The 2024 presidential election has been dominated by President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, with polls consistently showing that Biden and Trump are would be the 2 candidates if the election were held today.
When Robert Kennedy, Jr. announced he was running as a Democrat challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination - the polls continued to show it was Biden and Trump. But Robert Kennedy, Jr. has announced that he is now running as an Independent candidate, and a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll shows that Kennedy's Independent run hurts Trump and vaults Biden into the lead.
Prior to Kennedy announcing he was running as an Independent - President Biden beats Trump but it is a statistical tie. With Kennedy factored in as an independent - Biden would win with 44% of the vote - Trump would have 37% of the vote - Kennedy 16% and 3% would be undecided.
In the same poll when it was a two-way race between Biden and Trump - Biden was at 49% with Trump at 46%. Biden and Trump both earned 91% of their party. Trump won with Independents 49% to Biden's 43%.
Robert Kennedy scored huge with Independents getting 29% support while Biden's support among independents drops 9 points to 33%, and Trump's support drops 15 points to 34%.
I have consistently talked about the power of the independent voters in deciding national elections, and more Americans are fleeing both major parties to register as Independents - the importance of the Independents is undeniable.
What is surprising to me is that more independents are aligning with Trump than Biden - so when an Independent candidate enters the race - support for Trump drops to the point where President Biden would win re-election if the election were held today.
It's a long way to the election and a lot can still happen. I'm not sure Biden and Trump will be the main candidates representing the two major parties - but it is possible they will both represent their parties. If that happens and Kennedy remains in the race - Biden wins.
But remember that people are followers - sheeple - and we learned in Louisiana's election this past Saturday how powerful the polls can be. It will be interesting to see what happens when the new polls including Kennedy as an Independent begin to resonate with the voters. Will minds be changed?