Well we’re at the halfway point of the season, and just as it seemed like every team was finally up to speed, it turned out it was the weather’s turn to wreak havoc on the game. Plus, there’s still positive COVID-19 tests popping up and what seems like inordinate amount of injuries making this NFL season incredibly difficult to predict.
That unpredictability is of course the most consistent thing about any NFL season; “on any given Sunday” right? The same can of course be said for fantasy football. Who knew that Christian McCaffrey would miss most the first half of the season, James Robinson would be a stud, the reliable and durable Zach Ertz would struggle before ultimately getting injured, or that Robby Anderson would be the number one wide receiver for the Panthers? Absolutely no one knew that any of that would happen.
So as we’ve talked about all season long, you have to do your best to be prepared for anything and everything. Just do your best to have viable depth behind your top players because some seasons the injury-prone guys stay healthy and the ironmen wind up on injured reserve, anything is possible.
Ultimately, as much as we might hate to admit it, fantasy football is a game of luck. We have no control over how players will perform or who will stay healthy, and we don’t get to play defense against our opponent’s team. We just take all the information we have available, put together a lineup that we hope will give us our highest possible point total, and then hope your opponent’s team doesn’t outscore you by one or even .1. Then, inevitably, a week after that heart breaking loss, every player on your team struggles but your opponent’s is even worse and you end up winning. Seriously, anything is possible.
So much is out of our control in fantasy football so just do your best and have fun.
Start
QB: Josh Allen (vs SEA) – A lack of touchdowns, a tumbling completion percentage, and a lackluster passer rating have made it increasingly difficult to trust Allen in fantasy football. Luckily for us, and Allen, Buffalo has one of the most effective treatments for struggling quarterbacks in town this week. Let’s give a big welcome to the swiss-cheese Seattle Seahawks secondary. Try saying that five times fast. You’d probably have an easier time throwing a touchdown against the Seahawks as all but two quarterbacks have thrown at least two touchdowns against Seattle. Allen passed for at least two touchdowns in each of the first six games this season. His only score the last two weeks came on the ground, Allen’s a good bet to get back in the end zone multiple times this week, either on the ground or through the air. Only Kirk Cousins has failed to exceed 300 yards passing against the Seahawks. After starting the season with two 300-yard passing days and one 400-yard passing day, Allen has only gone over 300 yards once in the last five weeks. Since everyone but Cousins reaches those lofty heights against Seattle, it’s a fair assumption that Allen will rack up the yardage. A big reason to not completely lose faith in Allen going forward is his production as a rusher. He has four rushing touchdowns already this season and ran the ball at least ten times each of the last two weeks. That’s a better floor than a lot of quarterbacks can give you and against one of the worst defenses in the league Allen is a must start.
Also consider: Derek Carr (@ LAC) – Justin Herbert has LA’s offense clicking on all cylinders and Carr has some pretty good weapons of his own, plus both teams have bad pass defenses. This game has the makings of a shootout. Drew Lock (@ ATL) – Lock and the Broncos offense began to sync up late last week and now they get to face the horrendous Falcons defense, you could do worse than Lock if you’re streaming quarterbacks.
RB: James Robinson (vs HOU) – The undrafted rookie went into the bye with a bang and could be relied on even more heavily coming out of the bye. Josh Luton is in for injured starter Gardner Minshew so it wouldn’t be surprising for Jacksonville to lean on Robinson in the run game as his fellow rookie, Luton, gets up to speed. Through his first seven career games Robinson has racked up seven total touchdowns and is averaging just over 100 yards from scrimmage per game. The kid is good, really good. Opponents can’t stack the box against Robinson either because opposing defense have to account for the Jaguars dynamic wide receivers, even with Luton under center. This week Houston finds itself in that bind. Robinson must be licking his chops thinking about this matchup. The Texans have allowed over 150 rushing yards to all but two teams and only once have they not allowed a running back to score at least one touchdown. Yes, that one time was when the Texans held Robinson to 70 scrimmage yards and no touchdowns but coming off a bye Robinson has a good chance to bounce back and continue his fantastic rookie campaign. The Texans have also allowed some good production through the air to running backs so even if Robinson struggles on the ground again, he could elevate his production as a receiving outlet for Luton. Robinson remains a must start.
Also consider: Damien Harris (@ NYJ) – You never know with Patriots running backs but Edmonds now has two 100 yard rushing games, has been incredibly efficient, and the Jets are well below average against the run. Chase Edmonds (vs MIA) – With Kenyan Drake injured, Edmonds takes over a starting role. He has already shown he can get it done as both a rusher and receiver, and the Dolphins won’t put up much resistance.
