It’s that time of year.
As we approach summer, the NFL season is only months away. For the Eagles, a new coaching staff has arrived and the page has been turned on the last era. That includes a changing of the guard at quarterback. Out went Carson Wentz, leaving the door open for Jalen Hurts to take the job and run with in into the future.
Here’s where I think Hurts (and Wentz) rank right now. This isn’t a historical ranking. It’s not based on the next five years (so age doesn’t matter that much). It’s just based on who I believe are the top NFL quarterbacks heading into the coming season based on recent track record, supporting cast and where each player is on his career trajectory.
1. Patrick Mahomes: So great that we’ve begun to take him for granted. Nearly willed his team to another ring despite a toe injury and banged up offensive line. Since becoming the starter in 2018, Mahomes has thrown for 118 touchdowns, over 13,000 yards and been to three straight AFC Championship Games.
2. Aaron Rodgers: We just watched the best revenge tour (against his own team) in NFL history. There’s still great football in one of the ten best to ever play.
3. Tom Brady: I doubted Brady in Tampa Bay. I was wrong. He’s still going, and it’s a fool’s errand to rank him any lower.
4. Russell Wilson: Seattle’s season didn’t end well, but Wilson (68.8%, 105.1 passer rating) had one of his best years. The Seahawks have never won less than nine games in a season since drafting Wilson in 2012. What an incredible run.
5. Deshaun Watson: There’s alot going on here, including disturbing legal issues and reported Eagles interest. But if eligible to play this season, we’re talking about a player coming off a season with a completion percentage over 70 and 8.9 yards per attempt, something only Joe Montana has done in the history of the sport.
6. Josh Allen: He took the leap, and is now clearly one of the NFL’s best. Now we get to find out if he can do it consistently. When he became an MVP candidate last year, it was hard not to think that Allen became the player Wentz was supposed to be. It shows what hard work and listening to good coaching can do.
7. Lamar Jackson: Too many focus on what he can’t do and too few focus on what he does do. The Ravens are 30-7 since making him the starter in 2018. We’re watching the best running quarterback ever.
8. Dak Prescott: Anyone still questioning Prescott’s status as a top 10 quarterback isn’t paying attention to the league. The only question for 2021: Will he be himself the whole year after a gruesome injury?
9. Ryan Tannehill: Since taking over as the Titans starter in 2019, Tannehill is 18-8 with a 110.6 passer rating and 8.6 yards per attempt. Few have been more efficient. Few have won more games. Now we’ll see if he can keep it up without Arthur Smith calling the plays.
10. Kyler Murray: Is this a projection? Sure. But Murray looked like a real MVP candidate through mid-November before a shoulder injury changed Arizona’s season. If the Cardinals can keep him upright, there’s a 4000-yard passing, 1,000-yard rushing season waiting to happen.
11. Kirk Cousins: Annually underrated. Cousins is carving out a Tony Romo-esque career in which perception (not that good) doesn’t meet reality (consistent, efficient and quite good). Here’s a list of the quarterbacks with the six highest career passer ratings in NFL history, with at least one name that will likely shock you: Mahomes, Watson, Rodgers, Wilson, Drew Brees and Cousins.
12. Justin Herbert: What a debut. Herbert opened eyes last year, and looks like he’s poised to be the NFL’s next great quarterback.
13. Matthew Stafford: The talent has always been there. We can finally learn if he’s a winner in Los Angeles.
14. Matt Ryan: The longtime Falcons star slipped in 2020, but don’t be shocked if there’s a Philip Rivers-ish late-30s resurgence with a new offensive coaching staff and direction in Atlanta.
15. Baker Mayfield: Matured and took a big step forward last year. Anything less than a deep playoff run will be a disappointment in 2021.
16. Derek Carr: The definition of mediocre in today’s NFL. Never has been as good as his biggest supporters believe, but more competent than his detractors (like me) suggest.
17. Jimmy Garoppolo: When healthy, he’s better than No. 17. Unable to stay on the field, which spurred the 49ers to find their future in Trey Lance. Jimmy G. is a starter in the NFL in 2022. Where is anyone’s guess.
18. Joe Burrow: Would be higher if not for the injury that ended his season. Cincinnati is saying he’ll be ready by Week 1. My advice after watching Wentz rush back in 2018: Don’t rush it!
19. Jared Goff: The perception is that Goff stinks and is one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks. The reality: He’s overpaid and not close to elite, but owns a 42-20 record, 7.7 yards per attempt and has been to a Super Bowl over the last three seasons.
20. Jalen Hurts: I’m a Hurts guy, and think he’ll prove his doubters wrong in a huge way. Pointing to a low completion percentage in limited action (behind a porous offensive line and with throwaways part of trying to keep his team on schedule) is akin to making sweeping generalizations about a hitter in baseball with about 100 at-bats. The eye test showed Hurts throw with touch and timing, with the caveat that he has to work on his accuracy. I'll bet on Hurts to improve. No rookie quarterback since 2009 had more yards per completion than Hurts’ 13.8. Plus, he averaged over 60 yards per game on the ground. There’s a Lamar Jackson feel to his game and profile, including being a winner and leader. Get excited for this kid, Philadelphia.
21. Ben Roethlisberger: The end is near, and could arrive with a thud this season. A Hall of Famer on his last legs.
22. Trevor Lawrence: As hyped of a prospect as we’ve seen since Andrew Luck. He’ll be good, but not what was expected. There’s enough offensive talent around him to hit the ground running and play well as a rookie.
23. Ryan Fitzpatrick: Good for a few “wow!” throws and wins per season. Then the rest is average or below average.
24. Carson Wentz: What a fall. From an MVP candidate in 2017 to one of the worst quarterbacks in the sport last year. Wentz (and his adoring fans) hope Frank Reich and Indianapolis is the cure to what ailed him in recent years. But inaccuracy, poor footwork, ugly pocket awareness and diminishing athleticism follow quarterbacks. Should be more competent with a loaded team, but that’s not saying much. Wentz’s trajectory says he won't be a starting quarterback in the NFL within two years. All eyes will be on the Cols to see if he can change that.
25. Andy Dalton: The countdown to Justin Fields starting in Chicago has already begun.
26. Cam Newton: Mac Jones will take this job by Halloween.
27. Daniel Jones: Make-or-break year for Jones. My guess is he’ll break.
28. Zach Wilson: Wilson’s arm is legit and he reminds me of a more athletic Mayfield coming out of the draft. But succeeding against the best defensive coached division in pro football as a rookie will be a tough task.
29. Sam Darnold: New team, but don’t expect drastically different results. Darnold is a poor decision maker.
30. Tua Tagovailoa: The eye test doesn’t lie. The second-year quarterback will hold back the Dolphins.
31. Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill: How high will the Saints trade up in the 2022 draft to take a real quarterback?
32. Drew Lock/Teddy Bridewater: Denver better hope it has a top five defense.