The NFC East Champion Washington Football Team will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Saturday Night in the NFC Wild Card round.
Behind an outstanding defense, Washington was able to secure its first division title since 2015. Now they will have to slow down a Tampa Bay offense led by Tom Brady, who is on a quest for his seventh Super Bowl ring.
A 8.5-point betting favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook as of Thursday, the Bucs would be just the third team in NFL history to be a postseason road favorite of more than a touchdown.
Historic on Washington’s Side?
Tampa Bay will enter FedEx Field looking to do something no team has ever done in NFL history, go on the road as a favorite of more than a touchdown and leave with a victory.
As mentioned, this has only happened twice before and both times the favorite has been handed an outright loss. Pittsburgh lost to Tim Tebow’s Broncos as seven-and-a-half point favorites, and New Orleans lost to Seattle as nine-and-a-half point favorites in the infamous “Beast Mode” game.
Only twice has a team with a losing record entered the postseason since the schedule expanded to 16 games, and oddly enough both have won outright; the aforementioned Seahawks in 2010, and the 2015 Carolina Panthers, who were led by current Football Team head coach Ron Rivera. Carolina won the NFC South at 7-8-1 and beat Arizona in the Wild Card round.
Is Brady too old for primetime?
Call it what you want, but the numbers may be on to something, as compiled by Doug Kleizan of ESPN’s Daily Wager:
Brady’s struggles on primetime may be a funny talking point, but this matchup does not set up well for the 43-year-old quarterback. When under pressure this season, Brady’s completion percentage falls to 43.8% and five of his 12 interceptions have come while under duress.
Washington is tied for the fourth highest pressure rate in the NFL, which factors in hurries, sacks, and knockdowns per pass attempt. For Washington, its path to victory starts with its superb defensive line.
Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians seemed optimistic midweek that receiver Mike Evans will be able to play on Saturday after hyperextending his knee versus the Atlanta Falcons, and Brady is going to need his full array of weapons against Washington’s defense that allows less than five yards per play, tied for the second best mark in the NFL.
But can Washington do damage on offense?
Head coach Ron Rivera hinted that Washington may be rotating between Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback on Saturday night with Smith still battling a calf strain. Whether it is Smith, Heinicke, or both, this Washington offense is not going to be able to do much against a physical Tampa Bay defense.
Expecting the Football Team’s offense to move the ball methodically down the field is a fool's errand. The Bucs are inside the top five in adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders, and in the top 10 in yards per play allowed.
The Football Team has been held in check since a Thanksgiving Day explosion against the Cowboys, not breaking 23 points in the five games since.
Does history repeat itself again?
There may be too many things wrong with the Washington offense to scrap together enough points to win this game, but they should be able to make Brady uncomfortable throughout.
Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Chase Young and the Washington front seven should be able to get pressure on TB12, and they are surely going to need to force a turnover or two to make life easier for Smith and the offense.
Washington needs to make this game a rock fight, and a race to 20 points. I jumped on the under at 46.5 and like it all the way down to 44.5.
Washington opened +8.5 but that number went down to 7.5 at some sportsbooks by mid-week, signaling that there is some sharp money coming in on the WFT.
As history has shown, these home underdogs become valuable as the public drifts towards the favorite. Washington likely does not win this one outright, but the defense can keep them within ear shot.
BetQL does see a slight edge in this game as well. The model projects Tampa Bay a 7.5-point favorite, and make Washington a 2 star play at the current number. It may be best to wait for gameday to back Washington, given that public money should flow in on Brady and the Bucs.
Make sure to check out BetQL for more information on Wild Card Weekend!