LAKE FOREST, Ill. (670 The Score) — Bears general manager Ryan Poles broke his pre-draft poker face Tuesday, showing a wry smile when looking ahead to this NFL Draft.
Poles has played out countless scenarios in his mind for the Bears as they hold the No. 10 overall pick. Poles, assistant general manager Ian Cunningham and the rest of the Bears front office have spent the days and weeks leading up to Thursday evening running simulations and conducting due diligence. Now, the Bears feel as ready as they can be for an unpredictable NFL Draft.
"I think this one’s going to be a little wild,” Poles said. “But we’re prepared for all the scenarios that will pop up."
The Bears are coming off a disappointing 5-12 campaign in 2024, a year that was intended to showcase progress but instead produced two fewer wins than the season before. They've spent three years rebuilding under Poles' watch and believe that new head coach Ben Johnson can now lead the team to sustained success.
How the Bears use their first-round pick – whether that’s indeed at No. 10 or in a different slot through a trade – will give us another window into their thinking.
The Bears could simply sit back and watch, as Cunningham said, and select the best player available with the 10th overall pick. They would still have a pair of second-selections at No. 39 and No. 41 and a third-round pick at No. 72 overall to fill other needs.
That would be a conservative, prudent move for a roster that's still in need of quality depth. Poles and his brass haven't drafted well enough over the last three years to fill out the bottom of their roster.
But there will also be temptation for the Bears to trade up, a possibility that league sources believe is in play. The thought process in doing so would be to land a prospect with a blue-chip grade on their draft board.
A trade up could position the Bears to add a game-changing defensive like Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter or Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham. It could also present the fascinating opportunity to select Boise State star running back Ashton Jeanty, who has sky-high potential.
"Yeah, we weigh premium position versus non-premium position,” Cunningham said of the Bears potentially selecting a running back. “But at the end of the day, it's a playmaker. If we see him in that role, I think you can go take a playmaker that's not at a premium position.”
If the Bears traded up, it would signal their belief in the present. Drafting Jeanty in particular would indicate Poles and Johnson see a championship-caliber roster in place — or something close to it. But it would also put more pressure on the Bears to hit on their ensuing picks to add complementary roster depth.
Burning draft capital to trade up in the top 10 – even if it’s just a second-round pick being dealt away – could be a risk to Poles’ goal of creating sustained success. One could easily argue the Bears haven't earned the benefit of the doubt to make such a move.
When the rival Lions selected running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in 2023, they did so understanding he was a luxury of sorts. Detroit had earned that opportunity with several years of wise drafting by general manager Brad Holmes. The Lions have won back-to-back NFC North titles, and Gibbs has been a key part of that success.
On Tuesday morning, Poles noted his phone has been ringing with calls from around the league. Teams recognize the position the Bears are in, one that's similar to last year.
Poles sat alongside Cunningham and then-coach Matt Eberflus late last April as he strongly considered a trade up from the No. 9 pick. The Bears coveted receiver Rome Odunze.
Cunningham reminded Poles of the Bears’ pre-draft scenarios, and they trusted their analytics by remaining firm in their belief that Odunze would fall to them. The Falcons then made a stunning decision with the No. 8 selection – one slot ahead of the Bears – by drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Ultimately, the Bears landed their target in Odunze and didn’t mortgage away their future to land him. It was a reminder of the delicate balance between patience and urgency – and an example that anything can happen in the draft.
"It could get wild,” Cunningham said. “Sit back and watch.”
Chris Emma covers the Bears, Chicago’s sports scene and more for 670TheScore.com. Follow him on Twitter @CEmma670.