For better or worse, the NFL season continues. Despite numerous positive tests for COVID-19, the NFL managed to play a full slate of games, which was finally completed on Wednesday. The delayed schedule and positive tests also had a huge impact on fantasy football, making Week 12 one of the trickiest weeks of the season.
Lamar Jackson was one of many top players that fantasy football owners had to find a replacement for due to a positive test. Other fantasy football owners were left with a tough decision. Do they leave their Steelers and Ravens in their lineup and hope that the game is played? Or did they not take the risk and bench Diontae Johnson and others in favor of lesser options whose game status wasn’t up in the air?
There really was no right answer, although hindsight is always 20/20, it all came down to where your team was in the playoff hunt and how much risk you could stomach. Chances are this won’t be the last week of the season where the status of a game is in question so, if you still have a chance to win your league’s championship, it’s important to suitable backup plans in place.
Everyone likely already has one or two decent running back and wide receiver options on their bench, but don’t neglect a safety net at tight end and quarterback as well. Fielding backups at those positions is often seen as a luxury, if you aren’t streaming the position that is, but now it might be something that saves your season.
Hopefully your league already discussed having a plan in place in case a game is cancelled due to COVID but if you haven’t, you should. While it seems the NFL will just march on no matter what, it can’t hurt to have fill-ins available in case a game is cancelled at the last minute. Those bench options will also come in handy if a game is postponed till Tuesday or Wednesday and there are questions as to whether or not it will be played. If you have a viable backup plan you won’t need to worry about suddenly being stuck without a starter at a key position. It would feel weird to bench Patrick Mahomes, especially if his game gets played later in the week and he’s on your bench, but it’ll feel worse if his game gets cancelled and you get zero points from your starting quarterback.
We each have a different tolerance for risk which will figure in strongly to how we handle the remainder of our fantasy seasons, but there are simple ways to minimize that risk. They could make the difference between your season ending this week or winning it all.
Start
QB: Taysom Hill (@ ATL) – The Saints success with Hill as the starting quarterback hasn’t come due to his prowess as a passer. No his running ability has helped carry the team to back to back wins. He has four rushing touchdowns and 93 rushing yards in his two games as the starter. That scoring rate might not be sustainable but, then again, if the Saints continue to utilize Hill as a runner in the redzone, maybe it can. All of this isn’t to say that Hill can’t get the job done throwing the ball. Two weeks ago, against the Falcons, in his first start at quarterback, Hill completed a stellar 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards. He may not have thrown a touchdown but he didn’t throw an interception either. Guess who Hill faces this week? That’s right, the Falcons, again. The New Orleans-Atlanta matchup in Week 11 was the first time all season that the Falcons didn’t allow at least one passing touchdown. It was also just the second time all season that a quarterback failed to throw for over 300 yards against the Falcons. With another week of experience under center, Hill could very well exceed his previous totals against Atlanta. If you’re streaming quarterbacks, get Hill in your lineup for this rematch.
Also consider: Kirk Cousins (vs JAX) –There’s always a chance of a low volume passing day with Cousins, but Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen give Cousins serious upside, especially in such a great matchup. Derek Carr (@ NYJ) – It’s tough to trust Carr after putting up a dud against a terrible Falcons defense, but the Jets aren’t much better and Carr has been solid for most of the season. If Josh Jacobs is out this coming week the Raiders may throw more, making Carr a safer play.
RB: David Montgomery (vs DET) – For most of the season Montgomery has been underwhelming, but he got the job done for fantasy purposes. In his return from a concussion, and the bye week, Montgomery blew us all away. On just 11 carries he tallied 103 yards and he caught five passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Don’t expect that level of efficiency and production going forward, since we’ve never seen it consistently from Montgomery, but it’s fair to have some optimism with the Lions on tap in Week 13. Detroit has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to running backs five times this season, and only four teams have failed to run one in for a score against the Lions, so Montgomery is a pretty good bet to find pay dirt. The Lions and Bears faced off way back in Week 1 when Montgomery dashed for 64 yards. Detroit’s defense hasn’t improved since then, so maybe Montgomery can improve on that performance. One thing Montgomery definitely has going for him now, that wasn’t really a part of his game at the start of the season, is his involvement in the passing game. Week 1 was the only time this season he didn’t catch at least two passes, and he has caught at least three passes seven times. That sort of involvement as a receiver gives Montgomery a more stable floor than he had last season. You should feel good about starting Montgomery this week.
