was not expected to play but decided to play after getting involved in a shoving match.
Disappointing end as LSU failed to score twice from the one-yard line on the final two plays of the game and lost 16-10.
In 2020, LSU visited Florida on December 12th. The 3-and-5 Tigers were a huge underdog and pulled off a memorable victory. A Florida player threw Kole Taylor’s shoe which set up Cade York’s 57-yard field goal in the fog with 23 seconds left to give LSU a 37-34 win.
The Tigers are 15.5 point favorites. The point spread has grown as LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is listed as probable after spending the week in concussion protocol.
Florida has an average defense, allowing 350 yards and 25 points a game. The Gators leading tackler, linebacker Shemar James, is out for the season, but two starting defensive linemen for Florida are returning from injury. Nose tackle Cam Jackson and edge rusher Tyreak Sapp are expected to play after missing last week’s Arkansas game.
For Florida to beat LSU, they’ll likely have to outscore the Tigers. The best way to do that is to convert on third down. LSU is 122nd in the country in allowing opponents converting on third down at 47-percent. Florida is not great on third down, converting just 36-percent of the time.
Florida quarterback Graham Mertz has had a good season. He’s thrown for 2,409 yards and 17 touchdowns. The transfer from Wisconsin has also completed 74-percent of his passes.
Mertz has excelled at completing short to medium passes, so tackling will be important for the Tigers shaky defensive secondary. But Mertz will not beat you with his legs, so him setting a school record for rushing yards and touchdowns by a quarterback is unlikely.
Florida has two running backs from Louisiana. Montrell Johnson from De La salle in New Orleans and Trevor Etienne from Jennings. Both have combined to rush for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
LSU has been burned by players from Louisiana. Florida State’s Keon Coleman and Ole Miss’ Tre Harris both had career days against the Tigers this season.
Speaking of running backs, LSU’s Logan Diggs is doubtful with an upper body injury.
Both teams have a lot of motivation to win. Florida needs a win to be bowl eligible and with Missouri and Florida State still left on the Gators schedule, missing a bowl is a strong possibility.
Coach Brian Kelly has hammered the desire to win ten games this season. The Tigers will need to win their final three games and the bowl game to do that. Kelly believes back-to-back ten-win seasons is a sign the Tigers are building towards becoming an elite program.
I like LSU to win 41-31.