Bryce Harper is a steal for Phillies at $326 million

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Photo credit Russell Lansford-USA TODAY Sports

Any minute now, the Phillies could agree to a contract that would pay Bryce Harper more money in one deal than any athlete in the history of professional sports has ever made. 

The large number — which could be as high as $326 million if Harper does indeed break the MLB record — has caused some to wonder if the Phillies are making a mistake. If Harper might not be worth the huge money the Phillies are about to commit to him. 

Those people would be dead wrong. 

In fact, there is a strong chance that Harper will end up being underpaid during the next few years in an Phillies uniform. A look at Harper’s career WAR (win above replacement), and a recent study on the value one player can bring to a franchise, shows why. 
A study by researcher Matt Swartz, highlighted in The Shift by Russell A. Carlton, explained that in baseball, the price of a win is worth $10 million. Simply put, that means if a player ends a season with a WAR of 1.0, they have in theory been worth $10 million to that club that season. If their WAR was 10.0, they were worth $100 million to that team that year (see: Trout, Mike). 

So in theory, if the Phillies are going pay Harper an average of $32.6 million a year — which would be an MLB record $326 million over 10 years — he would need to have an average WAR of 3.26 over his time with the Phillies. 

The good news is that Harper could remain the same player he is right now and he would easily accomplish that. 

In his career, Harper has an average WAR per season of 3.9. That means, over the first seven season of his career, Harper has been worth — on average — roughly $39 million per season. He hasn’t come anywhere close to that, obviously, with a career earnings of $47.4 million — an average of just $6.7 million per season, making him one of the biggest steals in baseball over the last seven seasons. 

Last season was the only year in Harper’s career he didn’t quite earn his salary. In 2018 Harper was paid $21 million salary, and his WAR was just 1.3 — which according to the study would mean he “earned” a salary of $13 million. 

Harper, however, is just 26-years old. To put that in perspective, Rhys Hoskin is 25-years old. Scott Kingery is 24. Aaron Nola is 25. All of those player are at the very, very beginning of their career. Harper is already a top-10 player in the league and has an MVP on his resume — and there is a strong chance his best days are still ahead of him. 

Add in the box-office appeal Harper will bring to the franchise, and Harper isn’t just worth the $326 million the Phillies are about to commit to him, he will likely end up being a steal at that price.  

Which is why as the negotiations come to their final days, perhaps even final hours, the Phillies should do whatever they can to make sure they get Harper to sign on the dotted line — and feel confident they got a great deal in the process. 

You can follow Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!