It’s been nearly 20 years since Louisiana turned blue in a presidential election. That hasn’t happened since Bill Clinton took the state in 1996.
However, according to voter registration data, as of September 1st of this year, Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the state. That probably comes as a surprise to a great many in Louisiana, which has been a reliable Republican stronghold for a generation.
John Couvillon, founder of JMC Analytics, points to history as the reason why Democrats still have more registered voters.
“In the old days, when you had the Democratic solid south combined with a closed Democratic primary system … basically everyone registered as a Democrat because the thought was you were throwing your vote away if you weren’t able to vote in the primary that mattered.”
Couvillon points to the primary laws changing in 1977 combined with Democrats’ stances on many national issues being at odds with Louisianians. This, along with attrition, created a Democratic plurality that may not exist for much longer.
While attitudes in Louisiana have changed over the years, many citizens’ registration info has not. Couvillon notes that many citizens don’t take the time to change their party affiliation on official paperwork over the years despite their shifting attitudes.
Their votes on more conservative issues tend to show more about the statewide mindset than registration numbers themselves.
While the Democratic majority in Louisiana may be a remnant of the “Blue Dog” days of the past, voter registration data shows that gap rapidly closing. Republicans are routinely outpacing Democrats when it comes to new voter registration in the state. As older voters who remained Democrats on the voter rolls age out, Louisiana is expected to reflect its reliably Republican voting record in the amount of registered voters as well.