One mistake could be the end of your season. It’s that simple. It’s playoff time, so don’t mess up.
It’s simple to just stay with what got you here and not tinker much with your lineup, but maybe that isn’t the best approach. Sure if your best players have been playing well and don’t have an awful matchup you’re starting them. What about elite players who have been struggling for weeks now or are faced with the most difficult matchup for their position, what then?
Don’t get too cute and start some random player over the top option just because you saw this previously unheard of guy mentioned once in an article or press conference. Stick with the known commodities, but look at all your viable options. If an average or above-average player who you consider a spot starter has a fantastic matchup this week, maybe this is one of those weeks to get them in your lineup over the struggling star.
This isn’t the time to be stubborn but you also have to be careful not to overthink these decisions. There is so much information at your disposal, including this fantastic weekly column, so take advantage of that. Consider all relevant information for all players before making your final decisions. Sure, this has been the case all season long because you’re trying to win every week, but now the stakes have never been higher. Survive and advance, it’s playoff time.
Start
QB: Justin Herbert (vs ATL) – The rookie was bound to falter eventually but Herbert is too good to not take advantage of the Falcons defense. Facing a Bill Belichick coached defense is tough defense is tough for any quarterback, and having Anthony Lynn as your head coach will likely make matters worse, so it’s likely Week 13 was an anomaly for Herbert. Last week was the first time he had failed to throw a touchdown pass and just the second time he had thrown multiple interceptions. Meanwhile, Atlanta just allowed Taysom Hill to complete his first two touchdown passes of his career. The Falcons have played better since their bye week, and has been defending the run well for a while now, but they still have one of the worst defensive units in the league. Anyone can freely throw all over Atlanta, so Herbert should have a field day. With Austin Ekeler back in tow, and the usually potent trifecta of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry, Herbert is surrounded by high-end talent. Don’t let last week both you, start Herbert.
Also consider: Ryan Tannehill (@ JAX) – Tannehill has been playing well lately and Jacksonville has never shut a quarterback out of the endzone, including allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games. However, Tannehill upside is capped with the ever looming chance of a Derrick Henry game leading to a low volume day for Tannehill. Tom Brady (vs MIN) – Before the bye, Brady had thrown two interceptions in back to back games and seven in his last four, but Brady and his Bucs should be fresh off the bye and ready for the playoff push. Here’s hoping Brady and Bruce Arians spent this past week working through their differences.
RB: James Robinson (vs TEN) – Maybe the 1-11 Jaguars were hoping that having undrafted rookie James Robinson as their starting running back would help with their tanking, but instead he’s done his best all season to help them win. How dare he! Robinson has been practically matchup proof this season. He’s averaging 106.5 total yards per game, that’s sixth best in the league. On top of that, Robinson has found pay-dirt nine times so far. Doesn’t Robinson know that by playing so well he’s hurting his own chances of working with Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields next season? The audacity of some of these rookies, they need to learn that some NFL teams don’t care about winning. The Jaguars better hope Robinson decides to take his foot of the pedal this week, because he has a great chance for another big game. Tennessee has been okay limiting team’s yardage on the ground but has allowed ten rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. However, they are vulnerable to the dual-threat Robinson, as the Titans have allowed almost 40 receiving yards per game to running backs, tenth worst in the league, and have allowed running backs to catch five touchdowns, tied for second most this season. Jacksonville might be unhappy that Robinson gives them a chance to win this week, but you should thrilled to have Robinson on your fantasy playoff team.
Also consider: Jonathan Taylor (@ LV) – There’s always a chance Frank Reich gets weird and suddenly takes touches away from Taylor, but it really seems like Taylor has put it all together just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Plus, the Raiders just let a couple of Jets backups plow through them for 178 yards. David Montgomery (vs HOU) – Don’t overthink this, Montgomery has averaged 127 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 18.5 carries over the last two games. Even if his efficiency drops off, that volume is outstanding and he has a matchup with the sieve-like Texans defense this week.
