Many fantasy football owners were left with a difficult decision to make thanks to the seemingly inordinate number of injuries to elite players this season. They had to decide whether to sell low on these elite talents for lesser players that would help them to win right away, or to hold steady and hope they would still be in the playoff hunt when their star players returned. Now, at the halfway point of the season, many of those big names are returning, and some people still have a shot at winning it all, while others are ready for the season to be over.
Michael Thomas is back but did you rack up enough wins to stay relevant that he’ll actually be helpful? Or did you trade him away and are stuck with good but not great players who have kept you afloat but maybe you lack the elite talent to win a fantasy football championship? There’s always the chance you traded Thomas or another elite player away and it paid off in a big way and your team is loaded. No one will truly know if they made the right decision until their season ends, and, if you’re lucky, it won’t end till Week 16 (or whenever your fantasy season ends).
The same goes for those that traded away players in order to get an injured star. Nick Chubb could return this week but will it ultimately make a difference if you gave up too much to have him ride the pine?
Ultimately fantasy football comes down to weighing the risk and reward of any decision, be it trade, waivers, or who you start and sit each week, and a huge amount of luck. It would be nice if luck wasn’t such a huge factor but that’s what we get for playing fake football. So look at all your options, make the call, and then sit back, relax, and hope you didn’t mess up.
Start
QB: Josh Allen (@ ARI) – When Allen has a good game it’s a really good game. Despite struggling recently, Allen capitalized on one of the best matchups for quarterbacks with four total touchdowns against Seattle. Allen might not be matchup proof but he still has huge upside and has good chance to show that in a high scoring affair against Arizona this week. The Cardinals defense has been okay, but definitely nothing special. They’ve allowed two or more passing touchdowns in five of eight games and haven’t shut a single quarterback out of the end zone this season. An even better sign for Allen is that the Cardinals have allowed good rushing outings to some mobile quarterbacks. In Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater had 32 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown, and Russell Wilson ran for 84 yards when he faced Arizona in Week 7. Allen’s rushing ability has always kept his fantasy floor high, so this bodes well for his Week 10 prospects. While Allen isn’t the weekly must-start he was the first quarter of the season, this is a week you don’t want to risk Allen going off on your bench. Get him into your lineup.
Also consider: Jared Goff (vs SEA) – You should know by now to start quarterbacks against Seattle, and Goff has enough weapons to have a good fantasy outing in another high scoring game against the Seahawks. Tua Tagovailoa (vs LAC) – Tua is officially on the fantasy radar after a stellar outing last week. The Chargers defense has been up and down this season so Tua could put up points as he duels his fellow rookie Herbert.
RB: Kareem Hunt (vs HOU) – Some people might be worried about Hunt with looming return of Nick Chubb, but there is reason for them to optimistic about Hunt going forward. Hunt averaged almost the same number of yards from scrimmage per game in the four games Chubb played, as he has averaged in the four games without Chubb. Given that Hunt saw fewer touches in the four games with Chubb; he was actually more efficient in a timeshare than as the lead back. Having Chubb back in the lineup will hurt Hunt’s ceiling somewhat, but he should still be a high-end running back for the remainder of the season, especially this week. Opposing teams have scored at least one rushing touchdown in seven of eight games against Houston this season. The Texans have also allowed over 100 yards rushing in six of eight games this season, so Hunt can rack up yardage for you, even if he doesn’t find the end zone. No matter if Chubb returns this week or not, Hunt belongs in your lineup.
Also consider: Phillip Lindsay (@ LV) – Despite sharing the backfield with Melvin Gordon, Lindsay has outshined his counterpart as he continues to do more with less when both running backs are active. In a great matchup against the Raiders, the more explosive Denver running back has upside. Chase Edmonds (vs BUF) – The Bills have allowed a rushing touchdown in eight of nine games so far. Edmonds upside is capped a bit if Kenyan Drake plays, but he’s already shown he can produce in a timeshare. If Drake is out Edmonds becomes a must start.
