Just when you thought fantasy football couldn’t get any easier, the bye weeks are here! This week, on top of a mountain of injured players and possible game cancellations due to COVID-19, you don’t get to play a single member of the Detroit Lions or the Green Bay Packers, oh joy.
For now just the Lions and the Packers aren’t playing but with more positive tests for the Tennessee Titans and the New England Patriots, there is a chance a few other teams might not be playing this week. Going forward there will always be a chance that a few teams get an unexpected bye week so you have to be ready. This season, more than ever before, quality depth is the best way to make it through both the NFL season and the fantasy football season.
Your focus still needs to be on winning each individual week. Especially with NFL schedules that could change at any moment don’t plan too far ahead for a bye week or a matchup that may change, but be prepared for anything.
Right now you want depth at every position, except for kicker of defense, just drop them and add a new one. Ordinarily having a backup tight end or quarterback might be seen as a waste of bench space but you don’t want to be stuck with no one even decent to play if a Chiefs game were to get cancelled and you can’t play Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Actually, while that stack of Mahomes and Kelce may have seemed great at the start of the season, but if you lose both in the same week you can probably chalk up that week as a loss.
It’s time to diversify your roster. Stacking players from the same team could put you at greater risk of losing a matchup due to a COVID related NFL game cancellation. Maybe you can trade Mahomes for Deshaun Watson or Matt Ryan, that’s not a huge step down, and a quality running back or wide receiver you can feel comfortable starting every week. Same thing could work with Kelce. Would you really feel that much worse off if instead of Kelce you had Mark Andrews and an extra starting running back or wide receiver? Or maybe you go after a tight end with a lower ceiling but a solid floor, Hunter Henry or even Hayden Hurst and a high end RB2/WR2 or low end RB1/WR1, your team might be better for it. It will definitely be safer from the trials and tribulations of this NFL season.
The waiver wire of course is the simplest way to diversify your team and try to find depth so keep an eye there as always. What about that running back handcuff who will do absolutely nothing unless the starter gets hurt? He might not be worth holding on to instead of the guy on waivers who is in a timeshare, on a totally different team than your starter, but has some flex value every week and, just like your handcuff, could assume a full starting role if his teammate gets hurt. Having the latter player gives you a viable starter in a pinch, while that handcuff will give you nothing. Plus, if their game gets cancelled, both the starter and the backup are out, and you’re left with nothing.
There are a lot of ways you can adjust your roster to account for the injuries and bye weeks, both planned and unplanned, these are just some suggestions. If you haven’t yet, make sure you talk to your league about how to handle last minute cancellations.
Remember, your first priority should always be to win this week, so do everything you can to put yourself in the best position to win.
Start
QB: Teddy Bridgewater (@ ATL) – Target the Falcons defense, it’s a relatively foolproof plan, especially for quarterbacks. Even the combination of Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles went for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. In fact, the Falcons have allowed four passing touchdowns in three out of four games so far this season. That one game that Atlanta only allowed one touchdown, they allowed over 400 yards passing, instead of the usual 300+ yards quarterbacks rack up. If Bridgewater was struggling, he’d make a decent streaming consideration in this matchup, but he’s been thriving in Carolina. He’s been efficient through the air and this past week got it done with his legs, helping to bolster his floor. Bridgewater’s only bad game came against a tough Tampa Bay defense in Week 2, but he’s otherwise been very reliable for the Panthers. With Christian McCaffrey out, it was fair to wonder how Carolina’s offense would fair with Mike Davis at running back and Bridgewater shouldering a heavier load, but both have stepped up in a big way. With Atlanta’s defense hit hard by injuries, most recently losing safety Damontae Kazee, Bridgewater may be entering must start territory this week.
Also consider: Justin Herbert (@ NO) – The rookie has exceeded expectations so far, and while the loss of Austin Ekeler could hurt, he has a good matchup to continue to prove he should remain the starter. Gardner Minshew (@ HOU) – With D.J. Chark back at his disposal, Minshew reenters the streaming ranks against a lackluster Texans defense.
