ST. LOUIS (KMOX)- The start of February has usually been a little bit of dead time for the baseball world.
With the Super Bowl week happening in this time of the year, baseball is usually out of the spotlight until the clocks hit double zeros at around 9 p.m. Sunday night central time, then the path to baseball begins with teams reporting to Spring Training in the few days after it.
February is also a good time for the baseball websites to send out their projections on the upcoming season, which is a good way to get clicks and get some discussion on social media, radio or TV to just fill some time.
Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs released their 2024 preseason projections over the last few days, and it likes the Cardinals.
PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus projection, has the Cardinals winning the NL Central with 85 games, five more than second-place Chicago Cubs and giving the club a 63.2% chance to make the playoffs, while FanGraphs likes the Cardinals a little bit less than PECOTA, but still have the Cardinals winning the NL Central at 84 wins and the gap between the Cardinals and Cubs a little tighter, but still gives the team a 55.6% chance to make the playoffs.
In both projections, they unsurprisingly have the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves achieve a higher win total than the Cardinals in the National League and the Arizona Diamondback having a near similar record than the Cardinals, while FanGraphs thinks the Philadelphia Phillies will be slightly better than Cardinals, compared to PECOTA, who gives the Cardinals a slight edge over the Phillies.
Some fans in Cardinals might be surprised with how the both projections give the Cardinals a good chance to win the NL Central despite not getting a top-tier starter to be alongside Sonny Gray, but when fans take a look at a deep dive at the other teams in the Central, there hasn't been quite a lot of significant improvements made by their rivals.
The Milwaukee Brewers will likely regress with the losses of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Craig Counsell, along with the future of shortstop Willy Adames still remaining murky in the air.
The Pittsburgh Pirates unsurprisingly haven't had a whole lot of activity this offseason besides bringing in starter Martin Perez and reliever Aroldis Chapman on one-year deals from Texas and acquiring outfielder Edward Olivares from the Kansas City Royals
The Chicago Cubs have had some activity with the signings of starter Shota Imanaga, reliever Hector Neris and replacing manager David Ross with Counsell, but have yet to replace their Cody Bellinger-sized hole in the outfield or get close to bringing him back.
The Cincinnati Reds have been active, adding relievers Emilio Pagan and Brent Suter, along with third baseman Jander Candelario and signing starters Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, though questions about the rotation will be a watch in 2024, especially if Montas injury woes continue, Nick Lodolo takes a long time to recover back from 2023 season-ending injury and Hunter Greene doesn't continue to improve in his third-full season in the rotation.
While the Cardinals rotation additions of Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are rather uninspiring, it does give the Cardinals rotation the ability to eat innings and get deeper into the games and with a good amount of additions to the bullpen, chances are the Cardinals won't blow nearly 30 games in 2024 like they did last year.
Granted, Bellinger, third-baseman Matt Chapman, and starters Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, along with many other free agents are still available as pitchers and catchers are set to report within the next week and there's still time for them to find a home.
Baseball fans should takes this projections with a light grain of salt, but with the pessimism from Cardinal Nation for 2024 after their disastrous 2023 season, and their tough start to the 2024 season, the Cardinals front office has made it an effort to improve both the rotation and bullpen, and compared to their rivals, they have been more active then them this offseason. There is some hope that the Cardinals can win the 2024 Central Division.