If you’re reading this it likely means you’ve made it to the fantasy football championship game. Congrats, that’s awesome! Hope you win and hope this column has helped you get there in some small way. If you’re still reading this because you just enjoy this column, then thank you so much! It really means a lot.
Well, this is it, the championship. Your lineup has to be perfect. No pressure. Take the time to consider every statistic, trend, relevant piece of news, or statistic that you think is important and will help you win. There is no perfect, magic formula to figure out whom to start and sit. Everyone has their own preference of what pieces of information are most important when making these decisions. If you’re in your league’s title game, maybe your way is right. If you didn’t make it this far, well, next year will definitely be your year.
And what a year it has been. Luckily it will be over soon and there are plenty of reasons to believe 2021 will be our year. However, fantasy football will be over soon, and real football not too long after. Basketball and Hockey are coming around just in time to help fill the void. But for at least one more week [fantasy] football reigns supreme.
Here’s hoping that all of this week’s starts and sits are correct and that you set the perfect lineup. Good luck!
Start
QB: Tom Brady (@ DET) – It’s been a bit of an up and down first season for Brady in Tampa Bay but he should be able to get the job done for you in your fantasy championship game. Only once all season has Brady failed to throw for a touchdown, and he’s thrown multiple in each of the last five games. That streak should continue this week as Detroit has allowed the third most passing touchdowns. Brady’s yardage totals have fluctuated throughout the season but no worries this week, the Lions also allow 275 passing yards per game, seventh most. That should provide Brady with a stable yardage floor. The bevy of high-end pass-catching options at Brady’s disposal also gives him plenty of upside. If one connection isn’t working he still has other talented options that will help him get the offense moving. The fact that the Buccaneers still haven’t clinched a playoff spot and still have a chance to win the NFC South should give Brady ample motivation to pull out all the stops. The quarterback with the most Super Bowl wins should help you win a fantasy title.
Also consider: Tua Tagovailoa (@ LV) – The rookie was efficient but not overly productive through the air in a difficult matchup. However, he stayed fantasy relevant with two rushing touchdowns, giving him three in the last two weeks. Rushing production raises Tua’s floor and ceiling in a decent matchup with both the Dolphins and Raiders fighting for their playoff lives. Baker Mayfield (@ NYJ) – A quarterback facing the Jets is always a good option, and the Jets surprising win last week doesn’t change anything. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games and has only thrown one interception over the last seven weeks. The only reason to hesitate in starting Mayfield is the looming specter of a Nick Chubb game in a seemingly easy win.
RB: David Montgomery (@ JAX) – The last four weeks Montgomery has taken full advantage of defenses that struggle to stop the run as he has put together some of the greatest performances of his two year career. All season long the Bears have leaned on Montgomery, and they showed just how much they trust him by handing him the ball 32 times last week in an important divisional matchup with the Vikings. He turned those carries into an impressive 146 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Montgomery is now averaging almost 20 touches per game on the season. Over the last four weeks he’s averaging 142 yards from scrimmage per game and has scored six total touchdowns. The Bears still have a shot at the playoffs, whereas their opponent this week, Jacksonville, now has claim to the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. You can easily guess which team will likely play with more fire this week. The Jaguars have struggled against the run all season anyway, allowing over 100 rushing yards to running backs in nine of their 14 games. Montgomery should take full advantage of this friendly matchup in a must-win game for you and the Bears.
Also consider: Myles Gaskin or Salvon Ahmed (@ LV) – If Gaskin gets activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list, start him, it’s that simple. If he remains out, Ahmed is a very viable flex play, especially in non-PPR leagues. This past week Ahmed become Miami’s first 100 yard rusher since 2018 and now the Dolphins face the struggling Raiders defense. Darrell Henderson Jr. (@ SEA) – Between Henderson and Malcolm Brown, Henderson is the higher upside replacement for Cam Akers. Henderson was the Rams’ lead back for much of the first part of the season and was fairly efficient and explosive. Plus, the Seahawks have allowed plenty of touchdowns to running backs, although not a ton of yards.