RB: James Robinson (@ HOU) – It’s rare that an undrafted rookie is a starter in the NFL, but Robinson is one. It’s rare for any rookie running back to average 18.5 touches per game, and to turn those touches into over 100 total yards each of the last three games, but the undrafted Robinson is doing both of those things. If you somehow predicted that Robinson would do all of those things before the season started you either had been to the future, are insane, or work for the Jacksonville Jaguars and knew that Robinson is this talented. The Houston Texans have allowed over 149 yards rushing and at least one touchdown in every game so far this season. Robinson must be jumping for joy at the running all over that awful Texans defense. Getting rid of Leonard Fournette, no one expected the Jaguars had a workhorse running back on the roster, but Robinson has done it all for Jacksonville. As long as he continues to get such great volume, he’ll remain a must start in fantasy.
Also consider: Kenyan Drake (@ NYJ) – It’s really hard to trust Drake at this point but this is a prime matchup for him to breakout, and then you can try and sell high on him while you still can. Ronald Jones (@ CHI) – Over five yards per carry and six catches last week, and he could be the only viable running back active Thursday night, Jones should be the guy to trust in Tampa going forward, or at least for one more week.
WR: Justin Jefferson (@ SEA) – You already knew to start Adam Thielen, but it’s time to start taking Jefferson seriously. Back to back 100 yard games seem like a good place to start. How about 17.4 yards per target, a catch rate of 80%, 21.8 yards per catch, and a league leading 3.7 yards per route run, that serious enough for you? The rookie has been as advertised a quarter of the way through the season. The Vikings still have a low volume passing attack, Kirk Cousins hasn’t thrown more than 30 passes in a game so far this season, but there’s volume enough for Jefferson to produce. It helps, of course, that Thielen and Jefferson are the only pass catchers that see substantial targets from Cousins. This week the Vikings rookie gets the easiest matchup in the league, the Seahawks secondary. Twice already Seattle has allowed a team’s wide receivers to total just over 400 yards receiving. That’s right, just the wide receivers. Minnesota’s secondary isn’t much better and the Seahawks offense has been tough for anyone to stop. This game has the makings of a shootout, or at least a game where the Vikings will have to play catch up and Jefferson will benefit from that in a big way.
Also consider: Robby Anderson (@ ATL) - Anderson has become the Panthers WR1 over DJ Moore, and should continue to thrive against an awful Falcons defense. Zach Pascal (@ CLE) – It’s tough to trust any Colts wide receivers but with eight targets as Philip Rivers slot receiver last week, Pascal could be a safe bye week fill-in.
TE: Hunter Henry (@ NO) – Henry struggled against a tough Buccaneers defense last week but before than he had been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. The veteran averaged just over five catches and almost 70 yards per game through the first three weeks. He should be set to get back on track this week against a New Orleans defense that has allowed at least one touchdown to tight ends in every game they’ve played this season. Henry hasn’t even scored a touchdown yet, making his mark with solid catch and yardage totals. This seems like a prime opportunity for Henry to finally cash in, in prime time in fact. Entering Monday Night’s matchup the Saints are allowing 8 catches per game to tight ends. Even if he can’t find the end zone, Henry should be able to put up solid numbers against a defense that generous. Helping Henry’s case is the play of rookie quarterback Justin Herbert and the injury to Austin Ekeler. Herbert has been solid so far, and without Ekeler he may look to Henry more often as a safety net. You should feel good about rolling out Henry this week.
Also consider: Mo Alie-Cox (@ CLE) – The Browns can’t stop tight ends and Alie-Cox continues to be one of the few Colts receiving options with some upside. Tyler Higbee (@ WAS) – He’s not having the breakout many expected, but Washington has allowed five touchdowns through four weeks to tight ends.
Sit
QB: Baker Mayfield (vs IND) – Mayfield and the Browns begin an interesting chapter of their season, one without Nick Chubb. Cleveland’s impressive performance against the Cowboys may have seemed like a sign Mayfield will start being useful in fantasy football, but he failed to throw for over 200 yards for the third time in four games. The Browns will continue to be a run-heavy offense, with Kareem Hunt leading the way, and Mayfield will continue to operate an efficient but low-volume passing attack. Why would Cleveland change? In case you didn’t realize, they are 3-1. To add to Mayfield’s low ceiling, he faces the Colts defense this week. That’s a Colts defense that just allowed their first 200 yard passer this past week, so the odds of Mayfield throwing for over 200 seem low. On top of that, after allowing three passing touchdowns in Week 1, Indianapolis has allowed just two over the last three weeks. If you’re scanning the waiver wire for a bye week fill-in or just a backup in case of a COVID cancellation, you can do much better than Baker Mayfield.
