A champion will be crowned on Monday night when Alabama and Ohio State meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
Alabama enters as the prohibitive favorite after a convincing 31-14 victory over Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl. However, the story is its opponent, Ohio State, who took down Clemson, 49-28 in the Sugar Bowl.
Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are currently 8.5-point favorites, according to BetMGM Sunday morning, with a sky high total of 75.5.
There were reports of a COVID-19 outbreak within the Ohio State team throughout the week, but the spread and total have not made any seismic changes despite the questions.
Can Ohio State do it again?
Ohio State proved its legitimacy with its impressive win over Trever Lawrence and the Tigers, but now the attention turns to a much more difficult opponent in Alabama, and also more external factors.
Ohio State had several COVID-19 tests last week but were able to clear a final round of testing to head to Miami for the game. We do not know who will be inactive just yet, but it is something to keep an eye on ahead of game time. The Buckeyes will need all hands on deck against the best team in college football, Alabama, on Monday night.
The Crimson Tide defense shut down Notre Dame’s offense, holding them to under five yards per play. The scoreboard did not do justice to the beating Alabama dolled out. The Tide’s prolific offense averaged a shade under eight yards per play and the game was all but wrapped up by halftime.
Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields commands a much more dangerous offense than the Notre Dame unit, but there has to be some cause for concern after the vicious shot he took to the ribs during the Clemson game. Fields returned, and put on a stellar performance, going 22-of-28 for 385 yards and six touchdowns, but he was also in noticeable pain throughout the game.
Could there be lingering effects for Fields in a game where the Buckeyes offense is going to have to score touchdowns on almost every possession to keep up?
There will be fireworks in this one, but looking at explosive play metrics, Alabama graded out better than the Clemson defense in limiting explosive runs and explosive passes this season, according to CollegeFootballData.
Crimson Tide linebackers Christain Harris and Dylan Moses have been outstanding at linebacker and should be able to play a role in limiting Buckeyes running back Trey Sermon from ripping off as many chunk plays as he did in his past two games. Sermon has put up an eye-popping 524 yards in wins over Clemson and Northwestern.
Not to mention Alabama’s corner Patrick Surtain will be the best player in the secondary on either side. He’ll be tasked with shadowing Buckeye receiver Chris Olave, who had six catches for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win over Clemson.
Alabama’s Offense should dominate, again
Looking at the Buckeyes’ defense, the game script called for it, but Lawrence was able to throw for 400 yards in the loss. As noted in the semifinal preview, the Ohio State secondary is a true weakness. While Travis Etienne was a non factor in the run game, this Bama offense is a different beast.
Alabama posts the best receiving corps in the country and that unit gets even more dangerous if Jaylen Waddle is able to play after suffering a fractured ankle earlier in the season. Ohio State is susceptible to getting beat deep and adding Waddle back into the Alabama passing game will be a nightmare for the Buckeyes’ defense to stop.
Behind an offensive line that opened up holes for running back Najee Harris and the backfield to pick up more than five yards a carry this season, expect Alabama to find more success than Clemson did running the ball.
However, the Tide will use its passing game to do the heavy lifting. As mentioned above, OSU’s secondary is the worst position group on the field, and Alabama should have no issue taking advantage.
Mac Jones is completing 77% of his passes and Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith has over 1,600 yards receiving yards. The Buckeye secondary is allowing quarterbacks to complete over 63% of its passes, tied for 93rd in the country, per CFBStats.com. Bama has big play capability on any snap, and Ohio State won’t be able to deter its efficiency.
Points, Points, Points
I’ll be attacking the game by betting the Alabama team total over. The Tide were held to a season low 31 against Notre Dame in a game where the offense saw limited possessions due to Notre Dame’s goal of chewing clock and keeping the Tide’s explosive offense on the sideline.
This Ohio State offense is not like the Irish, though. Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are going to try and go shot for shot with the Tide in order to get a win, as highlighted by the astronomical total of 75.5.
I don’t see many stops in this one and grabbing the Tide Team Total Over at 41.5 is my play. I think Alabama takes home the hardware on Monday, but don’t want to stress about the spread over a touchdown. However, the Tide’s offense should do whatever it wants on Monday, just like it has all season.