“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in”
Okay, maybe not fully back in but at least the Phillies went out this weekend and showed that they had a backbone after the embarrassment that was the series vs. the Orioles.
Let’s get into it.
What Aaron Nola has done in his last 3 starts has been down-right ridiculous against three good offenses. In his last three starts, against the Mets, Braves and Yankees, Nola has allowed a total of 2 runs, 8 hits and he’s struck out 30 hitters in 21 innings.
Why?
His fastball location is back. The main reason Aaron Nola is back to being Aaron freakin’ Nola is he’s finally got the location on his fastball that was lacking in 2019 back to where it was when he finished third in the NL Cy Young voting. Nola’s curve and change are both good pitches but for them to be lethal, like we’ve seen in his last three starts, he needs his fastball to be well located or they’re just meh pitches that he has to throw a lot of to get through an outing.
His change-up has also developed into a really nice pitch. His ability to now get that pitch to run on the same plane as his two-seam fastball is just devastating to hitters.
It’s been a frustrating calendar year for Hoskins and it really seems to feel like the city has turned on him. But there’s some signs of life from Hoskins at the dish. Do I love my supposed power-hitting first baseman hitting in the two-hole, looking for walks and not hitting the ball out of the ballpark? No, but what I’ve seen from Hoskins in the last week is a focus on going the other way and not flying open and hooking balls down the third baseline. We saw that come to fruition when he laced the game-breaking double on Saturday night.
It’s been frustrating but in his last six games, Hoskins is hitting .333, with a .481 OBP, and a .958 OPS. Also, Hoskins has clearly improved defensively. He’s no longer a butcher over there and the amount of plays his made over at first this year is shocking.
Speaking of defense…
I did NOT expect Jean Segura to look this good at second base, but here we are. He’s looked like a different player back at his natural position and it really seems like him and Didi have a good connection going on. Obviously, you want Scott Kingery there long-term but with the way Kingery is swinging the bat right now, he’s lucky to even see the field. With Roman Quinn possibly being sidelined here we could see more of Jean Segura and Didi up the middle.
Speaking of Jean Segura…
Segura is riding a 7 game hitting streak and is getting back to thinking doubles in the gap and not home runs, meanwhile McCutchen is just looking healthier and healthier every time he takes the field. It all culminated with the home run, but McCutchen is finally back to letting it loose.
Howard is a super raw pitcher. We’ve all seen the flashes from Howard so far, but what he lacks is consistency and if you aren’t consistent in the big leagues-- teams are going to expose you.
What Howard is learning right now is that raw stuff alone isn’t enough to dominate the Major League level.
Here are three things Howard needs to do if he wants to get on the right track.
Fastball command - He’s too inconsistent with his fastball and it sets him up for bad counts. He needs to think corners of the plate and not up and down. He’s been missing up a ton with all of his pitches, which allows hitters to tee off.
Change-up consistency - Howard’s change-up is better than what we’ve seen in the big leagues. If Howard’s not going to be consistent with his fastball location he’s going to need his change-up so guys aren’t just gearing up for his fastball. We saw that a lot in the Mets start. Guys were just sitting on the fastball because he couldn’t threaten them enough with his other offspeed pitches.
Ditch the curve/throw the slider - The curveball is just not a good pitch at the major league level yet. It’s a get-me-over pitch that he’s trying to make a strikeout pitch. His slider is nasty. He throws it hard and it bites. He doesn’t have great control with it yet, but the slider is going to need to be his out pitch going forward. I don’t think hope is lost for Howard’s curveball, he just needs to tighten it up and throw it harder.
I’m not sure we’ll ever see gaudy power numbers from Bohm, but what we should see is a .280 to .300 hitter that has 25 homer potential. Either way, the dudes flat-out hits. He consistently barrels up the baseball, has a really good eye at the dish and is aggressive within the zone. There wasn’t one at bat over the weekend where I thought Bohm looked over-powered. He just looks like he “fits” and for a rookie to already have that look is impressive.
I started to notice this last week, but the Phillies really don’t strikeout much as a team, and if you’re looking for something that might be an indicator for future success this might be it. The Phillies have the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball and that is beautiful to see. To me, not striking out means your team is putting the barrel on the baseball and is hunting the right pitches within the strike-zone. Phillies hitters are actually being aggressive and not letting pitchers make their pitches late in counts. Who would have thought that! But seriously, the Phillies having a low strikeout rate is something some of the best offenses in the sport traditionally have so it seems like the Phillies are heading in the right direction in that sense.