A little after 7:00 Monday night, the Tigers will be back on the clock. They own the fifth overall pick in the MLB Draft, the platform for likely the biggest decision the organization will make this year.
Sure, there will be trades to consider as the summer unfolds, potentially big ones involving the likes of Matthew Boyd and Nicholas Castellanos, but no player stands to have a bigger impact on the future than the one Detroit selects Monday night. And in case you hadn't heard, the future is presently the Tigers' main concern.
It's clear the organization needs more hitters. The pipeline is flowing with pitchers, including Detroit's top three prospects, but it's still pretty dry when it comes to position players. Infielder Isaac Paredes is the only one who ranks among the
top 100 prospects in baseball.
In that regard, the draft suits the Tigers well. The top
seven prospects are position players, a few of whom project to be in the big leagues shortly. Now is the time for Detroit to give its rebuild a significant boost.
So, who will the Tigers select? Here's our best guess.
It won't be Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, the consensus top prospect who's just about a lock to go No. 1 to the Orioles. Nor will it be high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who will be scooped up either second by the Royals or third by the White Sox.
But then things start to get interesting.
The first name to watch closely is Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn, widely considered the third best player in the draft. Vaughn is a terrific hitter, arguably the most polished one on the board, with power to all fields from the right side of the dish. The Tigers have a long-term need at first base. The way the draft is shaping up, there's reason to believe Vaughn will fall to Detroit. He would be a steal at No. 5.
Speaking of power, Vanderbilt outfielder J.J. Bleday is a definite possibility as well. The NCAA leader in home runs this season, Bleday is a smooth-swinging lefty with sound plate discipline. The future is murky for the Tigers at the corner outfield spots; Bleday, who also has a strong arm, has the pop to provide clarity. The question for Detroit is whether he's still on the board after the Marlins pick at No. 4.
If the Tigers go with a high-schooler, it's almost certain to be outfielder Riley Greene. They've been in on the Florida commit for a long time; it's no secret they love him. Like Bleday, Greene is an excellent left-handed hitter with tools that should translate smoothly to the majors. Scouts say he's the best high-school bat in the draft. Detroit's decision could very well come down to Greene vs. Bleday. In that case, Greene feels like the pick.
This one's more of a stretch, but don't rule out another lefty-hitting outfielder in Hunter Bishop. Thanks to a terrific junior season at Arizona State, one that was fueled by a change in his stance, Bishop has rocketed up draft rankings. He suddenly possesses more than raw power. Bishop also has the speed to play center field, which might make him more valuable to the Tigers than Bleday or Greene.
After spending their last four first-round picks on pitchers, the Tigers aren't likely to go that route again -- especially in a draft lacking elite arms. But TCU lefty Nick Lodolo looks like the real deal, and he's said to be on Detroit's radar. He's 6'6 and throws in the mid-90's, with plus off-speed stuff when he's on. The Tigers would have to really love Lodolo to take him at No. 5. But you can never have too many pitchers, right?
Lastly, keep an eye on high-school shortstop C.J. Abrams. He's unlikely to be on the board when the Tigers pick and they do have a glut of infielders rising through the system. But he's certainly talented enough to give Detroit pause if he's available. With plus-plus speed, Abrams is a Dee Gordon-like sparkplug with a bit more pop.
The Tigers, per usual, are looking for the best player available, director of amateur scouting Scott Pleis said on Friday. And they like the way things are shaping up from where they stand.
"I think it’s really good where we’re at, with the first pick for sure. We’re going to have some options and I anticipate some really good conversations about two, maybe three guys that could get to us, guys that we really like," Pleis said.
The Tigers' decision will ultimately hinge on how the draft shakes out ahead of them. It really feels like a question of three names: Vaughn, Bleday and Greene. One of those three is certain to be available, quite possibly two. Greene is the guy the Tigers have liked the longest, Vaughn is the hitter they'd almost have to take, and Bleday is the player with probably the highest floor.
Detroit needs high-end potential at the plate, specifically high-end power. In that regard, Vaughn is the best bet. Teams are said to be wary of the limitations that come with his righty-righty profile, but every pick comes with risk -- and for the Tigers, this is a risk worth taking.
With the fifth overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, we'll take the 2018 Golden Spikes winner and the best hitter on the board -- and we'll hope to see him in Detroit in 2021, helping a young Tigers team open a new competitive window.