WR: Corey Davis (@ JAX) – The Corey Davis breakout continued in a big way last week and shows no signs of stopping. Last week, Davis scored for the first time since Week 8, but the Jaguars have allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, so he may not have to wait as long before returning to the endzone this time. A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry get most of the attention, both from fans and defenses, which may be helping Davis have such a great season. However, even if Davis wasn’t surrounded by so much talent, the Jaguars secondary is so banged up that they’d still have trouble stopping him. Wide receivers have racked up over 200 receiving yards in four of the last five games against Jacksonville. You shouldn’t worry about only one of Davis and Brown having a good game. There have been five games this season that two different wide receivers scored touchdowns against Jacksonville, and in three of those games both of wide receivers also had over 65 receiving yards. The only risk with Davis is that any week could turn into a Derrick Henry game, and therefore a lower amount of pass attempts by the Titans. In such a great matchup all the positives outweigh this one drawback.
Also consider: Jamison Crowder (@ SEA) – Just as with any member of the Jets, starting Crowder comes with a significant amount of risk, but if you need him, Crowder could pay off this week. He’s played much better with Sam Darnold than Joe Flacco, seems to be healthy, and should face little resistance from Seattle’s league worst secondary. Tyler Lockett (vs NYJ) – Across the sidelines is Lockett, who is talented but has played second fiddle to D.K. Metcalf this season. Lockett has certainly been frustrating for fantasy owners but has seen nine targets in three of the last four games. Despite the volatility, you probably can’t risk sitting him against the Jets defense.
TE: Eric Ebron (vs BUF) – The return of Matt Milano makes the Bills more of a challenge for tight ends but not one you have to avoid, if you have the right tight end. Ebron has been the right tight end more often than not this season. He caught seven passes on 11 targets in each of the last two games and has at least four catches in seven games so far. The Bills have allowed over 90 receiving yards to tight ends four times, and have allowed the second most yards per game to the position. Ebron has just four touchdowns on the season, but the Bills have allowed seven to tight ends, tied for third most, including one just last week to Jordan Reed. It’s impressive that Ebron has been able to put up such consistently good numbers amidst the plethora of offensive weapons at Ben Roethlisberger’s disposal, and he should continue to do so this week. Ebron is a rare tight end you can actually trust.
Also consider: Hunter Henry (vs ATL) – Don’t let the dud against the Patriots both you too much, Henry is still a top tight end option. In the prior four games Henry was averaging 4.75 catches on 7.5 targets for 44.5 yards, and he scored twice in that span. The Falcons defense is playing better of late but Henry should get back on track this week. Rob Gronkowski (vs MIN) – If Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks misses the game due to his calf injury; Gronk becomes a much better play this week. Even if Kendricks plays, Minnesota has been average against tight ends this season, and Gronk should continue his strong play of late as he’ll be fresh coming off the bye week.
Sit
QB: Cam Newton (@ LAR) – Newton has thrown the ball less than 20 times in three of his last four games. That simply doesn’t make for a reliable fantasy quarterback. Sure he’s involved in the ground game, but he’s basically a touchdown dependent, low-volume, inefficient running back in that department. You wouldn’t feel great about starting him as a running back and even combining his rushing and passing production, he’s just not good enough. Now he faces the Rams who have one of the best defenses in the league across the board. There have been eight games this season where quarterbacks scored just one or zero total touchdowns against Los Angeles. Plus, the Rams are averaging an interception per game. Newton isn’t a prolific passer, and his reliance on rushing touchdowns makes an unreliable fantasy football asset for the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
Be wary about: Josh Allen (vs PIT) – It probably seems odd for Allen to be here, but think about it for a second. Yes, Pittsburgh lost their first game of the season but the defense still played fairly well for most of the game. Allen is having a breakout season but he’s not perfect and the Steelers defense is still dominant and will likely come out with a vengeance this week. But chances are Allen’s your best option. Derek Carr (vs IND) – Carr had a monster game last week but has been unreliable for most of the season, and while the Jets defense is one of the worst in the league, the Colts are one of the best. This season, Indianapolis has allowed the second fewest touchdown passes, is tied for the third most interceptions, and is in the top-10 in sacks. Don’t risk it with Carr.
