The thing about promises is that they create clear and obvious expectations.
And when unfulfilled, promises lead to significant disappointment.
On January 9, just hours after the Patriots’ season-ending 35-23 loss to the Bills in Buffalo, Robert and Jonathan Kraft sent a letter to New England’s season ticket holders. That letter expressed obvious regret over another season without a playoff game, never mind a playoff win.
More than that, though, it looked ahead to “critical evaluations” of the “football operation” in which the team would “strive to improve.” The Krafts wrote that they “anticipate presenting” fans “with an improved product on the field” in 2023.
Now, though, with the first couple days of the first wave of free agency already behind us, there’s no apparent signs or path to that seemingly promised improvement.
While there are plenty of avenues for roster improvement, there is no question that the first couple days of free agency are a major part of the talent acquisition process for teams like the Patriots looking to retool and rebuild their roster. New England proved that with its “uncharacteristically aggressive” shopping spree in the spring of 2021.
But the first few days of free agency – which are actually the first few days of legalized tampering, because despite the hundreds of millions of dollars of deals that have been agreed to free agency technically starts on Wednesday afternoon – aren’t just about big-money, big-risk signings. Now is the time that offseason personnel plans are set into motion. Signings, re-signings, trades and such begin to combine to make the mosaic that Bill Belichick likes to describe as the roster-building process.
If you want to get better, if you need to get better, then the last couple days was almost assuredly the first step in that process.
Yet, things have been characteristically quiet in New England.
As was the case for so many of the offseasons during the decades-long dynasty in Foxborough, Belichick and the Patriots have remained relatively motionless through the opening hours of offseason action.
Sure, there was the re-signing of versatile veteran cornerback Jonathan Jones.
But that was balanced out by the departure of top receiver Jakobi Meyers, a respected young member of a team that doesn’t have enough playmakers and could be challenged in the leadership area in the coming years.
There have been a couple other minor re-signings, keeping physical safety Jabrill Peppers and depth defensive lineman Carl Davis in town.
Oh, and there’s the trade of 2021 free agency cautionary tale tight end Jonnu Smith to the Falcons, an offloading of roster dead weight to open up a little extra cap space while still carrying the memory of the misstep through a significant dead cap hit.
While trades and signings abound around the NFL with organizations making major moves, a Patriots team whose ownership pretty much promised improvement barely two months ago is seemingly spinning its wheels.
New England is not a better football team this morning than it was when the season came to yet another dismal end in January. The net result of the key first few days of free agency and trades leaves a less-talented roster not more.
No, the first couple days of free agency is not the be-all, end-all of roster rebuilding. It doesn’t mean the squad that takes the field in September is the one listed on the roster right now.
Yes, there is a second wave of free agency to come. The draft and New England’s 11 picks remain on the April horizon.
There are and will be opportunities to be had for Belichick, Matt Groh and the Patriots personnel rest to add some level of talent to the mix.
But for a team that was so aggressive to promote offseason improvement to fans that it sent a letter to its season ticket holders hours after last season’s finale, the opening to free agency and the opportunity to actually pursue that improvement has been anything but aggressive.
Maybe New England has a big trade up its sleeve. From this viewpoint, Bengals receiver Tee Higgins would qualify.
Maybe there is still a breaking news-worthy free agency signing yet to come. Chiefs tackle Orlando Brown comes to mind.
As Belichick likes to point out throughout the offseason, his team doesn’t have to prove itself on the field until September.
Certainly there’s plenty of time for plenty of moves. And time will tell.
But a New England offseason that came with so much promise and promises has already lost some momentum, almost before it even got going.
Right now that’s allowed doubt and disappointment to develop in Patriot Nation. And in what is yet another critical offseason, that’s the last thing that Kraft, Belichick or anyone else in these parts needs. I can promise you that.