Be wary about: Tom Brady (@ CHI) – The Bears haven’t allowed a QB to throw for over 300 yards or more than 1 TD. Brady showed that his ceiling is still high but this is a tough matchup for anyone. Matt Ryan (vs CAR) – Ryan and the Falcons have struggled for back to back weeks and the Panthers just held Kyler Murray to 133 yards passing.
RB: Myles Gaskin (@ SF) – Due to the scarcity of quality running backs you might have to start Gaskin. Really, it seems strange to even consider sitting a running back who is averaging 16.5 touches per game, but Gaskin is the exception. He’s averaging just 4.6 yards per touch, but more importantly, only 0.73 fantasy points per touch. When a player, especially a running back, struggles to produce while getting plenty of attention both as a rusher and a receiver, it’s tough to trust him. Gaskin’s lack of a single touchdown so far this season certainly doesn’t help matters. He continues to lose goal line opportunities to Jordan Howard. Now he gets to face an injured but still tough 49ers defense. Last week they held Miles Sanders to just 76 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches and Gaskin is nowhere near as talented as Sanders. As long as Howard and Matt Breida receive minimal opportunities, Gaskin will have value, but until he can produce with some efficiency, he’s a risky play.
Be wary about: Los Angeles Rams RBs (@ WAS) – Can you figure out who the Rams lead back will be this week? If things aren’t confusing enough, rookie Cam Akers might return this week. David Montgomery (vs TB) – After an efficient start to the season, Montgomery has struggled the last two weeks, and it’ll continue against a Tampa defense that throttles the ground game.
WR: Terry McLaurin (vs LAR) – The Washington offense is awful but McLaurin continues to produce, well maybe not this week. Dwayne Haskins is out, Kyle Allen is in, and who knows how the offense will look now. No worries though, McLaurin only has to face Jalen Ramsey this week. Ramsey hasn’t been shadowing receivers as much and hasn’t been as fantastic as he was with the Jaguars, but he’s still one of the better cornerbacks in the league. So that’s a new quarterback and a tough matchup all in the same week. All around the Rams have actually been pretty tough again wide receivers this season. They allowed big yardage and a touchdown to the Bills in Week 3, but otherwise haven’t allowed a score to a wide receiver and have kept their opponents passing games in check. There’s no one on Washington who can really take defensive attention from McLaurin, so the sophomore could be in for a long day.
Be wary about: A.J. Green (@ BAL) – He’s no longer a reliable receiving option and Joe Burrow is starting to realize, about time you did too. Hunter Renfrow (@ KC) – Even with Renfrow seeing plenty of targets, it’s tough to trust any Raiders pass catcher outside of Darren Waller, especially against a Chiefs defense among the best in the league against the pass.
TE: Mike Gesicki (@ SF) – For a second there it really looked like Gesicki might ascend to the rarified air of the elite tight ends, and the next second we remembered he’s on the Dolphins. One catch for fifteen yards in back to back weeks, just three targets each of those weeks, you do the math. His backup out produced him this past week with just two catches for 30 yards. Gesicki is not a starting caliber tight end for fantasy football, especially against the 49ers. 105 yards receiving, that’s all San Francisco has allowed to tight ends four games into the season. Not even the Eagles’ Zach Ertz could get anything going against them. That’s not exactly a recipe for Gesicki to have success. The only Miami pass catcher you should be trusting is DeVante Parker. Maybe things will turn around for Gesicki if Tua Tagovailoa takes over under center, but you’ll have to wait at least one more week for that to happen. For now, bench Gesicki.
Be wary about: Austin Hooper (vs IND) – The loss of Nick Chubb could result in more passes, but just one good week isn’t enough to expect an expanded role, and tight ends can’t do much against the Colts. Dalton Schultz (vs NYG) – Schultz has been a hot waiver add of late, but with so many other options in the Dallas offense, and against a Giants defense that has defended tight ends well, it might be a good idea to look elsewhere.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz