One of the most polarizing debates leading into next week's NFL Draft is whether the Steelers should select a running back in the first round. For what it's worth, the analytics say "yes."
NFL Media's analytics expert Cynthia Frelund recently broke down the best fits for the top five quarterbacks, running backs and receivers in this year's draft. She based her analysis on each draftee's projected 2021 win share, along with clubs' personnel, coaches and strategy.
Frelund's number crunching led her to determine Alamba's Najee Harris would be the best choice for Pittsburgh at No. 24 overall. He leads all running backs with a projected win share of 0.52 (win share is built around the number of times a player impacts first downs and touchdowns that lead to wins or losses).
The number is inspired by the idea of wins above replacement (WAR) in baseball and real plus-minus in basketball.
"My models show some similarities between Harris and former Steelers star Le'Veon Bell," Frelund writes. "They both have a higher center of gravity than the average back and they share an accelerating running style (both get faster as they run at similar rates). In Pittsburgh's offense -- and with Ben Roethlisberger's recent style of play -- Harris's potential production is supercharged."
Indeed, Harris seems like a great fit for Pittsburgh's "pass-and-protect" style of play. His 2,080 yards after contact since 2018 — fifth-most in college football — indicates he would be able to shed tackles and turn screen passes into big gains. The Steelers also have a glaring hole at running back. They finished last in rushing last year, and James Conner signed with the Cardinals earlier this month.
Najee Harris is the #1 RB in the Draft 🔥 pic.twitter.com/nkcfXz6Hox
— Alabama Diehards (@AlabamaDieHards) April 21, 2021
Still, it would be unusual for the Steelers to take a running back in the first round — provided they stay on the board. Since 2011, only 14 running backs have been selected in the first round. As we know, the NFL is a passing league. The Steelers haven't drafted a running back in the first round since Rashard Mendenhall at No. 23 overall in 2008.
He accumulated two 1,000-yard seasons before succumbing to injuries and ineffectiveness.
In terms of value, the Steelers could do better than select a running back at No. 24. But if Harris fits as well as analytics say, maybe he's worth bucking trends.
