More than 60% of Americans would rather see winners of presidential elections in the U.S. be determined by the popular vote than the electoral college, according to recent Pew Research Center poll results.
Another Pew survey conducted in January 2021 found that 55% of Americans would prefer that the popular vote determine the president, compared to 63% of participants in the poll conducted in late June and early July of 2022. According to the National Archives, public opinion polls have routinely shown that Americans support abolishing the Electoral College altogether: 58% were in favor of abolition in 1967, 81% in 1968 and 75% in 1981.
What is the Electoral College?
When voters make selections for president on election ballots, what they are really selecting is a slate of electors that are expected to vote for that candidate. There are currently 538 Electoral College seats and a candidate must win 270 to be elected.
Every state’s number of votes is equal to the number of senators and representatives in its U.S. Congressional delegation.
Political parties from each state choose a potential slate of electors before elections. The electors from the party of the winning presidential candidate in that state usually become the official electors. However, some states have a slightly different model that allows for a different distribution of electors.
While there is no Constitutional provision or federal law requiring electors to vote for their candidate, they generally always do. Some states have voting requirements for the electors.
“The Founding Fathers established the Electoral College in the Constitution, in part, as a compromise between the election of the President by a vote in Congress and election of the President by a popular vote of qualified citizens,” the National Archives explained.
Although the process is in the original design of the Constitution, the term does not appear in the document, according to the National Archives. It has also changed somewhat over the years, including when the 12th Amendment was passed.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, the Electoral College has also racist origins.
“When established, it applied the three-fifths clause, which gave a long-term electoral advantage to slave states in the South – and continues to dilute the political power of voters of color,” said the center. “It incentivizes presidential campaigns to focus on a relatively small number of ‘swing states.’ Together, these dynamics have spurred debate about the system’s democratic legitimacy.”
Why do Electoral College votes sometimes turn out different than the popular vote?
Since the number of electors form each state is tied to its Congressional delegation, it “benefits smaller states, which have at least three electoral votes – including two electoral votes tied to their two Senate seats, which are guaranteed even if they have a small population and thus a small House delegation,” said the Brennan Center.
According to the U.S. House of Representatives, a presidential candidate has won the popular vote and lost the election five times in U.S. history. The first three were Andrew Jackson in 1824 (to John Quincy Adams); Samuel Tilden in 1876 (to Rutherford B. Hayes); Grover Cleveland in 1888 (to Benjamin Harrison).
In the past 25 years, it has happened twice: Al Gore in 2000 (to George W. Bush) and Hillary Clinton in 2016 (to Donald J. Trump). Both Electoral College winners were Republicans.
According to the Federal Election Commission, Bush beat gore with 271 electoral votes to 266, although Gore won 48.38% of the popular vote to Bush’s 47.87%. Trump had even more electoral votes – 304 – compared to Clinton’s 227, though she won the popular vote by a greater percentage (48.18% to 46.09%).
“Based on population trends, those disparities will likely increase as the most populous states are expected to account for an even greater share of the U.S. population in the decades ahead,” said the Brennan Center.
What can be done?
Since the Electoral College process is part of the original design of the U.S. Constitution it would be necessary to pass a Constitutional amendment to change this system. Constitutional amendments can take several years to pass, according to the White House.
Per the recent Pew survey results, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are far more likely (80%) than Republicans and Republican leaning voters (42%) to support moving to a popular vote system. Liberal Democrats are even more likely to want to change the system at 87%, compared to 66% conservative Republicans who would prefer keeping the current system.
Even as the majority of Republicans (56%) want to maintain the Electoral College process, “the share who now express support for moving to a popular vote system is the highest it’s been since the 2016 election,” said Pew.
Overall, around 70% of Americans ages 18 to 29 think the Electoral College should be nixed, compared to 56% of people age 65 and older.
In the past two centuries, there have been more than 700 proposals to change the system, including more proposals for Constitutional amendments than on any other subject. Last year, an amendment calling for direct elections was introduced in the House. It was referred to the Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties as of March 2021.
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