Wild Card Weekend is here and the BetQL staff has broken down some best bets in this round for you!
Dan Karpuc: Broncos +8.5 at Bills
Under rookie QB Bo Nix, the Broncos have gone an impressive 12-5 ATS this season and travel to Buffalo to take on a dangerous, yet exploitable Bills team. While Buffalo’s offense under MVP candidate Josh Allen has been elite, their defense has been terrible in the second half of the season, which could be an issue against former Super Bowl winner Sean Payton, who has been the best coach in the entire NFL on the road or neutral site since 2018 (33-17-1 ATS), per Action Network. If Denver gets out to a lead, they’ll certainly attempt to play keep-away with a heavy run and high-percentage pass game plan. Nix has thrown 14 touchdowns (most in the NFL) compared to only one interception when his team has had the lead this season. The BetQL NFL Model projects Denver at +3.5, thus labeling them as a 5-star value, and I’m right in line with that in my mind. I also might consider betting the Broncos’ moneyline as well. In Bo I trust!
Lucy Burdge: Commanders +3 vs. Buccaneers
I think this will be a close game, even if the Commanders lose this could be a difference of one or two points. The Buccaneers are averaging just one point more per game than the Commanders and the Commanders have covered two of their last three spreads. While the Buccaneers have only covered one of their last three. Todd Bowles even agreed that the Commanders are a better team now than they were in Week 1 when the Buccaneers beat them. So I like the Commanders to cover this spread.
Matt Horner: Rams +1.5 vs. Vikings
I have talked plenty of times in my articles and on podcasts/shows about how I view the Minnesota Vikings. I have always been very skeptical of their run, having one of the easiest schedules in the NFC, and they were exposed against the Detroit Lions last week. I do not trust Sam Darnold, and while he is a good story, he is the new Case Keenum for Minnesota. They would be insane to trade away J.J. McCarthy because Darnold has one great year. He was back to seeing ghosts against the Lions. I am no huge fan of the Rams either, but I also think they will win this football game. They have the much better QB with more playoff experience, and even if Los Angeles has to be the weakest home field of all 32 teams, they will still be on familiar turf. A 14-3 team is basically a pick ‘em against a 10-7 team, and there is a reason for that.
Kate Constable: Steelers +10 vs. Ravens
The Steelers getting 10 points is way too many for this AFC North rivalry. As PJ Glasser pointed out on Send It In the other day, this is the largest spread ever in a Ravens-Steelers matchup. Since 2015, these two teams have played 20 times and only four games have been decided by a touchdown or more. The underdog is also 16-3-1 ATS in those 20 games. The Steelers are limping into the postseason with four straight losses while the Ravens have won their last four. Still, this is too many points so I’ll back the dog and take the Steelers to cover.
Ameer Tyree: Chargers -3 at Texans
The Chargers finished out the regular season on a high note by winning three straight games while the Texans secured a meaningless win against the Titans after losing their second best receiver for the year. CJ Stroud will be down a key weapon against a visiting teams that excels at getting after the quarterback an slowing down the run game. Los Angeles should comfortably cover here. Even on the road.
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