The AL Central went from being called the worst division in baseball to making up 75% of the divisional matchups in the American League for the 2024 post season, and the Guardians will be facing a familiar foe in the Detroit Tigers for their ALDS matchup. The Guardians are coming off a first-round bye and a week of rest while the Tigers are coming off a sweep of the Astros in the Wild Card and have been the best team in baseball through August and September.
This is a series that is likely going to be won by inches, not miles. So who has the edge in this series?
Lineup
The Guardians and the Tigers have a very similar identity in their lineup, in that both sides put a lot of balls in play and subsequently can rack up the RBIs with easy base hits. This is a strategy that got the Guardians to the ALDS in 2022, but was not a strategy that could get them past the Yankees. But this year the Guardians bats have lit up, with Jose Ramirez falling only one home run short of the 40-40 club (although if the Guardians had played game 162 it’s very likely Ramirez would have made the club), and Josh Naylor is not far behind with 31 home runs. Steven Kwan leads the lineup with a .292 batting average, and Andres Gimenez has 22 doubles and 9 home runs on the season while batting .252. For the Tigers, Riley Greene is their leading home run hitter with 24 on the season. Behind Greene, Matt Vierling has 28 home runs on the season with a .257 average and Cole Keith is batting .260 with 15 doubles, four triples, and 13 home runs.
“I think they are similarly built to us,” Tanner Bibee said of the Tiger’s lineup. “Very grindy. They'll wear you down, wait till they get their pitch. They're not going to punch out a lot and going to put the ball in play.”
The Tigers bats are good, but the Guardians bats are better.
Edge: Guardians
Rotation
With all respect to Tanner Bibee, when you match up ace vs. ace for the Guardians and Tigers, Detroit easily comes out on top with Tarik Skubal, who is likely to win the Cy Young this year. His arsenal is borderline unhittable and has been trouble for every lineup he’s faced – most recently the Astros lineup, who got shut out by Skubal through six innings in their Wild Card matchup. But beyond that, the Tigers don’t have a lot of strength in their rotation, and A. J. Hinch has had to get creative. Even though the Guardians have had rotation issues this year after losing Shane Bieber to injury and Triston McKenzie being sent back down to Columbus, Cleveland has built a very solid row of pitchers behind Bibee. Ben Lively has been an unexpected surprise arm after being called up from Columbus, and Matthew Boyd has been lights out almost every single start since being picked up by Cleveland and returning from injury. While the Tigers have the ace, the Guardians have the depth.
Edge: Draw
Bullpen
There is almost no argument against the Guardians’ bullpen being one of the best in baseball. Cleveland’s bullpen is known for two things: holding teams scoreless and Emmanuel Clase. The Guardians’ bullpen has posted a 2.57 ERA, and while the Tigers have the next best pen in the American League, their ERA is close to full run higher at 3.55. And when you have a closer who has made his way into the Cy Young conversation, you know you have something special. The Tigers have utilized their bullpen in a way that is chaotic and unpredictable and have been a big part of their late-season magic, but the Guardians’ bullpen has been dominant all season long with no signs of slowing down.
Edge: Guardians
Experience
The Guardians have made it to October 6 of the last 9 seasons, including a World Series appearance in 2016, while the Tigers haven’t made it to the post season since 2014, with their last post season series win in 2013. But save for the team, the real experience is going to come from the skippers. Stephen Vogt has been beyond impressive in his first year as a manager, but A. J. Hinch lead a dominant Astros team for four years that included a World Series win. Bringing the Tigers from being a middle of the road team to knocking the Twins out of a Wild Card spot and then sweeping the Astros is not a fluke, it’s the mark of a tough manager who knows how to win big games.
Edge: Tigers
Momentum
The baseball season is long, and when you have to grind your way through a Wild Card Series, it’s even longer. The Guardians have gotten some much needed rest with their first-round bye, but after being the most dominant team in baseball since August, the Tigers have continued their late-season magic sweeping the Astros in the Wild Card.
“I think that's one of the biggest challenges of getting that first round bye is you're playing against a team that just won a playoff series. There's no bigger momentum you can have than coming off a playoff win,” Austin Hedges said ahead of their Game 1 match up. “So we know the Tigers have been hot for a long time now. It's not just a playoff win. They've been the best team in baseball for a long time. And you know they've played us tough all year. So we have our hands full, but we're prepared.”
While the Guardians are undoubtedly prepared for a team they’ve faced 13 times in the regular season, it’s going to be a battle to stop the hottest team in baseball.
Edge: Tigers
This might be one of the most – if not the most – evenly matched series of all the divisional series. Although the Guardians have been dominant all season, the Tigers got hot and stayed hot at the right time, and more often than not those are the teams that go deep, and even all the way (I’m looking at you, 2019 Nationals). Making predictions for this series is quite frankly a coin toss, and if the Guardians can make it past the Tigers I wouldn’t be surprised if they make it all the way.