WR: Brandon Aiyuk (@ ARI) – Don’t worry about C.J. Beathard being San Francisco’s starting quarterback this week, trust in Aiyuk. Aiyuk’s usage, and production, has been insane over his last six games. In that span the rookie is averaging a whopping 11.5 targets, 7.5 catches, and almost 95 receiving yards per game. Oh, and he has four receiving touchdowns over that time period. Over the last two games alone he was targeted 29 times. Aiyuk is the lone reliable pass-catcher remaining for San Francisco, so he should continue to see heaviest usage, especially with the injury to Raheem Mostert. Even if Beathard doesn’t key in on Aiyuk, there’s no doubt Kyle Shanahan will call plays to get the ball in Aiyuk’s hands. He is the Niners most dynamic playmaker. The Cardinals defense he’ll be facing is actually okay. They had gone three weeks without allowing a wide receiver to catch a touchdown pass before this past game. But they won’t be able to contain Aiyuk and his otherworldly production. This rookie is incredible. If George Kittle is able to return it will certainly hinder Aiyuk’s ceiling, but Aiyuk’s been too good for Shanahan to simply write out of the game plan. Aiyuk is a rare rookie who can carry you to a fantasy championship.
Also consider: Jarvis Landry (@ NYJ) – The biggest beneficiary of Mayfield’s elevated play, Landry is averaging 7.25 catches on 9.5 targets over the last four games. Assuming the Jets defense returns to its meek ways, Landry should continue to produce, although a run-heavy game script could hurt his volume. It’s been a while since we’ve been able to say this, start your Browns. Lynn Bowden Jr. (@ LV) – Over the last three weeks Bowden has been taking advantage of the injuries to Miami’s skill position players. If DeVante Parker and co. don’t play this week Bowden could have a huge day against a lackluster Raiders defense. If his teammates return Bowden could still be a viable boom/bust start.
TE: T.J. Hockenson (vs TB) – Don’t let Hockenson’s poor performance last week stop you from starting him this week. Against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed over 50 receiving yards to tight ends eight times this season, Hockenson should get right back on track. Week 15 was just the fourth time all season that Hockenson failed to see five or more targets and failed to catch four or more passes. Hockenson is top five in both targets and catches among tight ends this season. You really shouldn’t worry about him. His six receiving touchdowns are tied for fourth among tight ends, and he has a good chance to add a seventh this week. With eight touchdowns allowed to tight ends, the Buccaneers are tied for most in the league. The only worry for Hockenson is the status of Matthew Stafford and his offensive line. Stafford was a surprise start this past week and hopefully will be able to play again this week. If he doesn’t, Chase Daniel is a big downgrade under center, but you never know, with Kenny Golloday still out, it’s not like the Lions have many other options for Daniel to target. If Stafford does play he’ll be doing so behind a banged up offensive line. That being said, tight end is so weak this season that you can’t afford to bench Hockenson in the biggest game of your season.
Also consider: Robert Tonyan (vs TEN) – The Titans have allowed tight ends to catch five or more balls in nine of their fourteen games so far this season. Tonyan has scored in five straight games and has five catches in three of his last five games. This could be a shootout and Tonyan should be a big part of it for the Packers and your championship team. Jordan Akins (vs CIN) – The dropped touchdowns are a concern but Akins has seen six targets in three of the last five games and just put up 50 receiving yards against a tough Colts defense. The Bengals have allowed the third most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, making Akins a viable, desperation streaming play at this crazy position.
Sit
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (vs IND) – The Steelers have lost three straight, and if you’ve been starting Roethlisberger you may have missed your league’s playoffs. If you have managed to avoid starting Big Ben, or have just survived his poor play, keep him out of your lineup this week if you want a chance of winning. Roethlisberger has thrown at least one interception in five straight games. Each of the last two weeks he’s completed less than 60% of his passes, thrown for under 200 yards, and has turned the ball over twice. Yes, his wide receivers haven’t been doing him any favors and the injury bug is running rampant, but Roethlisberger’s poor play is the biggest part of Pittsburgh’s losing streak. It seems highly unlikely Roethlisberger will turn things around against the Colts this week. Despite some recent struggles, Indianapolis has still allowed the fifth fewest passing touchdowns and has the third most interceptions this season. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers lose their fourth straight game. Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff berth; the Colts haven’t but are very much alive and kicking. If you want to win, don’t put Big Ben in.
Be wary about: Josh Allen (@ NE) – Really just keep your expectations in check. Against the Patriots in Week 8, Allen passed for just 154 and threw an interception, he ran for his lone touchdown of the day. Of course, since then Allen has been borderline unstoppable, but the Patriots defense is still good and if Stefon Diggs can’t go, Allen might struggle somewhat. Russell Wilson (vs LAR) – The only time Wilson has failed to throw at least one touchdown was in Week 10 against the Rams. Wilson threw two interceptions and fumbled the ball once in that game. The Rams have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns and recorded the fifth most interceptions. The matchup is too awful to risk it with Wilson this week.
