That was one of the crazier final two minutes of a regular season game, and week. Here’s hoping nothing that occurred cost you a playoff matchup. If it did, well, that’s absolutely brutal, but there’s always next year. If either of the touchdowns, the field goal, or the game-ending safety advanced you to the semi-finals in your league, congrats, you have some pretty incredible luck.
Ultimately luck is the final determination in who wins or loses in fantasy sports. You can do all the research in the world, be as tuned in to all things going on in the NFL, but once the games start, everything is out of your control. There’s no way you could been prepared for Mike Williams to suffer a back injury at the start of the game and not return, just like there’s no way you could’ve expected Baltimore’s defense to give you the extra two points you needed at the last possible second.
So much is out of our control in life these days and what happens in fantasy football in the end is out of our control as well. All you can do is your best, control what you can control, and then let things play out and hope for the best. If you lose in the semi-finals it will suck but remember, just making it this far is a heck of an accomplishment, and it’s more likely you lost because of something you can’t control and not what you did or didn’t do.
So set your lineups, sit back, and enjoy football. Best of luck to everyone.
Start
QB: Philip Rivers (vs HOU) – Let’s start with the fact that the Texans just allowed Mitchell Trubisky to throw for three touchdowns. That alone should tell you to target Houston’s defense and therefore Rivers is a top streaming candidate this week. Of course, Rivers has done plenty recently to warrant consideration. The veteran has at least two touchdowns in four straight games and in six of his last eight. That includes a Week 13 game in Houston when Rivers completed 77% of his passes for 285 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Between Rivers in Week 13 and Trubisky in Week 14, the Texans have allowed at least two touchdown passes in back to back games and only once this season have they kept the endzone skies clear of touchdown passes. The emergence of rookie running back Jonathan Taylor may have taken some pressure off of Rivers and has resulted in opposing defenses having to account for the ground game and not just Rivers and the passing attack. If you’ve made it this far streaming quarterbacks, Rivers could be the guy to get you to your league’s title game.
Also consider: Jared Goff (vs NYJ) – Goff’s production has been very up and down this season and can rely on the run more now that Cam Akers has asserted himself as the starting running back, but when a quarterback faces the Jets, you start them. Ben Roethlisberger (@ CIN) – It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Big Ben and the Steelers. Their first two losses of the season in back to back weeks, and Roethlisberger has thrown a pick in four straight games, but the Bengals seem like a great “get right” game for Pittsburgh and their quarterback. Plus, Pittsburgh’s pass-heavy offense gives Roethlisberger a consistently high ceiling.
RB: Cam Akers (vs NYJ) – Fantasy managers who have held onto Akers this whole time have been greatly rewarded the past three weeks. After taking five carries for 15 yards in Week 11 and catching one pass for four yards and a score, Akers has seen his touches and yards from scrimmage increase each of the last three weeks. This past week he touched the ball a whopping 31 times and had 194 total yards, more than double his 94 total yards from the previous week. Don’t worry that Akers didn’t find the endzone since he did in each of the three prior games. Plus, his 6.3 yards per touch in Week 14 is fantastic, it’s tough to imagine him putting up a dud this week, especially against the Jets. The Jets have actually been only slightly below average against running backs this season, and a bit better of late, but the game script should favor a good workload for the efficient Akers. The Rams can put up points through the air and on the ground and, with their strong defense, should have no trouble getting and holding a sizable lead. That’ll likely lead to Los Angeles keeping the ball on the ground as Akers grinds out the clock to help lead his team to an easy win. Akers will continue to reward your patience this week.
Also consider: Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. (@ DAL) – With a great matchup on tap, if Mostert suits up he’s a must-start and Wilson is a risky, touchdown dependent play. However, if Mostert’s ankle keeps him out, Wilson seems most likely to take over the lead role and becomes a flex play with upside due to his penchant for finding the endzone. Mike Davis (@ GB) – With Christian McCaffrey unlikely to play on Saturday, Davis retains his starting role. Davis’ rushing production hasn’t been spectacular of late but he’s been scoring and has a great matchup against the Packers on tap.
