Ryan Strome and the Rangers avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $9 million pact on Thursday. A $4.5 million average-annual cap hit represents a compromise, considering that the Rangers’ initial offer was $3.6 million and Strome was seeking a $5.7 million salary.
For the Rangers, a $4.5 million AAV commitment is good value. Strome’s ability isn’t that of a $5 million-plus earning center, so a contract close to or exceeding $5 million annually would have been an overpay.
Now that the ink is dried, Strome will have the opportunity to prove his long-term value to the Blueshirts. While he developed solid chemistry with Hart Trophy finalist Artemi Panarin, there is a school of thought that Strome’s 59 points in 70 games in 2019-20 was inflated through the fortune of playing alongside one of the NHL’s premier scoring forwards.
Panarin’s all-world ability can make talented linemates appear better than they actually are. That’s not a knock on Strome, but if the Rangers teamed up Panarin “average center X,” that center could potentially play at an above-average level. If Panarin’s center was an All-Star, that player could potentially play at a point-per-game level.
For Strome, this is a “show-me” contract. If Strome’s production trends upward in year two alongside Panarin, any thought that his 2019-20 statistics were a fluke or inflated dissolves. Should his overall play and chemistry with Panarin be encouraging over the course of the next two seasons, he will position himself to remain a Blueshirt for years to come.
Conversely, there is a chance that Strome’s numbers were misleading and he regresses. If that’s the case, the Rangers will need to identify a second line center upgrade. This scenario could push former 21st overall pick Filip Chytil into a promotion to center the Panarin line. At some point, the Rangers will need to explore Chytil’s capability in a top-six role.
Between Strome, Chytil, and Brett Howden, one of these centers must rise to the challenge by fully justify a long-term pairing with Panarin. Otherwise, it’s time for general manager Jeff Gorton to go “big game hunting” to acquire a second A-level center to bolster the Rangers down the middle. Mika Zibanejad centering the top line is half of the equation, but a continual ingredient of Stanley Cup winning teams is a dynamic 1-2 punch of elite centers.
My gut says that Strome isn’t going to progress to that esteemed class of centers, and the Rangers view the 2020-21 season as more developmental than an all-out charge for Lord Stanley. There hasn’t been a game-changing trade or signing – the 2020-21 Rangers will take the ice with essentially last season’s roster, aside from the departures of Jesper Fast and Marc Staal, with the biggest change being the pure luck of winning the 2020 NHL Draft lottery to select Alexis Lafreniere first overall.
Last season’s roster wasn’t good enough to get past the Carolina Hurricanes in the NHL playoff qualifying round. So, the Rangers are betting on forward strides from returning players, and the integration of a youth movement led by Lafreniere and other highly-touted prospects in Vitali Kravtsov, K’Andre Miller, and Morgan Barron.
If the Rangers indeed view 2020-21 as a development year, it’s possible that Strome’s name appears among trade deadline chatter and a contender could be willing to meet the Blueshirts’ demands. If the Rangers are able to clear Strome’s $4.5 million cap hit combined with Henrik Lundqvist’s buyout cap charge falling from $5.5 million to $1.5 million in 2021-22, this could help open up the cap room needed to make room for a top center to join up ahead of the 2021-22 season.
For now, the onus is on Strome to do everything possible to lock down his place as the Rangers’ second line center for the long haul. If his play doesn’t cut the mustard, the Blueshirts brass shouldn’t hesitate to seek an upgrade.
Follow Sean Hartnett on Twitter: @HartnettHockey
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