Speaking to reports last week Howie Roseman said at least one thing that in a press conference meant to mislead should be taken as a complete truth:
“Nobody has any idea what we're going to do,” Roseman said. “I know that.”
Roseman is right — this draft is one of the most unpredictable in years. There could be a run on quarterbacks at the top. There could be a run on defensive talent at the top. Both would really impact what the Eagles will do at No. 10. If there is a run on quarterbacks, they will have a chance to trade up for one of the special defensive talents in the draft (Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson). If there is a run on those special defensive players, they will have a chance to potentially trade back from No. 10 with a team looking to add a quarterback.
The uncertainty surrounding what they will do, however, will not stop me from making a prediction.
Here is why I think Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the player most likely to be on the Eagles when the first-round is over on Thursday night:
Organizational values
Throughout the pre-draft process one thing that has been discussed at length is what the Eagles believe in as an organization and how that doesn’t match up with drafting a running back. I’m not so sure that is true.
In all my years covering Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman I can say confidently they believe in three things more than anything else: the quarterback, the lines and the offense. It has been a smart, winning formula for them.
How does that apply to the No. 10 pick?
Well, they aren’t taking a quarterback. So cross of No. 1 on Lurie and Roseman’s priority list.
Offensive or defensive line are certainly a possibility on Thursday night. If Will Anderson or Jalen Carter fall past No. 5, a trade up could happen. If Paris Johnson makes it to No. 10, something that is by no means a guarantee, he is a possibility. As the draft gets closer, however, those both feel unlikely, so cross those three players off the board for now. A very possible option is Georgia EDGE rusher Nolan Smith. If the pick isn’t Robinson, it could very well be Smith.
But while he isn’t a quarterback or linemen, I do think what people are missing is that Bijan Robinson checks an almost equally important box — he plays offense.
Robinson doesn’t just play offense, he is the best offensive player in the draft. Lurie spoke at length last month about how important offense is at this year’s NFL Annual Meetings. He is correct — to win in the NFL you have to have an elite offense. Elite offenses beat elite defenses, something Lure just saw in the Super Bowl, when his offense was outplayed by Kansas City in the second half and couldn’t run the ball throughout the game.
At it’s simplest form the argument for Robinson is a clear, easy one: He helps the Eagles get one step closer to their organizational goal of an unstoppable, elite offense that can win a shootout in the Super Bowl.
Misconception they don’t invest in RB
It has been said time-and-time again this offseason that Roseman don’t value the running back position. I’m not sure that is completely true, especially in the draft.
Their starting running back the last few seasons, Miles Sanders, was a 2nd round pick. In 2017 they tried to trade up to draft Dalvin Cook at the top of the 2nd round. There is also a strong chance they would have taken Christian McCaffrey instead of Derek Barnett at No. 14 in that year’s draft had he fallen to them.
No, none of those picks are as high as No. 10. That is a different level of pick. But the reality is this — for all of the people who say you can find running backs everywhere, the Eagles certainly don’t seem to believe that when it comes to the NFL Draft. Maybe in free agency, where they don’t commit major money. But in the draft the Eagles have shown a willingness to commit high-level picks to the running back position, and frankly, haven’t had great luck finding true No. 1 running backs later on in the draft.
Best Player Available AND fits a need:
One thing you hear often when it is #NFLDraftSzn is that you always take the best player available. That isn’t always the case, as teams almost always obviously pick for need as well. The good news for the Eagles is that Robinson checks both boxes.
In his recent MMQB article, Albert Breer wrote that he believes after talking to general managers around the league that there are eight players who are viewed as special, elite prospects outside of quarterback:
“Georgia DT Jalen Carter, Alabama OLB Will Anderson Jr., Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson), two corners (Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon, Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez), two offensive linemen (Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski), and Texas tailback Bijan Robinson in that crew”
Carter, Anderson and Wilson are possibilities for a trade up, but I doubt they can get high enough to get any of them. Johnson is a possibility, but I don’t think Skoronski fits what the Eagles look for in an offensive linemen. I don’t believe they will be taking a cornerback after re-signing both Bradberry and Slay this offseason, which to me is an indication of how they view the top corners in the draft.
That leaves one player left — Robinson.
While going through a list of issues with the other seven players (Carter’s off-field issues, Skoronski’s physical traits, etc.), Breer finished up by writing this:
“Robinson? Well, he’s probably the cleanest prospect in the class, but he’s a running back”
Good news — the Eagles need a running back. In fact, Breer lists it at their top need, which is a noteworthy decision by him.
The Eagles can be excited about his potential but I simply refuse to believe the Eagles actually trust in Rashaad Penny, who has never been able to stay healthy, as their No. 1 running back option. His injury past makes him essentially a lottery ticket and the very small amount of guaranteed money they gave him shows you how they really feel. Fans can feel good about him, but at the end of the day, the Eagles can’t (and won’t) trust their running game — a crucial part of their offense — to a lottery ticket.
Last year the Eagles had a very clear No. 1 running back. Miles Sanders touched the ball 279 times. He was over 300 touches if you include the playoffs, and their games been closer before the Super Bowl, he might have been over 350 touches.
Kenny Gainwell was No. 2 at running back with 76 total touches.
The large discrepancy wasn’t just a one-year thing. In 2021 Sanders touched the ball 163 times, which was way more than any other running back, despite missing five games. Nick Sirianni doesn’t seem to like the running back by committee. He seems to like having a clear No. 1.
His clear No. 1 from last season is now gone. Robinson slides into this offense perfectly, completely set up to be an elite player right away, but also ready to take those 300+ touches that Sanders had. He doesn’t take away touches from any of the other offensive weapons. He takes touches that need to be filled.
Robinson not only gives the Eagles the (likely) best player on the board at No. 10, and one of the truly best players in the draft, but he fills one of their biggest needs still on the roster — an elite No. 1 running back they need.
Passing game impact
In a recent piece on ESPN, Robinson detailed his official visit — one of only two he took — with the Eagles:
It’s late March, one month until the 2023 NFL draft, and Bijan Robinson is in South Philadelphia, tucked into an office in the Eagles' practice facility with one of his potential future bosses: Howie Roseman, the team's general manager…
Pitch me, (Roseman) says. Why do I need to take you at No. 10?
The question is expected; Robinson's rejoinder is not.
"You're not going to get a running back," says the most lauded running back prospect in years. "You're going to get a difference-maker."
Robinson is right. Like McCaffrey coming out in 2017, Robinson is more than a running back — he is an offensive weapon, one who can make an impact in the passing game, something the Eagles haven’t had in their No. 1 running back since LeSean McCoy. They Eagles haven’t thrown the ball to their running back consistently — on screens, blitz options, etc — not because they don’t won’t to. They haven’t been able to. Robinson changes that in a major way, and thus makes a major impact on the passing game.
In his most recent column, Peter King wrote Robinson “has the rare ability to segue into receiver mode with great hands and strong slot capabilities.” That certainly sounds a lot like McCaffrey, who the Eagles not only wanted in 2017, but reportedly made a trade offer for for last season as well.
If Robinson didn’t have elite hands or an ability to make plays in the passing game, he wouldn’t be an option for the Eagles. But he does have those qualities and that makes him, as Robinson told Roseman, more of a different-maker than a running back — and makes him the most likely pick for the Eagles on Thursday night.
You can follow Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!