MLB Mock Draft: Bucs take H.S. SS with #1 pick, Rocker falls to 7th

Carlos Collazo of Baseball America wrote late last month that Mayer "seems to be the favorite" to go No. 1, and considering no one else in the know has come out and debunked that, we're inclined to trust his reporting. While he's a left-handed hitter, Prospects Live noted Mayer's stance is similar to four-time All-Star Manny Machado, and we haven't been able to unsee that. It would likely be a few years before the 18-year-old reaches the major-league level, but he could become the face of what Ben Cherington and company hope will be the next great era of Pirates baseball.

Prospects Live recently reported there is "growing sentiment among scouts and evaluators that Leiter and the Rangers may end up a pair." While it would sting to pass on shortstop Jordan Lawlar (a Dallas native), Leiter would unquestionably reach the majors quicker. Leiter had Jacob deGrom-esque stretches at Vanderbilt this past season, ultimately going 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA in 18 starts. Leiter's workload—he averaged over 100 pitches per start—is a bit worrisome, though he could be an Opening Day starter at Globe Life Field within five years.

Jobe has a decent-enough fastball, but as Joe E. Doyle of Lookout Landing noted, his slider is absolutely filthy, earning him a 70 (on a 20-80 scale) in said scouting report. The 18-year-old obviously wouldn't reach the majors as quickly as Leiter or his Vandy teammate Kumar Rocker, but the idea of him eventually joining Casey Mize at the top of the Tigers rotation is intriguing.

A year after finishing last in the American League East, the Red Sox currently lead baseball in wins, so there's perhaps as much pressure on them to hit with this pick as anyone in the top five because they likely won't get a selection this high again anytime soon. In his sophomore season at Louisville, Davis hit .370 with 15 home runs and 39 RBIs in 49 starts. He could give the Red Sox the same type of stability behind the plate they once had with Jason Varitek.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel has Lawlar ranked as the top overall prospect on his big board, meaning it would be a steal if he made it to the Orioles at No. 5. Defensively, Lawlar is extremely smooth with an enviable release. In his senior year of high school, Lawlar hit .412 and stole 32 bases. Lawlar already measures 6'2"/195 and he's still just 18.

The Diamondbacks are 40 games under .500 and we're not even at the All-Star Break yet. They'll have to fend off the Baltimore Orioles, but a year from now, we may be talking about Arizona considering high-school outfielder Elijah Green for the top pick in 2022. However, as the D'Backs embark on a complete rebuild, it's important they nail this pick first. We have the Snakes taking prep standout Brady House, who currently plays shortstop, but could project as a power-hitting third baseman in the pros, per MLB Pipeline.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel hears that "Kansas City is likely to take Rocker if he gets here, and right now, he's seen as likely to get here." We could easily see a scenario where either the Tigers or Red Sox snag him before the Royals step to the podium at seven, but if not, Rocker could join a bounty of young arms in Kansas City that already includes Asa Lacy, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar.

The Rockies will have a brief reprieve from reality when they host the All-Star Game on July 13, but they're in about as bad a position as any team in the sport right now. The Rockies have limped to a 37-48 record since trading franchise icon Nolan Arenado this offseason and are facing the impending departure—whether it's through a trade or free agency—of Trevor Story. Watson, who MLB Pipeline says has a 65 (on a 20-80 scale) run tool, could be one of the pieces Colorado tries to rebuild with.

In 18 starts for Texas this past season, Madden went 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA. Of Madden, Baseball America says "his durable frame (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), long track record of success and above-average control give him a solid path to being a durable mid-rotation starter." The 21-year-old could make a major-league impact relatively quickly, which has to be a consideration when you haven't made the best of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani's other-worldly talents.

Keith Law of The Athletic says Frelick "looks like a future MLB leadoff hitter," something the Mets could put to the test sooner rather than later. Michael Conforto will be a free agent after this year with Brandon Nimmo headed for the open market in 2022. It's unclear if they'll retain either player, particularly with pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman also on expiring deals. Frelick, who turned 21 in April, could fill a void for New York at the major-league level in relatively short order.

The Nationals won a World Series two years ago behind three dominant arms—Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin—but it's time for them to reload in that department. Scherzer is 36 and headed for free agency after 2021. Strasburg has hardly pitched since winning World Series MVP honors in 2019. Corbin—in year three of a six-year, $140-million deal—has struggled to a 5.56 ERA in 2021. Hoglund went 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 11 games this past season and could join an already-intriguing group of arms in the Nationals farm system, headlined by 2020 first-rounder Cade Cavalli.

The Mariners haven't experienced much in the way of major-league success since Jerry DiPoto took over as general manager in 2015. However, the tide may be changing. Even though they've been without reigning American League Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for much of 2021, the Mariners are a respectable 45-40, keeping them within striking distance in the American League Wild Card race. They're also sitting on what MLB Pipeline recently crowned the No. 3 farm system in baseball. Regardless of whether McClain remains at shortstop or pivots to another position with Gold Glover J.P. Crawford seemingly entrenched there, he's said to have a 60 (on a 20-80 scale) tool in both hitting and running.

Between 2015 and 2017, the Phillies spent three consecutive first-round picks on outfielders, and to this point have very little to show for it. Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley have both appeared at the major-league level but are currently housed in Triple-A with lingering questions over whether either will hit enough to be major-league regulars. 2015 first-round pick Cornelius Randolph is injured at the moment, and while he was having a strong season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley before he got hurt, he still strikes out at an alarming rate. For all the resources the Phillies have used on the outfield, they have uncertain short and long-term futures in both center and left field. Montgomery wouldn't be a sure thing, but The Athletic's Keith Law calls him "a player development project with huge two-way upside if he can simplify his approach." Player development hasn't been a strength of the Phillies in the last 10 years, but they're due, right?

To the surprise of just about everyone, the Giants have a National League-best 53 wins in 2021. That's at least in part because of All-Star starter Buster Posey's resurgence. Still, Posey can become a free agent after this season and is already 34. Ford could be Posey's long-term successor if Joey Bart doesn't pan out. And even if Bart prevents that from happening, MLB Pipeline notes Ford "has the athleticism, quickness and arm to play second base, third base or anywhere in the outfield."

Prospects Worldwide calls Cowser "not an elite talent," but they're high on him defensively, suggesting he could profile as a center-fielder at the major-league level, a position that's become increasingly hard to come by in recent years. While Cowser may not have the ceiling of other first-rounders, the Prospects Worldwide scouting report goes on to say the .354 career college hitter "should compete in the Major Leagues with four tools graded above-average or better."