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (@ DAL) – Although he’s missed some time due to injury and COVID-19, when Aiyuk has been on the field he’s been an absolute force, especially recently. He was targeted more than any wide receiver in Week 14 and is tied with Stefon Diggs for the most targets over the past two weeks. Over the past five games Aiyuk has played, he’s averaged 7.2 catches and 99 receiving yards and has caught three touchdown passes. With Deebo Samuel out of the lineup, Aiyuk is likely to continue to produce at a high level, especially this week. The Cowboys are just middle of the pack in yards allowed to receivers per game but have allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this season. They’ve allowed wide receivers to catch two or more touchdown passes in a game eight times this season. Wide receivers jump for joy when they face Dallas and you should jump for joy to have Aiyuk in your lineup.
Also consider: T.Y. Hilton (vs HOU) – Hilton has seen 18 targets in the last two games, has four touchdowns in the last three games, and is averaging 93 receiving yards over those three games. The Texans defense is less than stellar and Hilton shouldn’t have much trouble putting together another good outing. Marquez Valdez-Scantling (vs CAR) – The Panthers’ secondary hasn’t been great of late, they just got torched by the Broncos, and so there could be room for a second Green Bay wide receiver to produce alongside Davante Adams. MVS is always an incredibly risky play but if feel you have a strong enough roster to survive the potential bust, he’s worth playing for the big-play upside that can win you a matchup.
TE: Robert Tonyan (vs CAR) – Tonyan has become a consistent part of the Packers passing game, with five targets in four straight games, and he’s caught all but one. That’s pretty impressive. He also has a touchdown catch in each of those games, which seems unsustainable but you never know, especially with the way Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball lately. Over that four game span Tonyan has averaged a decent 46.5 receiving yards per game. The Panthers have allowed 59 receiving yards per game to tight ends, fifth most in the league. Over their past four games (Weeks 10-14, Carolina had a Week 13 bye) they’ve allowed an even more generous 76.25 yards per game, which is third most over those five weeks. Carolina has done an okay job keeping tight ends from scoring, but even if Tonyan fails to score, this seems like a great opportunity for Tonyan to have one of his best yardage days of the season. Tonyan is a must-start this week.
Also consider: Eric Ebron (@ CIN) – Don’t let Ebron’s two catch showing last week dissuade you; he’ll get back on track against the abysmal Bengals defense. Ebron’s five targets were the fewest he’d seen since Week 8 and he’d seen eleven targets in each of the previous two weeks, and it’s not as if five targets is awful, he’ll be fine. Rob Gronkowski (@ ATL) – The touchdown was nice but the two targets were disappointing. No worries though, Gronk had been averaging six targets per game over his previous eight games. Atlanta’s defense has actually played somewhat better of late but has still allowed the third most touchdowns and 55 yards per game to tight ends.
Sit
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (vs NE) – Yes, Tua was great for fantasy purposes last week, but he also completed less than 60% of his passes. Just two weeks ago we were reminded of what Bill Belichick’s defense is capable of doing to even the best rookie quarterbacks. Likely offensive rookie of the year, Justin Herbert, threw two interceptions and no touchdowns against New England in Week 13. The week prior, the Patriots kept Kyler Murray out of the endzone and picked him off once. So what reason can you come up with that Tagovailoa will perform better against New England? It’s not his offensive weapons since the Miami backfield has been plagued by injuries, and their wide receivers aren’t faring much better. Not his running ability either, the rookie’s season high is just 35 yards, and if Murray couldn’t get going on the ground against the Patriots, Tagovailoa won’t either. The Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives, and so are you, but both Miami, and your fantasy team, might be better off with someone other than Tua for this week.
