Aaron Judge should (and will) win the 2022 American League MVP Award.
But as some have tried to articulate why Judge should edge out the reigning winner, Shohei Ohtani, they've stumbled into making bad faith (or maybe just bad) arguments.
Judge is putting together a historic offensive campaign, as he currently leads baseball in home runs (57), RBIs (123), on-base percentage (.413), slugging percentage (.688), OPS (1.102), OPS+ (208), intentional walks (16) and total bases (16).
Not only is Judge closing in on becoming the only active player to hit 60 home runs in a single season, but he has a 9.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs. The only active position players to post a 10 fWAR in a single season are Mike Trout (2012, 2013) and Mookie Betts (2018).
WAR is not the only stat that needs to be factored in when weighing who should win the award, but given the uniqueness of Ohtani, it's perhaps the only somewhat accurate way to compare Judge to Ohtani as both a hitter and a pitcher.
And for as great of a season as Ohtani is having, his combined WAR between hitting and pitching this season is 8.1. That's not to say that Ohtani isn't the most valuable player in baseball currently -- he almost certainly is. But in terms of who has been the most valuable player in 2022, Judge has been such a great hitter, coupled with above average fielding, that he's outproduced Ohtani in 2022.
That's it. That's the case to make for why Judge should win the AL MVP, preventing Ohtani from repeating as the winner.
Instead, though, there's been an argument made fairly frequently that Ohtani couldn't possibly be providing more value than Judge because the Angels are 61-82, as opposed to an 87-56 record from the Yankees.
That's a very flawed argument. This is an individual award. Of course you can be the most valuable individual player but not have 25 other players on the roster around you producing enough for you to be on a great (or even good) team. Ohtani won the AL MVP a season ago when the Angels were 77-85. The Angels were well below .500 when Mike Trout won the award in 2016 and 2019. Bryce Harper won the National League MVP in 2015 and 2021, and didn't play in the postseason in either case. Alex Rodriguez rightfully won the AL MVP in 2003 when he hit 47 home runs, despite the Texas Rangers finishing at 71-91.
Is there anyone in the world that believes that if you swapped Judge and Ohtani that the Angels would all of a sudden have a good team? Of course not. Even if Judge hit 60 home runs for the 2022 Angels, they would still be a bad team. And if you put Ohtani on the Yankees and he turned in the same results he has for the Angels this season, New York would still be seen as a World Series contender.
Ultimately, Judge should (and will) win the AL MVP because he's been the more valuable individual player in 2022, and this is an individual award.
LISTEN on the Audacy App
Sign Up and Follow Audacy Sports
Facebook | Twitter | Instagram