WR: Jerry Jeudy (@ LV) – It took a little while but Jeudy is finally showing why he was so highly touted coming out of college. His crisp route running, big play potential, and chemistry with quarterback Drew Lock have this rookie trending upwards. After turning ten targets into four catches and 73 yards in Week 8 Jeudy decided that wasn’t enough and turned his 14 targets in Week 9 into seven catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown. The volume of targets is astounding but so is his production. Lock might not be the prolific quarterback but he’s been getting the job done of late and if he continues improve, Jeudy’s recent production could become the new normal. A good matchup is always helpful to young quarterbacks and wide receivers and that’s what Denver has when the face Las Vegas this week. The Raiders secondary has allowed some big games, including two games where wide receivers caught multiple touchdown passes and four in which they allowed wide receivers to rack up over 200 receiving yards. They aren’t the worst secondary in the league but it’s a matchup Jeudy has a good chance to exploit so you should feel comfortable starting him.
Also consider: Brandin Cooks (@ CLE) – Will Fuller gets most of the praise but Cooks has quietly been almost as productive with touchdowns in three of the past four games and now he faces a leaky Browns secondary. Don’t forget about Cooks because both Texans receivers can be productive. Jarvis Landry (vs HOU) – Without Odell Beckham Jr. you can expect Landry to continue to be a target hog and the most trustworthy Cleveland receiver, especially against an abysmal Texans secondary.
TE: Eric Ebron (vs CIN) – It seems like Ebron is flying under the radar a bit but he has been one of the most consistent tight ends this season and is even coming off back to back games with a touchdown. After receiving just two targets in Week 1, Ebron has seen at least five targets in six of the following seven games. He’s caught at least four passes in four of those seven games, and has 50 or more receiving yards in five of seven. That’s a fairly high and stable floor for a tight end this season, and a matchup against the Bengals should raise his ceiling. In Cincinnati’s eight games, tight ends have caught six or more passes in five of them, and have at least 58 yards in six of those games. The Bengals have only allowed touchdowns in three games but they allowed a total of six touchdowns in those three games, and all of those games came in the last four weeks. The prospects of all Pittsburgh pass catchers are in question right now with Ben Roethlisberger on the Reserve/COVID-19 list as a high-risk close contact, but with enough negative tests he could be activated in time to play Sunday. Even without Roethlisberger you could do a lot worse at tight end than Ebron, but if Big Ben is playing Ebron could have a big week.
Also consider: Irv Smith Jr. (@ CHI) – He’s touchdown or bust but against the Bears Smith has as good a chance to score as any tight end. Austin Hooper (vs HOU) – After having an emergency appendectomy, it looks like Hooper will be back in action this week, keep an eye on his game status but Hooper could have a great game against a Texans defense that has struggled against tight ends and a potentially expanded role due to the loss of Odell Beckham Jr.
Sit
QB: Ryan Tannehill (vs IND) – It wasn’t too long ago that Tannehill appeared to be entering weekly QB1 territory, that was fun while it lasted. Having A.J. Brown and Corey Davis should give Tannehill a higher ceiling but so far that hasn’t truly materialized. After having 3-plus touchdowns in four of his first five games, Tannehill has just two touchdowns in three straight games. That’s still fairly good production but his highest yardage total during those three weeks was just 233 yards. However, no matter how well or poorly Tannehill plays, the Titans offense continues to revolve around Derrick Henry and that isn’t changing in the near future. Of course, hurting both Henry’s (we’ll get to him later) and Tannehill’s cases is the matchup with the Colts this week. This season just three quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against the Colts and just last week they shut down Lamar Jackson. In fact, Jackson became the third quarterback this season to not throw for a single touchdown against Indianapolis. With low passing volume most weeks, Tannehill needs to find the end zone multiple times to supply you with a worthwhile fantasy outing. The chances of that happening this week seem pretty slim.
Be wary about: Teddy Bridgewater (vs TB) – Despite a great outing by Drew Brees, Tampa Bay is still a difficult matchup for quarterbacks and they held Bridgewater to zero touchdowns while intercepting him twice in Week 2. Lamar Jackson (@ NE) – The Patriots defense isn’t as dominant as it used to be but it still isn’t friendly to quarterbacks, especially ones who are struggling like Jackson. He always has big upside but Jackson is risky.
