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Analyst: Early voting numbers favor Republicans

Early voting
Chris Miller/WWL

Early voting is under way for the November 8 election. Already, voters are taking advantage of the opportunity to cast their ballots ahead of time.

"We have the second-highest ever early voting turnout: 108,938," John Couvillon, pollster and owner of JMC Analytics told WWL's Tommy Tucker, citing data released by the Louisiana Secretary of State's Office. "Of that 108,000-and-change, 73,000 were mail-in, and 36,000 was in person."


Couvillon notes that state official lump the absentee mail-in ballots with the first-day early voting ballots when issuing its total. Still, Couvillion says this year's early voting could mirror that of the 2018 midterm election. That year, Couvillon said, bullish GOP voters boosted early voting numbers.

"I think an echo of that in terms of Republican enthusiasm is what you're seeing in Louisiana as well this year," Couvillon said.

Another good sign for the Republican Party, Couvillon says, is lower-than-usual Black turnout for early voting.

"So you have 24-percent Black early voting, which is very, very weak for the Democrats," Couvillon said. "Forty percent of the voters were Republican when the numbers on the voter registration rolls are 33 percent. So what I'm getting at is: I'm seeing yet another piece of evidence of strong Republican enthusiasm that was echoed in Louisiana yesterday."

Couvillon summed up his analysis this way: "Strong early voting. Weak Democratic numbers."