We're a little more than a month away from qualifying for the Louisiana gubernatorial election. According to a recent poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies, Republican Jeff Landry leads the field with 30 percent with Democrat Secretary Shawn Wilson eight points behind him in second place.
Meanwhile, the five other announced candidates--four Republicans and one independent--are polling between two and six percent. Will those numbers force any of them to drop out of the race?
One analyst says not yet.
"Only now are voters going to start to tune in,” JMC Analytics founder John Couvillon said.
Couvillion says if Republicans Steven Waguespack, John Schroder, Sharon Hewitt, and Richard Nelson and independent Hunter Lundy were polling in the low single digits right before qualifying, then we might see one or more of them drop out of the race. Couvillion says a better bellwether for those candidates' chances will be their upcoming campaign finance reports.
"Given that the next finance report will be due in a couple of weeks, I think that will be an interesting indication of whether these candidates stuck down in single digits will have the wherewithal to go all the way to October,” Couvillon said. "Then it would be a legitimate question to ask about, you know, given your cash on hand numbers or X, Y, Z, do you really have what it takes to try to break out from the pack in August and September."
Couvillon says time is running out for them to make that decision.
“It is something that always is a possibility about dropping back to your old office,” Couvillon said, adding that it will be more difficult for them to win reelection if they continue to play the waiting game. "The only thing about doing that is that you have the risk of other candidates who have already been in the race. They've been spending money, talking to donors, meeting voters, and so forth. Is there necessarily a place for you if you try to run for your old office again?”
Qualifying for the Governor's race, other statewide offices, and legislative seats begins on August 8.