RB: Damien Harris (@ LAR) – Harris is a good runner, that is clear, but there are a lot of cooks in the Patriots kitchen. Last week, Harris carried the ball 16 times, but there were another 24 carries that went to Cam Newton and Sony Michel, and James White will occasionally tote the rock. On the season Harris has just two touchdowns. The team leader in rushing touchdowns is the quarterback, Newton, and, despite both playing in fewer games than Harris, White and Michel have combined for another three. When New England gets into the redzone or goal-to-go situations, they are more likely to turn to Newton than Harris. The Patriots have a run heavy offense, but when they do pass Harris is barely involved. Harris has seen just five targets on the season, catching four of them. Rex Burkhead, who suffered a season ending injury four weeks ago, is sixth on the team in targets with 33, and fifth on the team in catches with 25. White is third on the team in targets with 46, and second in catches with 37. So it’s not as if Newton doesn’t rely on running backs as pass catchers, he definitely does, New England just doesn’t utilize Harris in that role. This week Harris and the Patriots face a Rams defense that has surrendered a rushing touchdown in five straight games, but it’s unlikely will have much of a chance to extend that streak. The Rams also allow just 78 rushing yards per game. If you’re in a non-PPR league, White is probably best viewed as a desperation play in this matchup. For PPR leagues, stay away from Harris this week.
Be wary about: Austin Ekeler (vs ATL) – Ekeler has RB1 potential every week but the Falcons are actually quite stingy against running backs on the ground. However, they’re about middle of the pack when it comes to stopping running backs through the air so Ekeler will have to be heavily involved in the passing game to have a great outing. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@ MIA) – Assuming Edwards-Helaire has no lasting ill-effects from the stomach flu that kept him on the sidelines this past week; he actually has a decent matchup against a Miami defense that is average at defending running backs. But with the Chiefs sights set on the playoffs, it wouldn’t be stunning to see Andy Reid ease the rookie back into his normal workload. And anyway, his production has been all over the place this season.
WR: Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd (@ LAR) – Seriously, the Rams defense is really good and the Patriots offense is really unreliable. It’s nice to be the leading wide receivers on an NFL team, but it doesn’t mean much when you play in a low-volume passing offense. The Patriots have attempted the second fewest passes in the league this season so even though Meyers and Byrd typically get a good slice of the target pie, it’s a really small pie. And, once again, they’re going up against the Rams defense. One or both of them will have to deal with Jalen Ramsey. Whoever isn’t covered by Jalen Ramsey will still have to contend with Darious Williams and Troy Hill, both of whom have also been good this year. Los Angeles averages just 0.58 touchdowns to wide receivers per game, lowest rate in the league, and just 131.4 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, also lowest amount in the league. Meyers has yet to catch a touchdown pass this season and Byrd has just one. Cam Newton has thrown only five touchdown passes all season, compared to the eleven he’s gotten on the ground. You can’t trust New England wide receivers, especially in this matchup, and especially in the playoffs.
Be wary about: DeVante Parker (vs KC) – Parker has seen plenty of targets lately but with Tua Tagovailoa under center that hasn’t always led to a good catch rate. A game against the Chiefs always has a chance to end up as a shootout, but the Chiefs secondary has been very good this season. Kansas City has allowed the second fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Marvin Jones (vs GB) – Jones has been great as the WR1 for the Lions with Kenny Golloday. Unfortunately for him, that means he’ll duel with Packers shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander this week. The Packers are rolling and Jones is worth fading.
TE: Austin Hooper (vs BAL) – In the four games since Cleveland’s bye week, and Hooper’s return post-appendectomy, Hooper has been targeted just twice in three of the games. His highest yardage total in over those four games is just 33 yards, which came in Week 11 when he was targeted five times. Hooper has just two touchdowns this season. The Browns might be playing well but Hooper’s receiving role isn’t contributing much to that success. Are you bummed enough yet about his fantasy prospects this week? If not, take a look at who will be lined up on the other side of the ball from him, it’s the Ravens. Over the six games since Baltimore’s bye week, they have only twice allowed tight ends more than 50 receiving yards. Hooper has only caught more than three passes three times all season. He caught five passes in every game from Week 4 to Week 6. Weeks 5 and 6 were also the only two times all season that Hooper 50 yards receiving. Hooper has been bad for most of the season but he’s been unplayable recently. Against Baltimore, he’s once again unplayable.
Be wary about: Evan Engram (vs ARI) – Engram’s inconsistent season continued last week and seems unlikely to improve this week against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed just three touchdowns to receiving touchdowns to tight ends and only once have they exceeded 80 receiving yards in a game against the Cardinals. Engrams prospects improve slightly if Daniel Jones can play but he’d remain a risky play. Logan Thomas (@ SF) – It’s been a roller-coaster of a season for NFC East tight ends and Thomas is no exception. He had totaled just 26 yards in the two games prior to his 98 yard showing against Pittsburgh and has seen more than five targets just twice since Week 3. San Francisco has held opposing tight ends to just under 30 receiving yards per game, the best in the league.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz