We are at the halfway point of the MLB season (fine, we are technically past the half way point of the season, but if you want an exact science, study physics!)
The Cleveland Indians sit at 45-42, they are 7.5 games out of first place in the AL Central and 4.0 games out of the wild card.
After the nine game losing streak from hell, the Indians rattled off three in a row over the Royals and everything was starting to come up Milhouse!
Well, until Saturday night when Audacy MLB Insider, Jon Heyman tweeted this out into the world,
Then the fanbase descended into a combination of angry “DOLANS ARE CHEAP!” tweets and depressing “well it was fun while it lasted” tweets.
Let me talk to the depressed group first, we know Cleveland will always pick up the phone when the trade calls are made. They may not pull the trigger on those trades, but Chris Antonetti has told and shown us numerous times, the organization is willing to make moves at the deadline.
I see this as Antonetti and Mark Chernoff looking at the potential starting pitching market and realizing it is a serious seller’s market. The best starting arm available before the July 31 deadline is Jose Berrios, who we all know has the ability to be excellent. After Berrios, it is Kyle Gibson of the Texas Rangers. Gibson, is having a fantastic season in 2021 (2.29 ERA, 21.7 K percentage and a 7.6 BB percentage) but he is a sinker baller who has improved his sinker movement causing hitters to not be able to barrel it. Props to him, but some teams may be looking at Gibson’s Statcast data and seeing this could be some serious fool’s gold because he relies on hitters making soft contact. The third best arm at the deadline is Tyler Anderson of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Anderson being third best is kind of like Omar’s ability to speak Italian in Inglorious Bastards.
This is a long way of saying, if a team wants to pay $1.50 on the dollar because the demand far out weights the supply, you have to listen and possibly take it. I can not stress this enough, I do not want them to trade Civale, Bieber or Plesac. My goal is to win games and if you trade one or more of the three, you should turn the “Days until Opening Day” sign into “Days until Browns Training Camp starts.”
For the rest of the people mentioned in the Heyman tweet, I know relievers are erratic and bullpens are inconsistent from year to year, but Karinchak seems like he will be above average for the next few years. He is throwing harder than last year and the curve ball has more vertical drop than last season. He is also under club control though 2026 and we all know how much Cleveland loves guys under club control.
Now, to the “DOLANS ARE CHEAP” crowd, you aren’t wrong. It is why what I believe this team will move any veteran on a one year contract at the deadline. I believe Eddie Rosario, Bryan Shaw and Cesar Hernandez will be playing for another team on August 1, pending health of course.
They are not going to get any great prospects back, but the Indians are really good when it comes to cashing in on small fringe trades.
Mike Clevenger came to Cleveland in the Vinnie Pestano trade with the Angels, Carlos Santana came over in the Casey Blake to the Dodgers trade and so on.
The interesting thing is I can see them wanting to buy at the deadline if a player is out there who is under club control for the next few years. This seems like a gap year in the contention window with how the injuries and production have followed. Plus, I can’t see them ripping this down to the studs as the Twins are heading south and the Tigers and Royals looks two years away.
Cleveland’s best prospects are at A or AA, so if a rebuilding team believes it is two or three years away from it’s window of contention and they have a player who can help Cleveland compete in the next two seasons, there is a move to be made there.
I continue to circle back to Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates, who is 26 will be a free agent after the 2025 season. He is a switch hitting centerfielder who may be better suited in a corner outfield spot, but you can do a lot worse as Cleveland has proven. Reynolds has come into his own this season hitting 304/390/524 with 16 HR with power to all fields. He has raised his walk rate, dropped his strikeout rate and added power, in other words, he has had the dream 2021 season. It is funny how you can boil this sport down to “getting on base more, is good.”
Now it is going to cost a serious prospect haul to get Reynolds, it will take a Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, George Valera, Nolan Jones- level prospect to start the conversation. Hell, it may take two of them and a member of the Oscar Mercado, Daniel Johnson, outfield log jam. I would do it in a second, but I am trying to win again in the next year. What Antonetti/Chernoff will do is a completely different question.
The Indians have sniffed around Joey Gallo for what feels like a decade. He will be available again, but he is free agent eligible in 2023, which means you have two runs with him if you count this season.
He is still Joey Gallo from a numbers standpoint. He is hitting 239/402/522 with 24 HR and an average exit velocity of 92.4 MPH good for 34th in baseball.
Gallo falls into the same category as Mitch Hanigar (though the Mariners are winning) and Trey Mancini. They are guys who can help you win now, but are good as gone after the 2022 season. I do not see the Indians trading for anyone they do not have control over for at least the next two seasons after 2021, so these guys are out.
I do not see them trading any of the starters or bullpen pieces under club control past 2023. I believe the organization sees this season as a hiccup in their window of contention, which they will use to evaluate the young players and see who can help this team for years to come.
Three Quick Thoughts
1. The Bucks are not out of this. Khris Middleton needs to play better on both ends of the ball and Jrue Holiday needs to score more and keep it up on the defensive end. I think we head back to Phoenix tied at two.
2. I love the Open Championship for a few reasons, 1. Morning golf is fantastic because you can watch a to of golf and still get things done in the afternoon. 2. We go in knowing the wind will be whipping and it will probably rain for a good chunk.
3. There is something about playing on a golf course built in 1887 that is just plain cool.
3. It is really nice to see a movie in the movie theater again. The big screen and sound system in a theater is so much better than watching movies at home.