Be wary about: Deshaun Watson (@ IND) – Despite his talent, Watson and the Texans offense haven’t been able to find much consistency this season. Injuries, and suspensions, to Watson’s top wide receivers certainly haven’t helped, and neither will a matchup with a Colts defense that turned Watson over twice just two weeks ago. Teddy Bridgewater (@ GB) – Bridgewater has been a popular streaming option at times this season, but he should be out of the running this week. The Packers have held opposing quarterbacks to just one touchdown pass in five of their last seven games and Bridgewater already doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (vs SF) – On the bright side, Elliott continues to out-snap Tony Pollard. Just about everything else is the downside. In Week 14, Elliott only touched the ball one more time than Pollard. For most of the season the gap in touches hasn’t been that narrow but it doesn’t bode well, especially given Elliott’s lack of production when he does get the ball. Over the last four games he hasn’t had consecutive games of more than 50 yards rushing and only has one 100 yard rushing game this season. Elliott also hasn’t rushed for a touchdown since Week 5. He did catch a touchdown pass in Week 11. That was just his second receiving touchdown of the season and first since Week 1. Lately, Elliott hasn’t even been supplementing his lackluster rushing totals with production through the air. He has two or fewer catches in six of his last seven games. It’ll be tough sledding again for Elliott this week, as he faces a 49ers defense that has yet to allow a 100 yard rusher in a game this season. Only two running backs have even surpassed 70 yards on the ground against San Francisco. Maybe you don’t have any running back depth left and are stuck with Elliott, but otherwise there isn’t much of case to justify playing him this week.
Be wary about: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (@NO) – After allowing a 100-yard rusher for the first time in forever, the Saints will likely go right back to holding running backs in check. CEH has struggled to get much going on the ground this season so he’ll have to be heavily involved in the passing game to be a worthwhile start in a tough matchup. David Johnson (@ IND) – Before starting Johnson you first have to make sure he’s activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list. Then take a look at who he faces in Week 15. It’s a Colts defense that hasn’t allowed any team that doesn’t have Derrick Henry to rush for more than 67 yards since their Week 7 bye. Last thing for you to do is to put Johnson right back on the bench. He hasn’t been good this season and won’t suddenly turn it on in Indianapolis.
WR: DeVante Parker (vs NE) – Even if Parker is able to play through a hamstring injury this week, a matchup with the Patriots doesn’t bode well for Parker helping your fantasy team. Parker’s rookie quarterback could really struggle in this one which will of course limit Parker’s ceiling. Really you can downgrade or bench Miami’s entire offense this week, but for now let’s focus on Parker. He’s mostly been able to capitalize on good matchups this season, such as his recent 119 yard showing against the Jets or his 110 yards in Week 4 against Seattle, but has struggled against some of the better defenses. The Patriots have allowed just 146.1 receiving yards to wide receivers, fourth fewest in the league (although practically tied for third with the Packers at 145.8 yards allowed per game). The potential for Parker receiving shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore also doesn’t inspire confidence in Parker having a productive outing this week.
Be wary about: Michael Thomas (vs KC) – Just keep your expectations for Thomas in check this week. He’s the WR1 for the Saints and a potentially high scoring game means Thomas will likely produce. The issue is how Thomas and Taysom Hill will fare against a very good Kansas City defense that is allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. Marvin Jones Jr. (@ TEN) – The Titans defense hasn’t been great this season but Malcolm Butler has had some good showings in shadow coverage and Jones is the Lions de facto WR1. If Matthew Stafford plays maybe Jones can provide decent production, but if it’s Chase Daniel under center the thought of starting Jones in the semi-finals is scary.
TE: Dalton Schultz (vs SF) – Schultz hasn’t eclipsed 50 receiving yards since Week 8, and that was one of the just three times this season he’s accomplished that no so lofty feat. His targets have also progressively decreased each week since Week 8, tying a season low of three this past week.. Schultz hasn’t been to the endzone since Week 11 and has only scored three times. So not only has Schultz not produced, but he’s lacking significant opportunity to do so, no the type of player you want to rely on in fantasy league semi-finals. Making matters worse this week, is Schultz having to deal with San Francisco’s defense. The 49ers’ defense has dealt with its share of issues this season but it has mostly shut down tight ends this season. This past week was only the third time a tight end totaled over 35 receiving yards against the 49ers, and only one has gone over 60 receiving yards. San Francisco has allowed just tight ends to catch just three touchdowns. There’s very little upside in playing Schultz.
Be wary about: Logan Thomas (vs SEA) – Thomas’ prospects could be impacted by who ends up starting for Washington on Sunday. Either way, only two tight ends have racked up more than 60 receiving yards against Seattle this season. Jordan Akins (@ IND) – This isn’t about dropped touchdown passes, although that doesn’t help, it’s about Akins lack of production on an offense that was scrambling for pass-catchers last week. Of course there’s an argument to be made for starting Akins after he six targets went his way last week. However, the Colts have been one of the best at defending tight ends this season.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz