The Phillies have been well-represented in Cooperstown as of late. Pedro Martinez, inducted in 2016, snuck in a 5-1 year in Philly before retirement. Jim Thome, the beloved power-hitting lefty inducted in 2018, had two 40-home run seasons in red and white. And the late Roy Halladay, who in his brief Philadelphia career compiled a 55-29 record, won a Cy Young Award, and tossed both a perfect game and postseason no-hitter, received his well-deserved enshrinement this past weekend.
While these guys made an impact for the Phils, their primary teams were the Red Sox, the Indians, and the Blue Jays, respectively. A player hasn’t been inducted due mainly to his contributions with the Phillies since Mike Schmidt and Richie Ashburn, both members of the 1995 Hall of Fame class (one could argue that Jim Bunning, class of ‘96, was more impactful as a Phillie than as a Tiger and the cap on his plaque supports this, but he put up great numbers in Detroit).
This begs the question: who will be the next Phillie in the Hall? Will it be someone who is remembered most at the Vet or CBP? Or will it be someone whose Philadelphia career is barely a part of their legacy? Players like Dale Murphy, who is no longer eligible on the current ballot, or Cole Hamels, who is a Hall of Fame contender but is still active, will not be considered for this list.
Few players have had as dominant a stretch as the Big Piece. After winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2005, Howard took his game to a level that seemed to promise a career alongside those of the all-time greats. His 58 home runs in 2006 ranks 11th all-time in a single season (fourth if you remove likely steroid users Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa) and he became the first Phillie to win the MVP since Schmidt. The next three seasons produced similar results, and over that four-year span he averaged 50 home runs, 143 RBI, and a .278 average. Only five players have hit more home runs in a four-year span than Howard, and the same three aforementioned steroid users are a part of that last. The other two are Babe Ruth and Ken Griffey Jr. He had the third most home runs ever for a player in their first six seasons. Just seven years into his career, he was halfway to the 500 HR mark that practically guarantees HoF induction.
Unfortunately, his career took a steep dive after the devastating achilles injury that transformed Howard into one of Philly’s most beloved icons into the player everyone wanted so badly to be rid of. As much as strings of utter dominance help, the cumulative stats and the growing Sabermetrics revolution work against his cause. Howard ended his career with a respectable 382 HR, good for 68th all-time and tied with HoFer Jim Rice. But he also ended his career with a very unspectacular 15.0 WAR, which ranks outside the top thousand players in MLB history. Even if you eliminate the defensive component of WAR, he ranks 778th, tied with Dean Palmer and Richie Sexson. The same stats that helped to get guys like Mike Mussina into the Hall, along with injuries, will likely keep Howard out.
Eight seasons of 100 runs, eight seasons of 100 RBI, nine seasons of 20+ HR, 13 seasons of 20+ steals, and 12 straight seasons of a .280 average or higher. If that’s not consistency, I don’t know what is. But will it be enough?
Unfortunately, Abreu was overshadowed by the other big names of the steroid era, and he didn’t do quite enough to set himself apart from the other very good players of the 90s and 2000s. Sure, he put up big offensive numbers and ranked highly in important stats throughout his career. Since 1980, he is in the top-20 in career OBP and has compiled an impressive WAR of 60.0, which is 123nd among all position players and right next to names like Yogi Berra and Vladmir Guerrero.
But he’s also right around names like Bernie Williams, Jim Edmonds, and Reggie Smith. All guys with 300-400 HR, 2000-2500 hits, a .280-.300 career average, and similar WAR. Also all guys who lasted a year or two on the ballot and never garnered more than a 10% yes vote. Abreu’s day may come later, but not right now.
Rolen isn’t as flashy a choice for the Hall as some of the other players that have appeared/will appear on the ballot alongside him, but his WAR (70.2) ranks sixth among eligible candidates and is only 2.2 less than shoo-in Derek Jeter. He’s just a little… boring?
With just over 2,000 hits, 300 home runs, and a .280 average, Rolen appears solid if unspectacular. However, that’s a pretty exclusive club in its own right, with only 60-some members. When you consider Rolen’s defensive prowess within that same club, the list gets a lot smaller. There are only six players with the above offensive stats with a career defensive WAR greater than 10.0. There are only three, including Rolen, when you up that figure to 20.0.
This type of all-around player warrants serious consideration, especially in the Sabermetrics revolution we have today. Though he received just 17.2% of positive votes in his second year of eligibility, the seven-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove winner has time to gain popularity on the ballot. It wouldn’t come as a surprise, however, if he was voted in later through the Veteran’s Committee à la Ron Santo, who was comparable to Rolen offensively, but much worse defensively.
J-Roll’s situation is almost the opposite of Rolen’s. Rollins ranks 234th in WAR, but his basic statistics will work in his favor over the more advanced figures. Simply put, he’s one of the most unique players in MLB history, and it would be hard to keep him out based on his devastating power-speed combination at perhaps the least offensive-minded position on the diamond.
Comparing him to recent HoF inductees Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin reveals just how special a player he was. He had the most hits, home runs, and stolen bases of the three, and while he struck out the most and hit for the lowest average, his style of play was defined by his leadoff pop and his ability on the base paths. Rollins is one of only seven players in MLB history with 200 HR and 450 SB, a list which includes Barry Bonds, Joe Morgan, and Rickey Henderson among other HoFers. No other shortstops appear on the list. If you reduce the HR total to 150, there are still no other shortstops. Changing the SB total from 450 to 350 finally adds some shortstops to the list: Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin.
With an MVP and a World Series ring under his belt, Rollins had the longevity, versatility, and uniqueness that Ryan Howard lacked, and he should get the nod at some point during his eligibility.
Like Howard, Utley’s career did not hit its full potential because of knee and ankle issues that affected him throughout the latter half. But the beginning of Utley’s career was nearly unprecedented for second basemen. Like Howard, he surged in the late 2000s, contributing to the Phillies’ emergence as juggernauts and starting in four straight All Star games. The other second basemen to accomplish this feat are all HoFers, including Jackie Robinson, Joe Morgan, and Craig Biggio.
From 2005-2009, he was one of four players with 140 HR, 800 hits, and a .300 average. The others were Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Miguel Cabrera. The second baseman was not only making his case as the best at his position at the time, but also beginning perhaps the most impressive offensive career ever at the position. Even with a number of years cut short by injury, he is one of only four second basemen with 250 HR and a .275 average. Two of the others, Robinson Cano and Jeff Kent, are marred by steroid allegations, and the other is HoFer Ryne Sandberg. Utley excelled defensively, too, ranking 20th in dWAR (18.3) among all players with an oWAR greater than 50.0.
If there’s one thing that can really take Utley’s case over the top, however, it’s his postseason excellence. His five home runs in a single World Series (2009) are tied with Reggie Jackson and George Springer for the most all-time, and his seven total World Series home runs is tops among second basemen. Cooperstown loves to enshrine players like this (Bill Mazeroski, for example) and second base is a position that doesn’t see a talent like Utley all too often.
He’s one of 17 members in the esteemed 3,000 strikeout club. He’s got three World Series rings and took home the Series MVP award in 2001. His postseason dominance manifested itself in an 11-2 record in 19 appearances, with his ERA sitting at just 2.23. He’s one of 26 pitchers with a career WAR of 80 or higher, and every other pitcher (excluding Clemens) has a plaque in Cooperstown. And of next year’s eligible candidates, his WAR is third-highest over players like Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez.
So why is Schilling not in the Hall yet? One possibility is that he never won the Cy Young Award, but as a three-time runner up, this shouldn’t be an issue. Perhaps his win total doesn’t do it for the writers, but while he trailed pitchers like Tom Glavine, he had more Ks and a better ERA, WHIP, and FIP than his Braves counterpart. And if Mussina’s case relied heavily on analytical figures like Adjusted ERA+, Schilling should have no trouble. He’s tied with HoFers Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver at 50th overall in that statistic, and is the only non-HoF pitcher (excluding Roger Clemens) in the top-25 for adjusted pitching wins, which analyzes the pitcher’s contribution to his team’s success ignoring all other factors.
If the Hall of Fame’s mission is to enshrine the greatest players based on their performance on the field, there is no reason that Schilling should be excluded any longer.