RB: James Conner and Benny Snell (vs IND) – Even if James Conner returns from his quad injury, there’s a chance Benny Snell may have earned a larger role this week, after he put up 107 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on Monday Night Football. It won’t matter though, not this week. This week, keep the Steelers running backs on your bench. Pittsburgh has run the ball the sixth fewest times this season, so it’s not as if their running backs get many chances to poke holes in opposing defenses. Even if the Steelers decide to take the pressure off of Roethlisberger and run the ball more, the Colts defense is too good. Indianapolis has allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards per game, 78.5, and the fourth fewest rushing touchdowns with just nine allowed. Snell only has three games with over 20 rushing yards this season, and Conner is averaging only 60 rushing yards per game. Conner also hasn’t scored since Week 8. This week, look outside of Pittsburgh for a starting running back.
Be wary about: Le’Veon Bell (vs ATL) – At least for now, the Chiefs backfield belongs to Bell, although there’s always a chance Andy Reid gives Darrel Williams some work. It doesn’t matter though; Bell has done so little with his opportunities this season, both in New York and Kansas City that he’s tough to trust against a surprisingly stout Falcons run defense. The only thing Bell has going for him is that he’s part of the Chiefs explosive offense. Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds (vs SF) – This is basically a 50-50 timeshare that holds no value. Drake has been wildly inconsistent all season long and while Edmonds is much more efficient, he doesn’t touch the ball enough to put up useful numbers in fantasy. A matchup against the 49ers defense, which is one of the best against the run despite all their injuries, should keep this duo on the outside of your lineup.
WR: DJ Chark (vs CHI) – This probably didn’t need to be said but Chark has to be on your bench this week. Even the return of Gardner Minshew couldn’t help Chark. He’s far and away Jacksonville’s leading receiver but he hasn’t been good enough to elevate the awful quarterback play he’s dealt with all season, maybe next year. Chark has gone over 60 receiving yards just three times this season, and the last time was in Week 9. That was also the last time Chark caught more than four passes, something he has also done just three times this season. He’s been targeted over seven times per game, very respectable, so it’s not as if Chark lacks for opportunity. This has just been a disappointing season for him, and it won’t get better against the Bears. Wide receivers have caught the fourth fewest touchdowns against Chicago, something Chark also hasn’t done since Week 9, and the ninth fewest receiving yards per game to the position. If you’re in a keeper or dynasty league, consider holding onto Chark since he’s likely to get a huge upgrade at quarterback next season (*cough* Trevor Lawrence *cough*), but Chark’s 2020 fantasy season is over.
Be wary about: DK Metcalf (vs LAR) – Against the Rams in Week 10, Metcalf caught just two of four targets for 28 yards and no scores. No one on the Seahawks offense played exceptionally well that day. Russell Wilson has really struggled down the stretch and LA’s defense has been mostly dominant (ignore last week). In a slugfest with huge playoff implications, Metcalf should see plenty of Jalen Ramsey. You might have to risk it with Metcalf, but it’s a huge risk. Jakobi Meyers (vs BUF) – Meyers has a chance to put up good numbers just based on volume alone, he basically is the Patriots passing game, but he could be shadowed by Tre’Davious White, one of the best in the business. That plus the quarterback play makes Meyers very risky.
TE: Jonnu Smith (@ GB) – It was nice to see Smith put up some decent numbers this past week but don’t expect a repeat this week. This past week was just the third time Smith had exceeded 50 receiving yards, and the first time since Week 3. Similarly, it was just the third time Smith caught five passes, his season high, and the first time since Week 5. Since Week 5, Smith has been a touchdown or bust player, and he’s only scored three times since Week 5, and one of those was a surprise rushing touchdown. You can bet on Smith busting again this week, the Packers have only allowed four receiving touchdowns, fourth fewest in the league. Green Bay has is also allowing under 45 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which is the sixth fewest this season. Smith isn’t seeing enough volume, just over four targets per game, to have a serious chance at putting up decent stats this week. If you’ve made it to the finals while streaming tight ends, congrats, but this week, stay away from Smith.
Be wary about: Evan Engram (@ BAL) – The Giants offense is a mess and should be avoided against the Ravens. Engram has failed to total more than 50 yards in all but three games this season. His only receiving touchdown this season came back in Week 9. You need to win this week and you shouldn’t trust Engram to help you do that. Eric Ebron (vs IND) – Ebron suffered a back injury Monday night but even if he is able to play this week, don’t start him. Everyone in the Steelers passing game is struggling right now, including Ebron, and the Colts defense is too good for Ebron or his backup, Vance McDonald, to have much success.
--
Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz