There is no denying the James Harden experience has not been as exciting as expected.
There have not been the games fans were used to seeing from Harden where he explodes for 40-or-50 points. There have not been many games where he has been red hot from three, drilling his signature step back again-and-again. He has not looked like the explosive, dominant scorer that it seemed the team was getting.
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Instead, if we are being honest, he has looked horrifyingly old at times. He doesn’t seem to have the quick first step he used to. He is shooting 33% from three, and it seems worse than that when you watch him play. Instead of being a dynamic scorer he has looked to pass far too often, and ironically, he final stat line has frequently ended up looking a lot like the last point guard the Sixers tried to pair with Joel Embiid.
Add everything up and it is understandable why there would be some concern about Harden heading into the playoffs. Those concerns might end up being valid, and if they are, the Sixers run in the playoffs won’t be much longer than the last few postseason trips they have had.
But while the concerns are understandable, it is not yet time to officially write Harden off and hit the panic button. He has not been the disaster that he is starting to be portrayed as. In reality, the Sixers have been excellent with Harden, and the expectations that this team can make a deep run into the playoffs should still be viewed as very much realistic.
Let’s start with a simple, indisputable fact — the Sixers have been really, really good with Harden on the floor.
The five-man lineup of Harden, Joel Embiid, Tyreese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle have scored more than any other five-man lineup in the NBA since the trade happened. That five-man lineup has a net rating of 20.2, which trails only a Boston Celtics lineup that features Robert Williams, who is likely done for the season. Take away the Celtics lineup that can no longer exist and the Sixers net rating of 20.2 for their five-man lineup is considerably higher than the next closest lineup in the NBA (Timberwolves lineup that has a 12.8 rating). That is way better than they were last season, and before the trade, when the team’s five-man starting lineup had a net rating of 14.
Simply put when the Sixers starters are in and Harden is running the show they are arguably the best starting five in the NBA. They are better than they were last year and way better than they were before the trade. That can’t be overlooked, and Harden’s contributions to that shouldn’t be dismissed, even if he has contributed in unexpected ways besides scoring.
While his lack of aggression has been frustrating, that also might just be the reality of playing with an MVP candidate that is competing for the scoring title. Embiid is currently second in the NBA in scoring, averaging 30.2 points per game, right there with LeBron James (30.3) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.1). No other player on the Bucks averages more than 20.1 points. No player on the Lakers is averaging more than 23.2. In fact, no team has two players averaging over 25 points. The idea and hope that Harden could average his usual 30-points was probably unrealistic with a player as ball dominant as Embiid next to him.
Still, as a scorer, there have been stretches where Harden has shown he can be the player the Sixers need come playoff time.
He dropped 32 points against the Milwaukee Bucks while hitting 40% from deep. He had 29 in a win over the Los Angeles Clippers. He hit a big basket late, and made some big free throws, in the team’s win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday night. His first three games with the Sixers, when he averaged 26 points and shot 41% from three, might feel like forever ago but they did happen and they do matter when debating if he can be an impact scorer.
Those stretches are a very positive sign for the playoffs. Come playoff time the Sixers are going to need Harden to be more aggressive as a scorer. It is what they lacked in a big way last postseason. Harden has shown, for the most part, since coming to the Sixers that late in close games he is capable of becoming more aggressive and attacking the basket.
Last season Harden was in a similar situation with Brooklyn, playing the role of distributor during the regular season. Although he wasn’t needed as a scorer the way he will be with the Sixers, his scoring numbers did go up (in a small sample size) in the first round of the playoffs before he injured his hamstring:
Brooklyn:
Regular season: 24.6 points, 10.9 assist, 8.5 rebounds, 36% from 3
Playoffs: 27.8 points, 10.6 assists, 7.2 rebounds, 47.5% from 3
As for the perception that Harden’s play declines dramatically in the playoffs, here are his averages in the playoffs during his time in Houston compared to the regular season.
Career (in Houston):
Regular season: 29.6 points, 7.7 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 36% from 3
Playoffs: 28.4 points, 7.0 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 32% from 3
The bottom line is that, even with his flaws, Harden is still going to be a massive upgrade from Ben Simmons in the playoffs — and really that might be all that matters.
Harden will contribute more as a scorer, he will have a better chance of making big buckets late and he will not shoot 33% from the free throw line the way Simmons did. For all of the worry about the bench and Doc Rivers, the reality is that if the Sixers get even average guard play last year, they are almost certainly in the Eastern Conference Finals, and with really good guard play, they might even have beaten a Milwaukee team that ended up missing Giannis Antetokounmpo for a good portion of the conference finals.
The Sixers top three of Embiid, Harden and Maxey are considerably better than their top three last season of Embiid, Simmons and Tobias Harris. Harden is the main reason why. They now have two actual guards for Embiid to count on as opposed to last season when they two forwards pretending to be threats from the perimeter. That is reason enough to feel great about the team’s chances in the playoffs.
Harden is not the player he was in Houston, when he lead the league in scoring three straight seasons. He isn’t good enough to carry a team like he used to. The good news is he doesn’t really have to be. That mostly falls on Embiid. The Sixers are going to need Harden to be a bit more aggressive and score more in the playoffs, taking some of the load off of Embiid at times. They don’t need Harden to average 30 points. They need him to score more than the 22 he is currently averaging and shoot better than 33.9% from deep.
If he can get that scoring average up and make a slightly higher percentage from three the Sixers will be an extremely tough out in the playoffs. There has been evidence since he was traded to the Sixers that he will be able to do it. Whether he will is the biggest question facing the team as they head into the postseason.
If he can’t? The offseason will be spent debating what to do with Harden and the massive extension he is eligible for.
Until he fails in the playoffs, however, don’t overreact to a disappointing showing in the regular season — and don’t ignore all of the evidence that points to Harden, Embiid and the Sixers going on a special playoff run.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com