The Phillies need an arm.
As much as a Juan Soto to the Phillies (even if it cost the reigning MVP) blockbuster would be fun, it’s likely not how Dave Dombrowski will improve the roster before the August 2 trade deadline.
With less than two weeks remaining to fill holes through the trade market, here’s how I see the Phillies needs in order to make a push to October:
1. Starting pitcher
2. Bat (preferably center field)
3. Bullpen
Did anyone ever think the bullpen wouldn’t occupy the top spot? I certainly did not. In a perfect world, the Phillies add three players and attack each area of weakness. But with the news on Zach Eflin’s knee becoming more ominous by the week and the up-and-down performances by Kyle Gibson and Ranger Suarez, the Phillies perceived rotation strength is nothing more than two star-level arms (Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola) carrying a group of No. 4 and No. 5 guys.
If the Phillies are going to get to October and have real designs on doing something when a playoff series arrives, one more legitimate starter is necessary.
Here’s how I’d rank some of the names the Phillies should have in mind to fill the hole.
1. Luis Castillo, Reds (13 GS, 2.77 ERA, 3.04 FIP): The top guy on the market. Castillo has leveled up, and now can dominate through a lineup with all his pitches. With an extra year of team control, think of Castillo as this year’s Jose Berrios. That means we’re talking about multiple top-100 prospects to get in the conversation. Would the Phillies be willing to part with, say, Logan O’Hoppe and Mick Abel (or Griff McGarry) to have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Castillo for two pennant chases? We’ll find out soon.
Contract status: Under club control through 2023.
2. Frankie Montas, A’s (17 GS, 3.26 ERA, 3.30 FIP): If not Castillo, look to Montas as a difference maker at this deadline. Oakland could be a one-stop shop for Dombrowski if we include a center fielder like Roman Laureano and relievers like Lou Trivino and A.J. Puk. Montas has missed a couple starts with a shoulder issue, so this name is red-flagged until he comes out firing after the break.
Contract status: Under club control through 2023.
3. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks (17 GS, 3.36 ERA, 3.99 FIP): Here’s the surprise name on the list. Gallen hasn’t been mentioned in many trade rumors, but the Phillies should absolutely place a call to a rebuilding Arizona team to see what it would take to pry away the South Jersey native. Gallen comes with the longest club control, so the price would be hefty. But we’re talking about a pitcher that owns a 3.48 ERA since debuting in 2019, including a season that ended with Cy Young votes.
Contract status: Under club control through 2025.
4. Mike Clevinger, Padres (9 GS, 3.50 ERA, 3.83 FIP): The rental with real upside. Contenders rarely sell off good pitching, but San Diego is a disjointed team with too few bats and plenty of quality arms. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Clevinger traded for prospects and those prospects flipped for a bat. The former Cleveland star has missed a ton of time after Tommy John surgery, but has the potential to get hot in a pennant race as he pushes for a contract this winter.
Contract status: Free agent at the end of the season.
5. Tyler Mahle, Reds (17 GS, 4.48 ERA, 3.55 FIP): Mahle strikes me as an undervalued asset that could be way more productive for his next team than he’s been in his time with the Reds. The stuff is there. The power fastball is there. The swing-and-miss is there. It just hasn’t all come together consistently. Are the Phillies the team to try to make it work? The cost will certainly be cheaper than his teammate.
Contract status: Under club control through 2023.
6. Noah Syndergaard, Angels (14 GS, 4.00 ERA, 4.05 FIP): If this was the younger version of Syndergaard, he’d be at the top of this list. Few young pitchers ever looked the part more than the guy called Thor, but injuries have taken their toll. Most concerning: Syndergaard’s strikeout rate has fallen to a pedestrian (18.6 percent) level. In fact, it’s below league average. There’s a chance his story isn’t fully written and the swing-and-miss comes back as he gets stronger post-surgery. I’d take him, but not for much.
Contract status: Free agent at the end of the season.
7. Brad Keller, Royals (17 GS, 3.96 ERA, 4.22 FIP): The least exciting option. We can look at Keller as this year’s Kyle Gibson. He’s serviceable. He’d prevent Christopher Sanchez or Bailey Falter from making too many pennant-race starts. But would you want to hand the ball to him in a playoff game? Probably not.
Contract status: Under club control through 2023.