The Best Post-Draft NFL Bets for MVP, Playoff Teams, and More

Eli Hershkovich produces/hosts the You Better You Bet podcast on RADIO.COM Sports.

Of all the major pro sports dealing with uncertainty amid the COVID-19 outbreak, the NFL appears to be the league with the fewest number of holes, representing a multi-billion-dollar industry with a clear-cut plan in place. Even if the season is unable to start on Sept. 10, schedule-makers are prepared to push back the Super Bowl three weeks while keeping the 16-game schedule intact.

Is this just my excuse for placing NFL futures bets in May? Maybe.

But with the NFL betting market already making an adjustment after the draft, it’s important to recognize value before there’s more of a correction. Without further ado, here are my favorite non-Super Bowl futures via Kambi sportsbook.

Before diving into the Cowboys’ fifth-year starter, let’s break down his receiving corps. Per fantasy football guru Evan Silva, Amari Cooper ranked eighth in yards per route run last season (among 86 wide receivers), and breakout candidate Michael Gallop tallied the sixth-most receiving yards per game. That’s not all, though.

Ex-Oklahoma wideout Ceedee Lamb produced the highest yards per route run from the slot across college football while fourth-year tight end Blake Jarwin accumulated the sixth-most yards per target at his position.

Considering Prescott finished tied for the fourth-highest yards per attempt a season ago with an incompetent coach in Jason Garrett, expect a monster season with Mike McCarthy in the fold and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore having a heavier influence with play design. Dallas has a legitimate shot to challenge for the No. 1 seed in the NFC if its youthful secondary makes an impact after losing cornerback Byron Jones.

This price has been steamed down as well, but Detroit’s expected positive regression shouldn’t be ignored. Matt Patricia’s team went 3-8-1 in one-possession games last season — five of those losses without quarterback Matthew Stafford.

General manager Bob Quinn would’ve been more well-suited to address Detroit’s defensive line issues before the third round, drafting cornerback Jeff Okudah and tailback D’Andre Swift prior to nabbing Notre Dame defensive end Julian Okwara. But with an improved defensive backfield and a slightly more explosive offense, Detroit possesses enough firepower to challenge the Packers and Bears, especially given Green Bay’s likely negative regression (8-1 straight-up in one-score games).

Minnesota strung together a fine draft, replacing Stefon Diggs with first rounder Justin Jefferson, and it’ll continue to contend for a division title. But as long as Matt Patricia and Darrell Bevell aren’t clowns, there’s value to be had in Motown.

The Ravens and Steelers aren’t fading away, and the Bengals’ offense should explode once Joe Burrow — who opened with 200-1 odds to win the 2019 Heisman — finds a rhythm at the next level. But don’t count the Browns out of the postseason picture, especially with the addition of another wild-card team in each conference.

Cleveland went 2-4 in one-score games last campaign, and their strength of schedule eases up from the ninth-toughest to the third-easiest across the NFL. They also notched the eighth-worst fumble luck, proving that positive regression should be en route. Replacing Freddie Kitchens with ex-Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, whose offense is tailor-made for Baker Mayfield, should be a massive plus as well.

Following upgrades at offensive line and tight end, led by ex-Titans’ right tackle Jake Conklin, first rounder Jedrick Wills, ex-Falcons TE Austin Hooper and rookie Harrison Bryant, the pieces are in place for Mayfield to show more of the promise he displayed as a rookie.

Look for the Browns’ defense to also make strides after tying for the 11th-most opponents’ yards per play in 2019, upgrading at all three levels defensively after nabbing Wills.

I’m waiting for this win total to shoot up to O/U 9 — even if there’s a bit of juice attached.

There’s an assumption that Buffalo is automatically positioned to win the AFC East with Tom Brady departing New England for Tampa Bay. But after winning just one game against teams above .500 last season, doing so against the then-Marcus Mariota-led Titans, the Bills are set to face the league’s fifth-toughest schedule. Even with a dominant defense, there’s plenty of opportunity for variance against enhanced competition.

On top of that, Bills signal caller Josh Allen finished tied for the third-lowest yards per pass attempt across the NFL, and I’m not expecting the sudden improvement that some see coming despite the addition of the aforementioned Diggs.

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