Can you feel that?
Actual, genuine excitement for the Phillies is in the air. And it’s not just the yearly Opening Day vibes. There’s a palpable feeling in Philadelphia, and a sense that a fun summer of offense, winning and contention is on the horizon.
Is it justified? Or spring training, post-lockout hype gone too far?
Here are 22 takes on the 2022 Phillies, including all my thoughts on the key figures, predictions and what this season will look like.
1. Kyle Schwarber will be worth every penny.
I’m all in on Schwarber as a leader and a slugger. The Phillies haven’t had a true winner in their clubhouse in years. That changes now. The attitude of this team will soon follow. Plus, Schwarber reunited with hitting coach Kevin Long will be huge. Don’t be surprised when 40-plus home runs arrive.
2. The Phillies will score 800 runs for the first time since 2009.
I’m buying into the offense. It won’t be baseball’s best. It may not even be a top-five scoring lineup. But the Phillies are going to rake. Last year’s team was overpowered by fastballs. This year’s team will get ahead in the count and hunt fastballs with the intent to do damage. Pitchers will be worn out after facing this group.
3. Joe Girardi will continue to disappoint.
I’ve been highly critical of Girardi since he arrived to the Phillies. Despite showing up with a reputation as a bullpen master, Girardi’s Phillies bullpens have posted a 5.20 ERA since the start of the 2020 season. Is all that on the manager? No, clearly not. But Girardi has often made things worse with in-game decisions and an inability to see two steps ahead during the game. Girardi is baseball’s Doc Rivers, still living off a title decades ago with a loaded team.
4. Here’s a name to watch as Girardi’s replacement in 2023: Don Kelly.
The ex-Yankees manager is heading into a walk year, something plainly obvious when the club didn’t pick up his team option for 2023. This is this is something to keep in mind, especially considering Dave Dombrowski’s lack of ties to Girardi. If Girardi goes, Kelly is the name to watch. The current Pittsburgh Pirates bench coach is a rising name in the industry after years spent as a utility player for the Tigers (under Dombrowski) and Pirates. Kelly was a first base coach in Houston before jumping to Pittsburgh, and has also done scouting work. He interviewed for the Red Sox gig before it went to Alex Cora in 2021, and was a candidate for the Mets job this past winter.
5. Bryce Harper reminds me of Reggie Jackson.
Both were high draft picks. Both are showmen. Both were famous free agents. Both signed with rich, desperate owners. And look at the on-field similarities so far.
Through their first 1,283 games:
Harper: 267 HR
Jackson: 258 HR
Jackson finished with 563 HR and OPS+ of 139. Harper’s career OPS+ is 142.
Now it’s time for Harper to get back to October and make his mark there.
6. Dave Dombrowski will be desperate for starting pitching help come July.
Zack Wheeler still hasn’t faced hitters in a live game. Zach Eflin is an injury waiting to happen. Kyle Gibson is pitching in front of the wrong defense. Ranger Suarez is being asked to fight off regression and take on more innings. It’s hard to trust Aaron Nola in a big spot. And that’s the feeling if everything goes right and everyone mostly takes the ball every fifth day because the depth behind those guys is very, very shaky. The Phillies will need an arm in July.
7. The Phillies will trade for Twins starter Sonny Gray at the July 31 trade deadline.
Minnesota will disappoint and flip off its biggest assets. A Gray-Byron Buxton deal will be rumored, but the Phillies will settle for Gray as a rotation lifesaver down the stretch.
8. Bryson Stott, unlike Scott Kingery, is built to succeed here.
Stop worrying about what position Stott will play. He’s not Kingery 2.0. Stott is built to succeed and keeps getting better. Kingery’s biggest issue was an inability to decipher balls from strikes. Good teams move young players around to get their bats in the lineup. The Phillies should do the same with Stott, and not worry about the Kingery failure.
9. The defense is a really big deal.
We can’t pretend it isn’t. We’re about to watch a baseball experiment play out over the next six months, and there will be ugly moments. Some have suggested that the Phillies will be fine if they just “make the routine plays” in the field. No, that won’t be enough. The plays they simply can’t get to will turn into hits, which will turn into runs. It’s an achilles heel of the roster.
10. Pitching depth is my biggest worry.
Yet, pitching depth is my biggest worry. The best teams (Dodgers, Rays, Giants) have waves of depth. They don’t build 26 (or 28 in April) man rosters. They have 40 players that can produce at a big-league level. I just don’t see enough quality and major-league ready arms in the Phillies system, especially in the bullpen. If everything went right, the Phillies could be an above-average pitching team. But everything never does go right. It’s going to be an issue.
11. Rhys Hoskins’ days with the Phillies are numbered.
And I think he knows it. I saw an interview with Hoskins recently and his tone was different. He’s not talking like the face of the franchise he once wanted to be. The team has committed big years and big dollars to stars around him, and there’s only one DH. Don’t be surprised if Hoskins is moved in a deal next winter.
12. Alec Bohm’s psyche is a bigger concern than his bat or glove.
Bohm looked like he was about to cry last year. Baseball players need to be able to deal with failure in order to have success. Bohm’s mental state is a bigger obstacle than his glove and insistence on hitting the ball into the ground.
13. Aaron Nola will bounce back, but still live in the shadow of his own peak.
Every single metric points to a Nola bounce back. We’re talking about a pitcher that strikes out a ton of hitters (11.1 K/9) and walks few (1.9 BB/9). He’s durable. He generates ground balls and weak contact. Yet it feels like Nola will never be good enough in Philadelphia because of the standard he set for himself in 2018, finishing third in the NL Cy Young vote. That pitcher is never coming back, but a good one with an ERA in the 3.50-range will return.
14. Zack Wheeler’s health can’t be overlooked.
Does this season rest on Wheeler’s shoulder? It just might. I know the Phillies will downplay Wheeler’s lack of spring training due to the flu and Clearwater weather. But one of the NL’s top pitchers from last season will enter the regular season without having faced a batter in a live setting. It’s not ideal, especially when talking about a pitcher with an extensive injury history and also coming off a huge workload in 2021.
15. Corey Knebel will make the NL All-Star team.
Knebel looks excellent and ready to roll. The pitcher the Dodgers trusted to be their opener in Game 5 of last October’s NLDS will be the best closer the Phillies have had in years.
16. J.T. Realmuto will continue to break down and decline.
Here are Realmuto’s year-by-year slugging percentages since arriving to the Phillies:
2019: .493
2020: .491
2021: .439
When catchers fall, they typically keep falling. I’m concerned about Realmuto’s ability to hit at a high level and catch well over 100 games into his mid-30s. The contract could look ugly in a year or two. The silver lining: Realmuto is no longer one of the three-most important players in this lineup. They can carry his declining bat.
17. Nick Castellanos won’t match his career numbers, but will be Mr. Clutch and an instant fan favorite.
The Phillies bought high on Castelllano’s bat. His 34-homer year was probably an outlier, especially considering his splits at Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. But 27 home runs, 40 doubles and big-late game hits will win him over in Philly.
18. Johan Rojas will arrive in late-August as a defensive savior in center field.
Rojas reminds me of Marquis Grissom. If he can hold his own with the bat in the minors, I can see a fast track to the majors. Perhaps he can become the Carlos Ruiz of this group: All glove, decent enough bat as he matures within a great lineup. And yes, you can take this as me not buying into the Mickey Moniak spring hype. The Phillies still need a long-term option in center, and it can be Rojas.
19. Guessing the bullpen guessing game.
Knebel will be an All-Star. Seranthony Dominguez will instantly become a Girardi favorite. Jeurys Famila will be durable enough to become important, but erratic enough to generate an inordinate number of phone calls to WIP. Brad Hand will continue to be cooked. Bailey Falter and Nick Nelson will be more important than you think. Braeden Ogle will be a name to watch soon.
20. The NL East will have more than three dangerous teams.
The Braves won’t fall off without Freddie Freeman. The Mets are really deep and really good (even with the Jacob deGrom concerns) and now have the best manager in the division in Buck Showalter. But don’t sleep on the Marlins dynamic young pitching, offensive additions (Jorge Soler, Avisall Garcia, Jacob Stallings) and breakout potential (Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Sanchez). The NL East will feature four teams over .500.
21. The Phillies will draw more than three million fans for the first time since 2013.
Citizens Bank Park will be the place to be this summer. Get ready for some high-scoring games.
22. The Phillies will finish 86-76, and miss the playoffs for the 11th consecutive season.
Here’s how I see the top of the NL standings, which now include six spots and two byes in the postseason.
1. Dodgers (NL West champs)
2. Brewers (NL Central champs)
3. Braves (NL East champs)
4. Giants (Wild Card)
5. Padres (Wild Card)
6. Mets (Wild Card)
7. Phillies
8. Marlins
9. Cardinals
Nine teams for six spots, with the Phillies just missing out. Think of it like 2006, with a core in place to potentially take a bigger leap next season.