Monday night is setting up for a potential Super Bowl preview. Crazier things have happened, but it's hard to see anyone other than the 49ers making it from the NFC.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are stating a pretty strong case in a crowded AFC race. They've had their fair share of injuries, won ugly, but they're 11-3 with Lamar Jackson and a downright elite defense. Even their woefully conservative fourth-down decision-making hasn't kept them from the top spot in the AFC.
Here's what to look for in a wildly enticing Christmas Day matchup:
How the 49ers contain Lamar Jackson with ailing interior D-line
When you watch the Ravens offense, there is a whole lot of Lamar Jackson. He’s in this MVP conversation, too (more on that later). He remains the league’s most lethal running quarterback while also dealing as a thrower, often after the structure of the play breaks down and from improbable arm angles.
San Francisco has been gashed at times in the past by running quarterbacks, and has shown deficiencies on screen plays this season, which could be an avenue the Ravens test to get rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers involved.
How the 49ers contain Jackson and the Baltimore offense on the ground will be especially interesting with Arik Armstead reportedly ruled out by Kyle Shanahan. The Ravens lost breakout rookie running back Keaton Mitchell to a season-ending ACL tear last week, leaving Gus “The Bus” Edwards as their lead back, with Justice Hill and Melvin Gordon behind him.
That’s a power-oriented, veteran running back group. If there’s any area of the field that makes sense for the Ravens to attack, it’s up the middle with Armstead and potentially Javon Hargrave out.
Javon Kinlaw has been a liability in run defense, so it will be interesting to see if the 49ers mold a unique approach to try and contain Jackson and shore up the interior of their defensive line. The Rams had some success limiting the Ravens’ ground game early and getting home to Jackson in Week 14 with a five-man front.
San Francisco has experimented with a five-man front at times, and it’s where Kinlaw has been at his best, especially as a pass rusher.
He has an astounding gap between pass rush capability and run defense capability. His 29.4 PFF run defense grade this season is second-worst (only to Calijah Kancey) out of 140 qualified interior defensive linemen. His 73.5 pass rush grade is 28th out of 126 qualified interior defensive linemen. PFF is flawed in some aspects, but it tends to do a decent job of identifying very good or very bad play.
In other words, if Kinlaw is in a four-man front, especially in early downs, Baltimore will go at him. They have a stellar offensive line, and an elite young center in Tyler Linderbaum. San Francisco will want to get Kinlaw away from him and veteran right guard Kevin Zeitler, and preferably on their weakest link, John Simpson, though he's had a resurgence in Baltimore.
It’s a situation where the Ravens may try to slow the game down and wear on the 49ers’ defense with physical running up the middle, and use Jackson’s legs to stress their coverages and edges. Nick Bosa, Chase Young and other edge rushers like Randy Gregory will need to be gap sound and maintain their rush lanes to avoid explosives.
When the 49ers’ offense gets rolling, it doesn't stop. Baltimore’s best bet is try and turn this into a slow burn, keeping Brock Purdy and co. off the field, and wearing on a spread-thin defensive line.
The battle of the best linebacking corps in the land
All the real football nerds are stoked for this linebacker matchup. These are arguably the best two middle linebacking groups in the NFL.
Fred Warner has held the title of top linebacker in the NFL for the last few years, but No. 2 has to be Roquan Smith. He’s got freaky range, aggression, and the intelligence required to be an elite middle linebacker who can both cover and clobber. He's also free of some awful Chicago Bears teams that probably limited his national recognition.
His No. 2 is Patrick Queen, who is in that same modern linebacker mold. He’s got 4.5 speed and has improved monumentally since his horrific rookie year. The addition of Smith has benefited his performance, and gives the Ravens - like the 49ers - a rangy, aggressive linebacker pair that can take on coverage and run defense assignments.
Warner’s No. 2, Dre Greenlaw, is the Bowman to Warner’s Willis. He’s got that old school ability to hit in a way that makes a crowd go “Daaaamn!” like Chris Tucker.
It’s an opportunity for these pairs to make their case as the best linebacker duos in the NFL. They’re the shot-callers and tone-setters for their defense.
How Smith, Queen - and the Ravens’ swiss-army safety Kyle Hamilton - are able to limit damage from the 49ers’ skill position players will go a long way in determining how competitive this game is.
Warner and Greenlaw, meanwhile, will need to be sound in their tackling - an area Warner struggled against Arizona - against physical and slippery runners, especially between the tackles.
Showtime for the MVP hopefuls
Almost every book has Brock Purdy as the odds-on favorite to win MVP. If he performs well and the 49ers win Monday, it’s hard to imagine him not winning the award. That would all but ensure San Francisco secures the No. 1 seed (two wins in their final three will do it) over perhaps the most compelling Super Bowl contender on the other side.
Right behind him? Lamar Jackson. And we're not talking about a footrace, where Jackson would win, despite what Reddit says.
(Purdy does have a 90th percentile 10-yard split in the 40-yard dash, per MockDraftable, but Jackson never tested at the NFL Combine and didn't run at Louisville's Pro Day).
Jackson has anchored an offense which has lost Mark Andrews, now Keaton Mitchell, and frequently asked him to come up massive. He almost always has the answers.
For him to have a chance to unseat Purdy, though, the Ravens have to win. It’s hard to fathom a scenario in which they win and he doesn’t play well.
There is no one else like him in the NFL, and he’s currently on pace for the first season with 3,700 passing yards and 900 rushing yards in league history.
He is the Ravens offense, and while this is the best receiving corps he’s had in some time, it’s a skill position group that pales in comparison to what the 49ers have. That's out of Purdy's control, but it's the reality.
That brings us to Christian McCaffrey. He has, by some books, the third-best odds to win MVP, but has the consensus fifth-best odds.
In order for him to have a chance, he needs a superhuman performance in a Christmas Day win in which Purdy performs poorly. This is as much a stats-based award as it is a narrative-based award.
McCaffrey is not on pace to reach the historic touchdown threshold set by either of the last two running backs to win the award: Shawn Alexander (28 TDs) or LaDainian Tomlinson (31 TDs), who MVPs in 2005 and 2006, respectively.
He currently leads the league with 1,292 rushing yards and is tied with Raheem Mostert at 20 TDs on the season.
That puts him on pace for 1,568 rushing yards, 15 or 16 rushing TDs, 618 receiving yards, and 8 or 9 receiving TDs. It’s a pace of 1,476 rushing yards, nearly 15 rushing TDs, 581 receiving yards and 8 receiving TDs. To have 23 touchdowns and 2,057 yards from scrimmage would put him in elite, but not historic company.
Only 13 players have had 20-plus touchdowns and 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage… including Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 20 touchdowns and 2,171 yards from scrimmage in 2021 and didn’t get a single MVP vote.
Even Priest Holmes, with 27 touchdowns and 2,287 yards from scrimmage in 2003, got just three MVP votes in 2003. (Holmes and Marshall Faulk are the only players on that list twice, by the way).
While McCaffrey's impact also impacts the game in a number of other ways - his Steph Curry-like gravity affecting defenders, his pass protection, his post-catch blocking for receivers - he'll need at least a borderline historic stat line to get credit.
This is a long-winded way of saying that McCaffrey probably needs a 200-plus-yard, 3- or 4-TD game on Monday night with Purdy playing poorly in a 49ers win to even have a chance to win the award.
Christmas Day will likely crown Purdy as MVP, or shift the narrative to Jackson or McCaffrey.