WR: Marvin Jones (@ MIN) – The Lions played the first two weeks of the season without Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones had two of his best outings of the season. Against the Bears and Packers he combined for eight catches on 14 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. This past week against a tough Colts defense, with Golladay leaving early, Jones found the endzone, twice, for the first time since Week 2, and received his second most targets in a game this season, behind the eight he saw in Week 1. Jones has been a viable fantasy asset in the past, but has simply struggled to find a role in a passing attack that’s centered on Golladay and T.J. Hockenson. Well, with Golladay out, you can trust Jones in your lineup again, especially against the Vikings. In five of Minnesota’s seven games this season, opposing wide receivers have scored multiple touchdowns. Those two games were against the Colts and Titans, two teams who rely on their wide receivers less than Detroit does. Due to injuries it isn’t even clear which of the Vikings less than stellar cornerbacks will be matched up with Jones. This is a prime week to have Jones in your lineup as he seems likely to give you the production you’ve been hoping for all season.
Also consider: Jerry Jeudy (@ ATL) – Yup, the Falcons defense still stinks and it looks like Jeudy is starting to get his legs under him and establish a connection with Drew Lock. Tyler Lockett (@ BUF) – Of course you were starting him but since DK Metcalf will be shadowed by Tre’Davious White this has the feel of a big week for Lockett.
TE: Rob Gronkowski (vs NO) – Early in the season it seemed like Gronk shouldn’t have returned to the NFL; he appeared to be a far cry from his former elite self. While Gronk likely won’t return to his Hall of Fame level of play, it turned out he just needed to shake off the rust. In four of the last six games, Gronk has seen six or more targets and has over 40 receiving yards in five of those six games. He’s become a reliable part of Tampa Bay’s offense and has shown bits of his old rapport with Tom Brady with a touchdown in each of the past three games. Gronk didn’t do much against the Saints in Week 1 but O.J. Howard, who is out with an injury, caught a touchdown. New Orleans has allowed six touchdowns to tight ends so far this season. The Saints were torched by Darren Waller and Robert Tonyan in back to back weeks, and allowed touchdowns to T.J. Hockenson and Hunter Henry. Basically, capable tight ends with decent roles in their offense have been good against the Saints. The addition of Antonio Brown, and the numerous other receiving options for Brady, puts a cap on both Gronk’s floor and ceiling for fantasy purposes, but he will always be Brady’s most trusted option and that keeps him as a viable fantasy play, especially this week.
Also consider: Eric Ebron (@ DAL) – Ebron usually sees at least five targets, giving him a decent floor, and the Cowboys are below average against tight ends. Noah Fant (@ ATL) – Never fewer than five targets in a single game this season, and Fant saw nine this past week. He’s a crucial part of Denver’s offense and faces the atrocious Falcons defense this week.
Sit
QB: Lamar Jackson (@ IND) – We know all about Super Bowl hangovers, but is there such a thing as an MVP hangover? If that’s what’s ailing Jackson, last season’s MVP, he’s unlikely to get over it against the Colts defense. Indianapolis has held teams under 250 passing yards in five of their seven games, and under 200 yards in three of those games. Only three times has a quarterback passed for more than one touchdown against the Colts, and Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow combined for a whopping zero passing touchdowns against Indy. Since passing for 275 yards in Week 1, Jackson’s game high has been just 208 yards. He has four games with fewer than 200 passing yards, and totaled just 97 passing yards on 28 attempts against Kansas City in Week 3. Of course Jackson has never been a prolific passer so we shouldn’t be surprised by that, but he has completed just 60% of his passes this year, after completing 66% last year. Just last week Jackson completed only 46.4% of his passes. Last season Jackson made up for his passing deficiencies with his dynamic rushing ability, but he hasn’t been able to get the job done in the same manner this season. Jackson and the Ravens may continue to struggle running the ball with the injury to star offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley. If you’re in a situation where you have to start Jackson that’s okay, he’s talented enough that anything is possible. However, against a very talented Colts defense, another frustrating outing seems highly possible for Jackson.
Be wary about: Drew Brees (@ TB) – It’s tough to trust anyone against Tampa Bay’s defense and Brees doesn’t have an especially high ceiling in an Alvin Kamara-centric Saints offense. Ryan Tannehill (vs CHI) – Similar situation here for Tannehill as the Titans offense is still dominated by Derrick Henry, and Chicago’s defense is even better than Tampa’s.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (vs PIT) – Last week, for the first time all season, the Steelers allowed a 100 yard rusher. Don’t expect them to allow a repeat performance this week. Elliott was struggling on the ground even before Dak Prescott was lost in injury. Now, with a backup quarterback under center, defenses can focus the majority of their attention on Elliott. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 5 and only caught one pass in back to back weeks. Elliott could see more action as a pass catcher going forward, serving as a safety valve to whoever starts at quarterback for the Cowboys, but don’t expect the Steelers to allow him to do much as a receiver this week. Pittsburgh is just as tough against running backs through the air as on the ground, the Steelers are allowing just 22.6 receiving yards per game to running backs, that’s third best in the league. Between the quarterback play and a shoddy offensive line, the entire Cowboys offense will be tough to trust going forward. With Elliott you’re hoping for enough volume to produce a solid, if inefficient, yardage total, and maybe he’ll fall into the end zone. Given where you drafted him you might not have the depth to comfortably bench Elliott, but it’s likely the right move if you can.
Be wary about: Todd Gurley (vs DEN) – The volume is great but he does so little with it even in good matchups. He’s touchdown or bust against a stout Broncos front. Jonathan Taylor (vs BAL) – Keep an eye on his injury status but even if he’s healthy he hasn’t been nearly as good as many had expected, plus, every running back struggles against the Ravens.
WR: Amari Cooper (vs PIT) – You really can’t trust the Cowboys offense right now. As this is being written it is still unknown who will be starting at quarterback for Dallas when they host Pittsburgh on Sunday. Honestly though, it’ll make no difference to Cooper’s prospects if it’s Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert. Just like with Elliott you may be stuck with starting Cooper but hopefully you have other options. This isn’t even about Cooper’s matchup with the Steelers secondary, as they are far and away the weakest part of Pittsburgh’s defense. It has everything to do with Rush or Gilbert attempting to throw the ball while fending off the onslaught of the Steelers pass rush that will easily cut through the Cowboys’ patchwork offensive line. Maybe Rush or Gilbert will do a better job than Ben DiNucci did last week, but it wouldn’t take much to reach that level. Last week, against an Eagles defense that was without Darius Slay for a good portion of the game, Cooper caught just one of five targets for five yards. The Steelers cornerbacks aren’t stellar but they’re generally better than the Eagles minus Slay. Pittsburgh has allowed wide receivers to score somewhat often so if Dallas can move the ball down the field there’s a chance Cooper scores. However, with his quarterback situation it seems unlikely. Until Dallas’ quarterback situation stabilizes Cooper will be a questionable start in all but the best matchups. Of course if last week is any indication, it’s not when but if Dallas’ quarterback situation stabilizes, good luck with that.
Be wary about: DeVante Parker (@ ARI) – There’s a chance Parker gets shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson which is tough for any wide receiver, and until we see Tua have even a decent day throwing the ball it’s very difficult to trust any Miami pass catchers. A.J. Brown (vs CHI) – Now that Brown is healthy it’s tough to sit him but the Bears defense has contained every passing attack they’ve faced and the Titans offense is still all about Derrick Henry.
TE: Mark Andrews (@ IND) – It seems that Lamar Jackson’s struggles have directly impacted Andrews. He still hasn’t exceeded 60 receiving yards in a game and in his last two games Andrews had five catches for 53 yards, total. Four of Andrews’ five touchdowns came in two games so it’s not as though scoring has been a common occurrence, he has five total touchdowns. Andrews seems like a long shot to find the end zone this week, given that the Colts haven’t allowed a single touchdown to a tight end this season. The Ravens will continue to be a run first offense, so there are often limited targets to go around, and that has certainly been felt by Andrews. He has three games with four or fewer targets and four games in which he averaged 7.25 targets. Those big targets games are nice but Andrews has three or fewer catches in five of his seven games. So even when he gets great passing game volume, he isn’t giving you good yardage totals or catches. Ultimately you’re left with a surprisingly touchdown dependent tight end. Against one of the stingiest defenses in the league, you might be better off sitting Andrews.
Be wary about: Dalton Schultz (vs PIT) – Seriously, you can’t trust any Cowboys right now, especially against the formidable Steelers defense. Robert Tonyan (@ SF) – In the first two games with Davante Adams back Tonyan totaled just five catches, and then had five catches in Week 8. Tough to say how much of a role he’ll have going forward, but the Niners haven’t been forgiving to tight ends this season.
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Follow Moshe Kravitz on Twitter @MosheKravitz