Also consider: Nyheim Hines (@ HOU) – A reliable and productive pass catcher for quarterback Philip Rivers, Hines role in the Colts offense seems solidified no matter what else happens in the backfield. Hines makes for a solid flex play in PPR leagues, but a much riskier play in non-PPR. Frank Gore (vs LV) – This might seem crazy but Gore has actually carried the ball 33 times and averaged 4.1 yards per carry the last two weeks and finally scored in Week 11. The Raiders just allowed the weak Falcons run game to go for over 100 yards and a touchdown, so Gore is a reasonable desperation play in non-PPR leagues.
WR: Justin Jefferson (vs JAX) – Last week Jefferson showed that he can carry the Vikings offense when Adam Thielen is out and Dalvin Cook can’t get it going. Luckily, he won’t have to this week, as Thielen is back and the Jaguars can’t stop Cook. That doesn’t change the fact that, even when sharing targets, Jefferson is a force to be reckoned with. Jefferson has had over 60 receiving yards each of the last four weeks and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Without Thielen last week, Kirk Cousins didn’t hesitate to look Jefferson’s way in the redzone, a good sign moving forward. Jacksonville’s defense has been brutal the last four weeks. They’ve allowed over 200 receiving yards per game and eight total receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over the last four games. The Jaguars are also dealing with significant injuries at cornerback, so they would have a tough time containing Jefferson on his own, let alone both him and Thielen. Jefferson has been a big play threat all season long but will even more dangerous if he sees increased usage in the redzone. Don’t even think about sitting Jefferson this week.
Also consider: Corey Davis (vs CLE) – Everyone knows about A.J. Brown but Davis is quietly in the midst of a breakout season. The Titans don’t always throw the ball a lot but Davis should still be able to capitalize on a vulnerable Browns secondary that could be without top cornerback Denzel Ward. Michael Pittman Jr. (@ HOU) – Bradley Roby was the only member of the Texans’ secondary that was playing well and he is suspended for the remainder of the season. The Colts’ air attack has been difficult to trust this season but, in a plus matchup, Pittman is the guy to trust for Indy.
TE: T.J. Hockenson (@ CHI) – No matter who else is on the field for the Lions, Hockenson continues to perform as one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. He’s had over 50 receiving yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season and has at least four catches in all but two. In a fantasy season where weekly viable tight ends are a rarity, Hockenson has asserted himself as an elite option. For many positions, facing Chicago would be a reason to downgrade a player, not so for Hockenson and tight ends. Just like Hockenson, the Bears have allowed tight ends to gain over 50 receiving yards or a touchdown in all but one game. They have actually allowed tight ends to both gain 50 receiving yards and score a touchdown five times this season, including four times in the Bears’ last five games. Hockenson was actually the first to accomplish that feat, back in Week 1. The sophomore caught five passes for 56 yards and scored. Dominant tight ends are a scarce resource this season, so Hockenson remains a must start.
Also consider: Austin Hooper (@ TEN) – While Hooper has struggled since returning from his appendectomy the Titans could be the cure. Tennessee is among the worst at defending tight ends, having allowed seven touchdowns to the position, among the most in the league. Mike Gesicki (vs CIN) – Over the past four games Gesicki is averaging 40 receiving yards per game, and has seen five targets in each of the last three games. That’s more stable than a lot of tight ends this season and the Bengals defense is less than stellar. Gesicki has a good chance for a solid outing.
Sit
QB: Kyler Murray (vs LAR) – Two things could hold Murray back this week: the matchup, and how his injured shoulder is feeling. Murray injured his throwing shoulder during his Week 11 game and didn’t look quite the same for the remainder of that game or his Week 12 matchup against the Patriots. Maybe it’s not connected to his injured shoulder at all, but Murray failed to complete a single pass of over 20 yards against New England. That doesn’t seem like something that would happen with a fully healthy Murray. Week 12 was also the first time all season that Murray failed to throw for a touchdown. Murray’s rushing ability didn’t bail him out last week either. For just the third time this season, and first time in back to back games, Murray didn’t run for a touchdown, and he tied his second lowest rushing yardage total on the season. The Patriots defense is no joke, but this week Murray faces the Rams, no one laughs at their defense. The Rams have allowed just eleven passing touchdowns this season, the fewest in the league. Especially if Murray isn’t at 100%, this seems like a matchup he might not be able to overcome.
Be wary about: Matt Ryan (vs NO) – In Week 11 the Saints defense picked off Ryan twice and didn’t allow him to score a touchdown. New Orleans has only allowed one touchdown over their last three games against teams with starting quarterbacks (sorry, Denver), best to stay away from Ryan this week. Matthew Stafford (@ CHI) – Over his last seven games, Stafford has thrown one or zero touchdowns five times. He has struggled greatly at times with Kenny Golladay (and recently D’Andre Swift) out of the lineup, and should struggle against top-tier Bears defense this week.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (@ BAL) – Whether it’s due to the quarterback problems, the banged up offensive line, or his own issues, Elliott just hasn’t been the same this season. Frankly, he’s been mostly awful starting in Week 6; the Cowboys first game without Dak Prescott, although he finally had his first 100 yard rushing game this season two weeks ago. However, that was the first time since Week 5 that Elliott ran for more than 63 yards, and it came against a lackluster Vikings defense. Elliott is averaging a career worst 3.9 yards per carry and he hasn’t scored on the ground since Week 5. Earlier in the season Elliott made up for his rushing struggles with heavy usage in the passing game, but that hasn’t been the case in weeks. Elliott hasn’t caught more than two passes in a game since Week 6. Elliott seems unlikely to get back on track this week as the Ravens are one of the better defenses in the league. So far, Baltimore has only allowed two running backs to go over 40 yards receiving, and only one has scored through the air against the Ravens. Baltimore did allow over 100 yards on the ground in both Weeks 10 and 11, but they had only twice allowed teams to hit the century mark running the ball in all the prior games. The Ravens have also only allowed running backs to rush for four touchdowns so far this season. Elliott only has five rushing touchdowns all season. It’s incredibly difficult to bench a back that was likely a top five pick in your draft, but don’t start him just for that reason. If you have a better option, start them, and let Elliott ride the pine.
Be wary about: Kenyan Drake (vs LAR) – Drake has been an inconsistent runner most of the season and this won’t be one of his better weeks. The Rams haven’t allowed over 60 rushing yards since Week 6, it would be a surprise to see Drake exceed that total. Detroit Lions RBs (@ CHI) – Even if D’Andre Swift returns this week Detroit’s run game will struggle as they travel to Chicago and face one of the stouter defenses in the league.
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (vs LAR) – Kyler Murray’s ailing throwing shoulder and the matchup with the Rams are also good reasons to be worried about Hopkins this week. The two games in which Murray has dealt with his shoulder injury ended up being two of Hopkins worst games of the season. Hopkins managed five catches for just 51 yards in against Seattle in Week 11, when Murray initially injured his shoulder. Then he churned out a similar 55 yards on five catches against the Patriots last week. A report that definitively says Murray’s shoulder is fully healthy would help Hopkins case, but facing off against Los Angeles and Jalen Ramsey is problematic for any wide receiver. The Rams have allowed wide receivers to catch just six touchdowns, the second fewest in the league this season, and the fewest receiving yards to wide-outs this season. Unless you somehow have multiple other top five or ten options at wide receiver, you’re starting Hopkins. His upside is just too good to bench, even in such a challenging matchup. However, the wide receiver’s production is directly impacted by the quarterback’s play, so temper expectations this week.
Be wary about: Amari Cooper (@ BAL) – While Andy Dalton appears to have stabilized the Cowboys offense somewhat, the Ravens secondary has been one of the best units in the league all season long. They’ve allowed the fewest receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season.. It might be better to get Cooper out of your lineup well before this difficult Tuesday night matchup. Brandin Cooks (vs IND) – With the suspension of Will Fuller for the remainder of the season, Cooks will likely see an increase in targets from DeShaun Watson. He’ll also see increase in attention from defenses, which is especially bad when facing one of the best defenses in the league. Cooks will get plenty of opportunities but could have a rough outing against the Colts.
TE: Evan Engram (@ SEA) – A disappointing season for Engram shows no signs of improving this week, thanks to Seattle’s defense and a potential quarterback change. Tight end is actually the one position the Seahawks defend well. Despite good showings from the Eagles tight ends last week, the Seahawks have still held tight ends to less than 60 receiving yards in eight of their eleven games. The three times that mark was exceeded were also three of the just four times they have allowed tight ends to catch four or more passes. If Daniel Jones isn’t healthy enough to play this week, Colt McCoy would likely be a downgrade under center, giving Seattle’s defense an easier time. A change at quarterback would also seem to hurt Engram’s chances of finding any sort of consistency this season. Engram has just one receiving touchdown on the season, and has yet to have consecutive games with over 50 receiving yards. Between the opponent and the questions at quarterback, Engram has nothing going for him this week.
Be wary about: Hunter Henry (vs NE) – Henry has been one of the better tight ends this season but the Patriots defend tight ends well. No tight end has found the endzone against the Patriots since Week 3. Logan Thomas (@ PIT) – Only twice have the Steelers allowed over 45 receiving yards in a game to tight ends, and they haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 2. Thomas has seen consistent targets this season but Pittsburgh’s defense is just too good.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz