The Eagles have a hole on their roster and the most productive player in college football at the position of need could be staring them in the face with the No. 12 pick in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Yet, it would be a mistake to select him. Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith was a wonderful college player at Alabama, but he would be the wrong pick for the Eagles on Thursday night.
Here’s why I believe the Eagles would be wise to pass on the Heisman Trophy winning wide receiver and look elsewhere for a difference-making player.
He’s too small, and let’s stop pretending this doesn’t matter
It matters. Smith weighed in at 166 pounds. Before getting to historical NFL trends when it comes to players like this, let me throw this out there: I am not a big person. If anyone suggested anyone *close* to my height and weight could play at a high level in the NFL, laughter would ensue. Smith is about my height. He doesn’t weigh that much more than me. It’s a very simple rule to evaluate NFL Draft prospects. Trust me on this one.
Or trust NFL teams and the history of the draft. There’s never been a wide receiver under 175 pounds drafted in the top 15 picks of a draft. Ever. The reason is clear: That’s way too much risk to incur on a selection that high. Some may argue Smith’s route-running ability and hands make him less risky. I say his weight makes him way more risky to be far less than a star at the next level.
Do you know how many wide receivers under 170 pounds have recorded a 1000-yard season in the last three decades? The answer is zero, so stop trying to look it up. The NFL is about rare, game-changing traits. Sure, smaller receivers (Tyreek Hill, DeSean Jackson) have worked out well. But both possess rare speed. Smith doesn’t. He’s far closer to a 4.45 or 4.50 type of runner than a 4.30 blazer. With physical corners nearing (or topping) 200 pounds in the NFL, asking Smith to play the outside, get off press coverage and take the top of the defense is a fool’s errand. He won’t be that guy with his size and speed profile.
Let Nick Siranni work with the young wide receivers already on the roster
While many correlated last week’s excited wide receiver talk from Sirianni into a tell on a possible Smith pick, I was thinking about Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Travis Fulgham, John Hightower and Greg Ward. You can even add in J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, if you so dare. Whether you count five or six, the Eagles have a wide receiver room full of young pass catchers, ranging from 22-to-25 years old.
There’s a recent first (Reagor) and second-round pick (Arcega-Whiteside) in the group. There’s a guy that looked like a star (Fulgham) last October. There’s a guy (Watkins) that seemed to show life when Jalen Hurts took over last December. Siranni’s background (as you can easily tell) is with wide receivers. The Eagles have spent a ton of resources trying to remake the wide receiver room over the last few drafts and cycles of player development.
Why not give the new coach a chance to unlock what’s there before spending another premium resource at the position?
The impact of first-round wide receivers is overrated
We do this every year, and every year the same trap gets us.
Young wide receivers (especially on talent-barren teams that need help everywhere) don’t jump into the NFL and lead to victories. Last year, six wide receivers (Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk) were selected in the first round. The combined records for the six teams (Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, 49ers) after making those picks: 31-48-1. Not a single one of those six teams posted a winning record.
Last season, eight NFL players caught at least 100 passes. Do you know how many were selected within the top 12 of the NFL Draft? None. Here are the rounds the NFL’s best pass catchers were taken: Fifth, first (27th overall), second, sixth, third, second, third and third.
Let skinny Smith be taken by another team, and nab a Day 2 wide receiver like Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman or LSU’s Terrace Marshall.
Don’t be the Matt Millen Lions
Think about teams that win. And then think about how they draft, and how often they take wide receivers in the first round in back-to-back years. Let me know how many examples are found. Pass catchers can be found throughout drafts. The position is becoming much like running back. There’s so many good ones coming out of college that investing a premium resource on one is foolish unless we’re talking about a physical specimen. The Eagles have used cap room and high picks on wide receivers for years. How about fixing the other roster holes now?
Better options will be present at No. 12, including a trade back
Smith might be the most well-known player on the board at No. 12, but he surely won’t be the one with the best chance at long-term NFL success or what the bedrock of winning will be built on.
South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn or Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater make more sense at No. 12. Or, if a team is desperate enough to overpay for Smith, the Eagles could trade down a few spots, nab extra picks, and take a pass rusher like Michigan’s Kwity Paye.
Smith was a heck of a college player. He would be the kind of pick to rally a fan base together on draft night. Jerseys would be sold. It could be looked at as redemption for the Jefferson miss last year. But it would be a mistake by Howie Roseman.
Pass on the frail guy and take a player built for the NFL and that profiles as someone to help build a new foundation around.