College basketball conference play is in full swing as the calendar flips to January and we are about to be peppered with fantastic matchups across the board nightly.
A reminder, lines for college basketball games do not come out until about 24 hours ahead of tip, so we use KenPom’s projected spread and total for this weekly preview.
Let’s take a look at some high profile matchups in four different conferences this week:
Northwestern at Iowa (-9, 157) - Tuesday, December 29
Northwestern has been one of the best stories of the young season, winning its first three Big Ten games against quality competition. First, it was a win at home against Michigan State, then Indiana on the road, before upsetting Ohio State in comeback fashion last Saturday.
Iowa on the other hand lost its last game to Minnesota on Christmas night in overtime after blowing a late lead. Now they host Northwestern in a good spot to bring the Wildcats back down to earth.
Northwestern profiles similarly to Iowa. The team moves the ball incredibly well, third in the country in assist percentage at over 73%. It also helps that the team is shooting lights out from beyond the arc, collectively hitting just under 41% from three.
Match that up with an Iowa team that has deadeye shooters all over and posts the eighth best assist percentage in the country. An eye-popping 33% of the Hawkeyes points come from deep, so this should be a battle of strength on strength.
What Northwestern lacks is a big to contain Player of the Year candidate Luka Garza. Garza is averaging 28.8 points and 10 rebounds per game. He’s virtually unstoppable with his wide array of post moves and ability to step out and knock down outside jumpers. Coming off the loss, Iowa should be able to find its shooting stroke and limit Northwestern from deep, a team playing a bit over its head right now.
It’s tough to stay off any Iowa over, the team is 8-1 to the over this year, and would jump on it at open. I can’t imagine people are going to be betting Iowa unders at this point, so I expect the total to continue driving up ahead of tip-off.
Tennessee (-2, 132) at Missouri - Wednesday December 30
I highlighted in my college basketball futures preview that Tennessee is one of the most undervalued teams in the country. With that being said, the Vols are going to have the platform Tuesday night to announce itself as a true contender and the class of the SEC, on the road against Missouri.
Missouri owns a win over Illinois, but Tennessee is a rough matchup for them. While the home team does defend the three very well this season, top 15 in the country in opponent three-point percentage, Tennessee is not overly reliant from deep, less than 30% of its shots come from beyond the arc.
Instead, Tennessee pounds it down low with the likes of John Fulkerson and crashes the glass incredibly well to generate second chances, a weak spot in the MIssouri defense.
I also think that Missouri’s weak turnover rate, 282nd in the nation according to KenPom, could cause some issues. If Tennessee is going to get second chances and not be turned over often, Missouri will have to play the perfect offensive game against one of the best defenses in the country. I don’t see that happening here.
Tennessee is poised to make a statement come Wednesday night and will take out Missouri on the road. I would play this only at -2 or shorter, though as this can be a rock fight and come down to the final minutes.
Texas at Kansas (-3, 137) - Saturday, January 2
I’m interested to see where this line opens up. It feels like many have forgotten the impressive run from Texas in the Maui Invitational in North Carolina about a month back, beating physical teams including Indiana and North Carolina en route to the title.
While UT fell at home to an impressive Villanova team, they are in a great spot against Bill Self’s Jayhawks that is always a National Title threat, but not as strong as in recent years.
Yes, Kansas went into Lubbock in its Big 12 opener and beat Texas Tech, but the Longhorns present more of an offensive threat, while also possessing the size to hang with the Jayhawks.
I do think that guard play ultimately decides this one, and I have been impressed with the trio of Andrew Jones, Courtney Ramey, and Maui hero Matt Coleman. The Longhorns have a freshman big in Greg Brown who has impressed early, as well as two sophomores in the frontcourt in Jericho Sims and Kai Jones to anchor a well balanced rotation.
Kansas finds itself in a lot of isolation situations and reliant on the three-point shot to pull out these close games. While Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Wilson have both been stellar thus far, the Jayhawks are going to be handed its second L of the season in Austin.
Texas can hang with this Kansas team that may be getting too much credit in the market. At +3 or higher, I’ll be on the Longhorns.
Duke (-1, 143) at Florida State - Saturday, January 2
Both these teams play Tuesday night, so the numbers are likely going to change ahead of what could be the two top contenders in the ACC this season.
There is still no update as of Monday on Duke forward Jalen Johnson, who was ruled out indefinitely with a foot injury ahead of the team’s last game two weeks ago against Notre Dame. For better or worse, I’m going to prepare for this one as if Johnson is not playing.
I’m not very high on this Duke team from what I have seen thus far, especially against high end competition. Both Michigan State and Illinois forced Duke to heave from the outside, the Blue Devils shot 10-of-45 from deep combined in those two losses.
Florida State has been susceptible to the three-pointer, allowing opponents to shoot 35%, but with the length its defense has I expect them to see some positive regression as the season goes on.
FSU is one of the biggest team’s in the country, second in average height according to KenPom, which should spell trouble for a Duke squad that relies on three sub-6’3” guards in D.J. Steward, Jeremy Roach, and Jordan Goldwire. Duke’s inability to penetrate through the length of FSU could make this a perimeter oriented contest again for the Blue Devils.
I’ll take my chances with FSU do-it-all freshman Scottie Barnes and company to pound it inside, generate easier looks, and grab this road victory.
Florida State as a home underdog would be a surefire play here, and I will be playing them inside of -3 if the market moves towards the host. This will be an interesting line to watch given the public’s tendency to bet on Duke, despite what I see as an overrated and outmanned squad on the road.