6 active MLB stars who are potential Hall of Famers — but not complete locks

Career stats: 2,624 hits, 334 HR, 1,302 RBI, 1,257 R, .303/.352/.492, 69.1 WAR, 59.2 JAWS (7th)
Career achievements: 8x All-Star, 5x Silver Slugger, 2x Gold Glove, 1x World Series champion

Though this list is sorted in alphabetical order by last name, it's also appropriate that Cano should come first so that we can get the easy one out of the way before all the rest. MLB writer Ken Rosenthal may have summed it up best after Cano was suspended for a full 162-game season after his second failed performance-enhancing drug test.

"Canó has ruined his good name and almost certainly can forget about election to the Hall of Fame, an honor that seemed likely before his first suspension and still might have been possible if he had not received his second."

And Rosenthal is right about the fact that the honor probably would've been his based on the numbers. After all, in terms of his JAWS, Cano sits above names like Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio — all Hall of Famers — and could continue to build upon that case in a year. The only player with more home runs than him at the position is Jeff Kent (377), and Cano is the only second baseman with 300 home runs and a .300 career average. In fact, the 300 home run and .300 batting average club only holds 27 members, period.

The question becomes, then, if names like Alex Rodriguez, Bonds and others eventually get in, on what basis should the BBWAA or veterans committee keep Cano out? Is it because he claimed that he'd "never do anything to cheat the rules of the game" of baseball and then did it anyway ... a second time? Should the steroid users get in some day, Cano's debate will finally be interesting.

Verdict (for now): No

Career stats: 163 wins, 122 losses, 3.43 ERA, 2,560 K, 8.5 K/9, 3.34 K/BB, 58.4 WAR, 48.4 JAWS (80th)
Career achievements: 4x All-Star, 1x World Series champion, 1x World Series MVP, 1x NLCS MVP

Here's a case in which you really wonder if pitching wins should be used in evaluating pitchers at all, because that's the primary red flag statistic here. For instance, Hamels had a career-best 2.46 ERA in 2014. His record that season? 9-9. The season before, when he had a respectable 3.26 FIP that ranked in the top 20 in MLB, he went 8-14.

Hamels also has a nice postseason resume, with a 7-6 record and a 3.41 ERA. He was instrumental in the Phillies' championship run in 2008, with two series MVP awards, a 4-0 record and a 1.80 ERA in five starts.

But there's the real possibility that Hamels has thrown his last pitch in the majors — he's still a free agent, without much reported interest from teams around the league — and if that's the case, is his resume special enough or is he in that David Cone realm of great-but-not-spectacular? JAWS puts Hamels fairly lower than Cone, actually, with pitchers like Chuck Finley and Orel Hershiser ranked around him.

What may plague Hamels is that he never had that stretch of "unhittable" dominance that so many other Hall of Famers displayed. And unless he gets to 3,000 strikeouts, the likelihood of which is fading into oblivion with every passing day as a free agent, you have to be an optimist to view him as a Hall of Famer.

Verdict (for now): No

Career stats: 193 wins, 111 losses, 3.60 ERA, 2,397 K, 8.3 K/9, 2.86 K/BB, 45.0 WAR, 39.6 JAWS (151st)
Career achievements: 5x All-Star, 3x World Series champion, 1x NLCS MVP

Jon Lester will reach 200 wins and 2,500 strikeouts in all likelihood. Those aren't the golden boundaries that determine someone's Hall of Fame candidacy, but it's definitely a combination of achievements that means something. There are 32 pitchers in history who have crossed both of those thresholds, and 22 of them are Hall of Famers. The other 10 include Clemens, Schilling, CC Sabathia, Verlander and Greinke — all of who have Hall-of-Fame numbers but aren't in because they're either not yet eligible or because of non-statistical reasons.

But there are also names like Mickey Lolich, Chuck Finley and Frank Tanana in that group, who seem like paragons of the Hall of Good-to-Very Good pitchers. Is that where Lester deserves to end up? His three World Series rings and his strong overall postseason pitching, both in quality and quantity (9-7, 2.51 ERA in 22 starts), might give him a leg up.

Like Hamels, he never had a completely and utterly untouchable season, though Lester did finish in the top five in Cy Young voting on three separate occasions, including when he was the 2016 runner-up. Still, it feels like he's lacking that Hall of Fame ceiling that recent inductees reached.

If Lester retires today, he might not be a Hall of Famer. But if he joins the 200-win, 2,500-strikeout clubs, it becomes easier to see him join the Jack Morris branch of Hall of Fame pitchers.

Verdict (for now): Yes — after multiple years on BBWAA ballot or via the veterans committee

Career stats: 2,001 hits, 160 HR, 932 RBI, 713 R, .281/.333/.404, 40.4 WAR, 34.6 JAWS (24th)
Career achievements: 9x All-Star, 9x Gold Glove, 4x Platinum Glove, 2x World Series, 1x Silver Slugger

JAWS isn't too kind to Molina here. Jason Kendall? Darrell Porter? Jim Sundberg? They're all higher than Molina on the list of JAWS leaders at the catcher position. But Kendall, Porter and Sundberg combined for 10 All-Star appearances, just one more than Molina has earned in his career. And whereas Molina has really been the face of his team for years and years, I don't believe that to be the case for many other catchers, period (except for the one below).

Molina's defensive prowess is second to ... very few, seeing as Ivan Rodriguez, Gary Carter and Bob Boone are the only catchers with a higher dWAR than him, though Molina can easily supersede the latter two with even an average effort in 2021 and beyond. And with more than 2,000 hits and a career average above .275 — a feat that only six other catchers (and four Hall of Famers) have achieved — he certainly has the offensive chops as well.

He'll build on that case over the next year and should have everything he needs to get in on a strong case, despite JAWS and other analytics viewing him a little less favorably.

Verdict (for now): Yes — through BBWAA ballot

Career stats: 1,380 hits, 140 HR, 673 RBI, 595 R, .302/.370/.456, 41.8 WAR, 39.2 JAWS (16th)
Career achievements: 1x MVP, Rookie of the Year, 6x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, 1x Batting Title, 3x World Series

Without any context, you'd look at the counting stats and wonder how Posey has a legitimate case for the Hall of Fame. Then you look at the analytics and the JAWS listing — where he's higher than Molina despite recording more than 2,500 fewer at-bats — and you can see where the basis of the argument is founded, namely an impressive WAR7 peak and a good amount of hardware. And then you look at the hardware, and that's a real big list.

The problem is, outside that peak, Posey doesn't have the longevity or the consistency that most Hall of Famers have. He definitely has more time to add to that resume, as he will be 34 years old for the 2021 season and should be healthy, if a little rusty, after opting out of the shortened 2020 campaign due to health concerns for his new twin babies.

No one is going to punish that decision-making from Posey, but even if he had added a handful of hits and home runs in a shortened season, it wouldn't add much to his overall numbers. This year is a big one for a lot of reasons, seeing as the last time we saw Posey he underwhelmed (.257/.320/.368) and he's in a potential contract year. If he continues on a similar trajectory, he won't ever be a lock, but everything he did at his peak as the face of a three-time World Series winner should be enough.

Verdict (for now): Yes — through BBWAA ballot