Restaurants, barber shops and shopping centers have reopened and put the darkest days of the pandemic behind them. But what about the local movie theater?
Some critics crowed that never again would dozens of us gather in the dark with tubs of buttered popcorn on our laps to enjoy a shared storytelling experience with strangers. The way they told it, movie theaters would go the way of the buffalo in the new world of streaming. Netflix, Hulu, Disney+ would push them out of the way like talkies had replaced silent films in an earlier era.
But a look at the data shows that common opinion could be off base, because when studio behemoths like ‘Maverick’ were released, more fans than ever flocked to see them on the big screen. And they brought their wallets with them.
In the pre-pandemic first nine months of 2018 and 2019, the domestic box office brought in over $7 billion in revenue, with 68 movies opening over 2,000 locations in 2018 and 69 in 2019.
In 2020 and 2021 – the height of social distancing and stay-at-home orders – there was a staggering $6 billion drop in revenue. The domestic box office made $1.9 billion in 2020 with 22 movies opening in over 2,000 locations in the first nine months of the year and $1.8 billion in 2021 with 32 films in the same number of locations over the same time period.
Box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian says there have always been ebbs and flows in the box office, but pandemic losses created insecurity for everyone in the industry. But without much fanfare, theaters have started to become more stable, which shows in the numbers the first nine months of this year.
The domestic box office has made just under $5.2 billion with 42 movies opening in over 2,000 locations nationwide. So, the numbers aren’t quite back to pre-pandemic days, but they’re nowhere near the drop-offs of 2020 and 2021.
To paraphrase Arnold Schwarzenegger, some could even say with certainty, ‘we’ll be back.’
"When the pandemic hit, movie theaters saw a massive disruption to their business. A lot of uncertainty," Dergarabedian said. "And now movie theaters, at least looking at the summer of this year, hit a period of stability and growth, compared to where it was over the last two years."
That sounds optimistic coming off September, which brought the worst box office numbers in 25 years, even with $3 tickets available for World Cinema Day. Theaters raked in $319 million in September, according to Deadline, down more than 13% from last year, and less than half of the month’s box office in 2019.
Yet, all is not lost. Some experts considered that a small setback in a larger pattern of success.
"One blockbuster would’ve sent the box office soaring,” Tim Gray, senior vice president at Variety, told KCBS.
Gray said ongoing supply chain issues meant no big movies came out in September, but some biggies are looming.
“Theater owners don’t care about (movie) profitability, they just want bodies in the theaters to buy their concessions … There are some biggies coming out this year. The new ‘Black Panther and ‘Avatar.’
Gray said with excitement building about the new installment of ‘Avatar’ ‘the year will even out.’
Related
A backlog of films
When the pandemic hit in March 2020, movie studios were forced to decide what to do with the films they had sunk millions of dollars into. With many projects completed or nearing completion, movie studios and executives opted to hold on and wait out the storm.
Several big movies were put on the back burner, including Marvel's "Black Widow" and Daniel Craig's last hurrah as James Bond in "No Time to Die."
This is what Dergarabedian attributes to the low numbers in the first nine months of 2020, as there were no releases from May to August.
Then, as the world began to reopen, movies flooded theaters even though everything wasn't entirely back to normal. Studios had no choice but to start pumping out movies.
From May to August 2021, there were 31 movies released in over 1,000 locations, seven fewer than in 2019 and 2018.
"We had so many films released [summer 2021], and even though last summer didn't generate a ton of box office, they weren't going to hold a movie that was produced in 2018 or 2017 until 2023 or 2024," Dergarabedian said.
The only problem is that movie productions were still slow to start back up, creating a block in the supply chain where new movies were coming out infrequently, without any big releases expected month to month. From May to August of 2022, there were 21 movies released in over 1,000 locations.
"It's supply chain dynamics, and we talk about supply chain as related to widgets and hard goods, but it's certainly playing into this situation," Dergarabedian said.
Dergarabedian says that we are now living through the "unstable ripple effect" of the pandemic, throwing a wrench into movie productions that's being felt across the board.
But there were glimmers of hope, as Dergarabedian said that theaters showed they were back this year with not only movies returning but movie watchers as well.
"Normally, studios like to have an orderly release schedule. This has been kind of a disorderly release schedule," Dergarabedian said. "But luckily, they had great success by crunching all these big films into the summer of 2022…[showing] that the movies are back."
The rumors of their demise may be greatly exaggerated. Dergarabedian says it is important not to have a short memory. Without big numbers reported every weekend, some tend to think that things are headed in the wrong direction, but that isn't the case.
"It's just been a tremendous summer for movies," Dergarabedian said.
"Spiderman: No Way Home"
A crucial point for movie theaters came in December of 2021 with one movie that many have said shows there is still support for experiencing films on the big screen: "Spiderman: No Way Home."
With the omicron variant of COVID-19 — the most infectious version of the disease at the time — spreading like wildfire in the U.S., some were concerned about the release of what became the sixth all-time grossing movie.
Dergarabedian shared that it was definitely a test to release the film despite the climate at the time.
He noted that "'Spiderman: No Way Home' was great" and that "it dominated for two months," showing signs of life in theaters that hadn't been seen since early 2020.
"The success of 'Spiderman: No Way Home' posting back in December, the second biggest opening weekend of all time, was really a signal that people wanted to go back to the theater," Dergarabedian said.
Related
The return of the summer blockbuster
This summer saw fewer movies released than in the summer of 2021. However, the summer of 2022 has seen an incredible jump in box office numbers, rising 131% compared to last year.
Several factors played a role in the increased revenue this summer, one being that not as many films went straight to streaming. In summer 2021, the top-grossing movie was "Black Widow," making $177.6 million in a dual release that also saw it go on Disney+.
This summer, the top-grossing movie was "Top Gun: Maverick," which made $673.7 million and was a theater-only release.
While the industry is changing rapidly, Dergarabedian says that he thinks certain movies have done better recently because they aren't going straight to streaming, giving moviegoers a longer window to see films.
"The longer windows are helping the movies that are still in theaters because if there isn't a brand new blockbuster out there, people will catch up on their movie going," Dergarabedian said. "If they can only do that by going to a movie theater because a film is not yet available… that's good for those movies and the filmmakers."
But, Dergarabedian said that he knows films will eventually make their way to the "small screen," and that's good because it's best when people are excited about what's coming next on the big screen while enjoying what they've already seen on the small screen.
"Have things changed? Certainly, they have. Are there challenges for movie theaters? No question. But I think movie theater is here to stay, but how consumers look at the movie theater experience," Dergarabedian said.
This summer helped show that theaters were back, posting only 17% less at the domestic box office than in 2019 and 2018. But even with an over $3 billion season, Dergarabedian doesn't want to make any proclamations.
“They’ll be there if you give them a reason to go," Dergarabedian said.
“I think the movie theater is always going to be here. In what form that takes, we don't know," Dergarabedian said. "There may be fewer theaters, which is fine if it's a leaner, meaner business and theaters are filling more to capacity, and the per theater averages are stronger, and you don't have a ton of empty seats. That's a good thing."
Related
Related
