We have been closely monitoring what Sweden and Finland are considering doing as they weigh their options in joining NATO. It may be one of the pivotal moments that will determine the severity of the Russian-Ukrainian War, because there’s no doubt that Putin's attack on Ukraine was meant to scare other non-NATO European countries away from joining. Now, that seems to have backfired as both Sweden and Finland are seriously considering joining NATO. I spoke with Dakota Wood, Senior Research Fellow of Defense Programs at the Heritage Foundation, on what this potential move could mean in terms of escalating or ending the war.
Sweden and Finland looking to join NATO is a truly pivotal moment in this war, right?
It broadens the lens from just Ukraine that has bothered Putin for so long. Putin has stated that the collapse of the former Soviet Union is the greatest disaster of the 20th century. He wants to
reclaim that kind of a greater 19th century czarist Russia. Sweden and Finland changes the whole dynamic. China's expansion has finally spurred Japan to double its defense budget, and the Philippines to re-invite the U.S. presence back into their country. When authoritarian states and their despotic regimes start expanding, it shakes people out of this complacency. This is what Russia has done for Europe, but Sweden and Finland joining NATO is really buttressing, it really sends a signal back to Moscow. And we’ll have to see how Putin responds.
Norway, Sweden, and Finland act independently of one another, historically. All of a sudden, there's this new alliance between them that Norway has been spearheading... the decision could happen sooner rather than later.
Those countries have seen what has happened in Belarus with the Russian investment in that country and the threats they’ve made against Lithuania and Estonia. Now, Finland and Sweden are looking to this collective safety blanket of NATO
At what point do we continue to allow the threat of Putin's nuclear capability to be the checkmate?
It's the ultimate threat, and that's what has everybody scared. People view nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent, or the stick by which to intimidate and to coerce other nations. It's part of the dialogue that goes on between nuclear-armed states, the fear that somebody might actually use one of these weapons, and I don’t think people have thought about that. What would be the United States or the European’s response to Russia using a nuclear device in Ukraine? It's a great unknown, it's high risk, and it has very high consequences. The threat of the use of nuclear weapons just has people scared, and that's why we see a lot of shifting positions by different politicians and national leaders.
