SOUTH JERSEY (KYW Newsradio) — There was no red wave, contrary to the expectations of pundits, and incumbents held on to power in parts of New Jersey thought to be up for grabs.
Congressman Andy Kim jumped out to a lead on Republican Bob Healey and never looked back, thanks to early in-person voting and voting by mail.
Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute at Rider University, said 28,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted early. Rasmussen says Healey only clawed back a fraction of those votes on Election Day.
Incumbent Democrats held steady in Camden, Burlington and Atlantic counties, and Rep. Donald Norcross easily won his rematch with Clair Gustafson.
“Democrats banked a lot of votes early and, for whatever reason, same-day turnout was a little less than expected, and the fact is, incumbents generally win,” said John Froonjian, director of the Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University.
He says the Republican playbook has been encouraging in person voting on Election Day while failing to embrace early voting and VBM — and it’s proving to be a huge disadvantage for Republicans both locally and nationally.
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“I’m interested in seeing if there’s a wholesale reevaluation of that strategy and that thinking going forward,” Froonjian said. “And the Republicans’ concentration on claims of voter fraud is really hurting the party.”
Froonjian points to “Trumpism” for this mentality, and nationwide, some of Trump’s chosen ones didn’t have a great night.
Rasmussen says Republicans in New Jersey are already at a significant voter registration disadvantage in most parts of the state, so they needed to have a huge turnout on Election Day. Turns out, this year was about average in that regard.
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“You can talk a big game and you can run hard at something, but if you don’t have the money to match the other side, you’re not going to be able to get your message out,” Rasmussen said. “You’re going to be invisible.”
Democrats held on to win in a very tight race for the Gloucester County Commissioner’s office. Frank DiMarco, Denice DiCarlo and County Clerk Tom Hogan’s campaign bombarded people with text reminders to vote early. While Republicans in the race ran some TV ads, their efforts, and the spending, ultimately didn’t translate to the ballot box, in part, because Dems have about 25,000 more registered voters in Gloucester County.
Froonjian said last year’s upset of the former state Senate president, Steve Sweeney, was more of a one-off and supported by a strong candidate for governor on top of the ticket in Jack Ciattarelli, who found a way to keep it close against Gov. Phil Murphy.
“They are fired up. They are working hard. But they are out-spent and they are outnumbered,” Rasmussen said of Republicans in Jersey.
Froonjian thinks there could have also been some over-confidence on the Republican side, both from candidates and voters, though that’s more of a national issue that may have had a trickle down effect on enthusiasm.
“In Washington, there were Republicans talking about who was going to be in their leadership, talking about their plans for holding investigations, and maybe even reviewing social security and Medicare,” Froonjian said. “And I think that kind of reinforced for many people that ‘well maybe they don’t need my vote, this is going to be a wipeout.’”
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Republicans did show up in Cumberland County, taking control of the commissioners office there, and the GOP is dominating areas near the shore. Congressmen Chris Smith and Jeff Van Drew coasted to victory, and Froonjian said state Sen. Michael Testa is a very effective leader for South Jersey Republicans.
And Rep. Tom Malinowski lost his congressional seat to Republican Tom Kean Jr. in the newly drawn 7th district, making New Jersey’s congressional contingent nine Democrats and three Republicans.
Technical difficulites
We are also still waiting to hear what happened with the brand-new voting equipment in Mercer County that went down on Election Day. Rasmussen says it could be that the counting machines weren’t scanning ballots properly because of an issue with the type of ink used on the voting machines.
“One of the things we see in New Jersey constantly is new equipment, new processes, new requirements. … You’re saying to these county boards of elections, ‘Here’s something else you have to do differently, and here’s something else you have to do flawlessly, and execute it right the first time.’ At some point, that’s going to catch up with us,” Rasmussen said. “At some point, somebody is going to miss something.”
County officials say the ballots are secure, and each one will be counted.