RB: D’Andre Swift (vs WAS) – Sorry in advance for the upcoming awful pun. We’re halfway through the season and the Lions still haven’t given Swift the lion’s share of the backfield touches. Really, really sorry about that one, but it had to be done. In all seriousness, as long as Swift is splitting snaps with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, his upside is capped. The rookie has just two games with double digit carries and just one game with more than 65 rushing yards. There was hope that Swift would make his mark in the passing game but he has four or fewer catches in all but one game, which was back in Week 2 when he caught five passes for 60 yards. Outside of that 60 yard receiving performance, Swift’s game high for receiving yards is just 33. Despite those stats, Swift is usually the only Detroit running back you can trust, but you should avoid them all this week against Washington. Teams have been held to 90 or fewer rushing yards in five of eight games against Washington so far this season, and in the three games they allowed more than 90 yards, the opposing team had to run the ball more than 27 times. That doesn’t seem like something the Lions will be doing on Sunday. To make matters worse for Swift, no running back has exceeded 30 receiving yards against Washington this season. Until Swift gets more consistent volume he’s more of a matchup play, and Washington’s defense is a bad matchup.
Be wary about: Derrick Henry (vs IND) – Another week, another difficult matchup for Henry, who you’re starting unless you have incredible depth, just don’t expect too much from him against a fierce Colts defense. Damien Harris (vs BAL) – The rookie continues to be incredibly efficient on the ground, but Cam Newton continues to vulture the goal-line rushing touchdowns. Harris is a very risky start against a dominant Ravens front. He is also dealing with a chest injury so keep an eye on that during the week.
WR: Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson (@ CHI) – With a running back like Dalvin Cook the Vikings would be fools to not rely heavily on him, but that’s coming at the expense of their two great wide receivers. In the two games since Cook returned from injury, neither Thielen nor Jefferson saw more than five targets in either game. They’ve totaled 11 catches, 155 yards, and no touchdowns in those two games. That’s right; those are the combined totals of both Thielen and Jefferson in two games. It wasn’t two long ago we were guessing which of them would total that in one game. Hurting their case for more production is that the Vikings have thrown the ball just 34 times in those two games combined. When a team is winning with the run game they just aren’t going to pass as often. It could be more of the same this week against Chicago. The Bears are pretty good at defending the run, but their even better against the pass. They’ve only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers all season and only three times in nine games have opposing wide receivers totaled more than 150 yards receiving. It’s understandable if you’re in a position where you have to play Thielen or Jefferson, but avoid them if at all possible.
Be wary about: DeAndre Hopkins (vs BUF) – The first of two big names to be wary about this week. Hopkins will likely be shadowed by the great Tre’Davious White, so reign in your expectations for Hopkins. DK Metcalf (@ LAR) – You also shouldn’t get too excited about playing Metcalf this week as he’ll see a lot of Jalen Ramsey in coverage and the Rams have been very good against perimeter wide receivers.
TE: Mark Andrews (@ NE) – This is getting really repetitive but Andrews fall from grace, or at least the top tier of fantasy tight ends, is astounding. He is a talented pass catcher, but Nick Boyle out-snapped Andrews, 50-38, last week and Baltimore remains a run-first offense, in part due to Lamar Jackson’s struggles as a passer. Andrews has just three or fewer catches in six of eight games this season and he hasn’t consistently done much with those catches. He does have three games of over 50 yards receiving, but has a high of just 32 yards in the other five games. The cherry on top of this is that Andrews hasn’t scored since Week 5. None of this is likely to change this week as the Patriots have only allowed one tight end touchdown all season. New England has dealt with some of the best tight ends in the league, including, arguably the top three. Darren Waller had just two catches for nine yards, Travis Kelce had 70 yards but only three catches, and George Kittle had five catches for 55 yards. Before the season Andrews was expected to be a top-5 tight end, but if those three can’t produce against New England’s defense, you can’t expect much from Andrews. Until he has a great matchup, or becomes a consistent contributor in the passing game, you can’t start Andrews.
Be wary about: Jared Cook (vs SF) – Both Josh Hill and Adam Trautman saw the field more than Cook last week. If you start Cook you’re banking on a touchdown and the 49ers have only given up two to tight ends all season. Hunter Henry (@ MIA) – Volume hasn’t been a major issue but Henry hasn’t been able to truly get on the same page with Justin Herbert and probably won’t this week against a Dolphins defense among the best against tight ends.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz