The airlines of America may have been grounded this week, but that did not stop the NFL from plowing ahead through sub-arctic temperatures. The polar vortex that gripped the country last week got so out of hand that even Miami was in the 40s at kickoff on Christmas Day, reminding us the consequences of getting what we wish for. Could the cold weather continue to be the Dolphins big bug-a-boo in the playoffs? First, they have to get there.
While the Dolphins face a reckoning with the weather, every other team must worry about some other sort of nemesis or comeuppance that they may face in the playoffs. Each team has a weakness, and in the playoffs, they will hope to avoid any situations that could exacerbate those weaknesses. What if those weaknesses are self-inflicted? Well then that team might be in trouble. This week, we will include what might get teams into trouble in the playoffs should a weakness be exposed.
Note: These are not power rankings. These are not picks based off any analytical data or insider knowledge. These are picks based off what I have seen during the season so far. I could be wrong, just like I could be right. Either way, I will be back again next week to offer an updated projection to cover any of my past mistakes. Check out the projections from weeks past here:
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15
AFC
1 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) AFC West Winner
They’re In Trouble If: A defense figures out a way to fluster Patrick Mahomes. Outscoring the Chiefs is a losing strategy. The best hope is to do what the Bucs did in the Super Bowl and use a dominant enough pass rush to make life hard for Mahomes. I know that is easier said than done and unlikely to happen. Professional defensive coordinators barely have an answer for his offense, do you really expect me to have an answer too?
2 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) AFC North Winner
They’re In Trouble If: The running game does not return. A good run game keeps the opposing team’s quarterback off the field. When those opposing quarterbacks are Mahomes or Josh Allen, having a run game that isn’t sputtering is probably a good thing to have.
3 Seed: Buffalo Bills (13-4) AFC East Winner
They’re In Trouble If: Josh Allen forgets who to throw it to in the end zone. I have the same problem when I play football video games. Those end zone interceptions are killer, and Allen has 4 this year. The Bills are playing with fire if they are leaving scoring chances on the field like this.
4 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) AFC South Winner
They’re In Trouble If: The high wears off. Trevor Lawrence has upped his game of late as the Jags have won 5 of their last 7, and the defense is creating havoc with eight turnovers during this current 3-game win streak. For a team with zero expectations at the beginning of the season, just let the good times roll as long as they can.
5 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
They’re In Trouble If: They play a team with a winning record. The Chargers have two wins over teams with records at .500 or more: the flailing Dolphins and the collapsing Titans in the last few weeks. Not very encouraging for the playoffs where ALL the teams have winning records.
6 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
They’re In Trouble If: Lamar Jackson does not come back. Either for the playoffs or next year, the Ravens go as their QB does, and if is not going, then neither are the Ravens in January.
7 Seed: Miami Dolphins (9-8)
They’re In Trouble If: It gets cold. Okay that and if this latest Tua funk does not end before the playoffs start, or else a Dolphins season that started with so much promise will end just like the last 22 have: bitter disappointment and uncertainty going into next season.
NFC
1 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) NFC East Winner
They’re In Trouble If: They drop the ball. The Eagles two losses this season have come when they failed to secure the football, so if they can avoid fumbling the ball, then they only have to worry about the health of their MVP candidate at QB, Jalen Hurts, which is probably a much bigger concern.
2 Seed: San Francisco 49ers (13-4) NFC West Winner
They’re In Trouble If: Brock Purdy goes full pumpkin mode: The 49ers defense might be good enough to carry the offense on a bad Brock Purdy night. But if things get dicey and they find themselves playing from behind, the 49ers might find themselves needing a lucky break, like a blocked punt for example, if they want to advance in the playoffs.
3 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (13-4) NFC North Winner
They’re in Trouble If: They can’t come back in a game. Seriously, how funny would it be if the Vikings get knocked out of the playoffs in a game in which the OTHER team stages a fourth-quarter comeback.
4 Seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) NFC South Winner
They’re In Trouble If: Tom Brady can’t fix everything. Being that he cannot catch the passes he throws to his receivers, it is likely that the GOAT won’t be able to fix everything when things go wrong for the Bucs in the playoffs. And they will, because the Bucs are a hot mess.
5 Seed: Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
They’re In Trouble If: They need a late-game stop. Picture this, two minutes to go, Cowboys up by two, their opponent gets the ball at their own 20-yard line. What happens next?
6 Seed: New York Giants (10-6-1)
They’re In Trouble If: They have to throw their way back into a game: The Giants rank seventh in rushing offense but 27th in passing, which is understandable when your running back is Saquon Barkley and your quarterback is Daniel Jones. If it comes down to Jones, the Giants are among the worst at keeping their QB upright.
7 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
They’re In Trouble If: Carson Wentz can’t close drives. Taylor Heinicke has been more consistent under center, but they trust Wentz’s decision making in the redz one. And if Wentz is the “he’ll get it right hopefully” guy, that is not very inspiring.
AFC WILD CARD ROUND
(2) Bengals over (7) Dolphins
There is that pesky cold weather again.
(3) Bills over (6) Ravens
I give the Ravens credit just for showing up to this beatdown.
(4) Jaguars over (5) Chargers
Jaguars get one last week of good feelings as the Chargers are reminded that beating bad teams is easier than beating teams that are at least somewhat good.
NFC WILD CARD ROUND
(2) 49ers over (7) Commanders
The Commanders just gave the 49ers their best shot and barely left a scratch. Just enjoy another fun trip to the Bay Area and be done with it.
(3) Vikings over (6) Giants
A slow (by their standards) finish to the season for the Vikings will not deter them from an uneventful first round victory.
(5) Cowboys over (4) Bucs
What will be larger: the margin of victory or the amount of days Tom Brady is “retired for” this spring?
DIVISIONAL ROUND
(1) Chiefs over (4) Jaguars
Come for the blowout, stay for the game that ends up way closer that it probably should have been.
(3) Bills over (2) Bengals
“Five seconds isn’t too much time for Josh Allen is it?” Famous Last Words.
(2) 49ers over (3) Vikings
49ers rally from down 13 at the half.
(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles
Call me crazy if you want. If Hurts’ shoulder is, uh, hurt, and not fully recovered by this game, Eagles could be in trouble.
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
(3) Bills over (1) Chiefs
It was going to take a near perfect effort from Josh Allen to make it happen, and even though he did not deliver that perfect effort, Patrick Mahomes did not either, and the Bills eek out a Super Bowl appearance.
(2) 49ers over (5) Cowboys
Maybe Dallas has the better offense, but the 49ers have the better everything else.
SUPER BOWL
(3) Bills over (2) 49ers
Which of Josh Allen’s 40 yard touchdown passes will haunt 49ers fans the most I wonder?
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