Questioning Brad Holmes’ ability to draft is like wondering if Segovia could play guitar, Michelangelo sculpt or Aretha Franklin sing.
He is the The Master Drafter. On that, we can all agree.
The Lions went from zero to 100 in less than two seasons primarily because Holmes put together some of the best draft classes in NFL history. However, last year’s draft contributed little to the Lions' 15-2 season, especially in comparison to Holmes’ previous drafts, and those in 2024 by several of the Lions’ NFC rivals.
The impact was immediate. The Commanders, who drafted brilliantly in 2024, upset the Lions in the conference semifinals. The Eagles, who were equally adroit in the ’24 draft, won the Super Bowl.
The Lions, after losing a huge chunk of their coaching staff, including both coordinators, are facing an absolutely brutal schedule this season, especially on the road. They have mounting salary cap issues, ironically caused by such fruitful drafting by Holmes from 2021-23. The Lions can’t afford to whiff in this year’s draft.
It just might be Holmes’ most important draft because the Lions are in no position to spend against the salary cap, and will be fortunate to retain all their brilliant young players. If they are going to add more high-yielding players, it must come from the draft, even if they are selecting late on the ladder thanks to their success.
Pro Football Focus recently rated the Lions’ 2024 draft class as the 26th most productive. Only Terrion Arnold logged a significant number of snaps, and he struggled mightily. Backup guard Christian Mahogany was by far the most successful of the Lions’ drafted players, while Sione Vaki performed well on special teams.
All other picks either had limited snaps and/or were ineffective. The Lions’ 2024 class played a total of 2,383 snaps. In contrast, the Commanders’ draft class, led by sensational quarterback Jayden Daniels and cornerback Mike Sainristil, played 6,256.
The Eagles were not only buoyed by veteran acquisitions Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun, but a revamped secondary led by rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Eagles’ picks amassed 4,577 snaps.
The Rams’ class had the biggest impact of all, adding 7,649 snaps, including two immediately impactful defensive linemen, edge Jared Verse and tackle Braden Fisk. The Rams’ class was rated the most productive by PFF, and with good reason.
The 2025 draft class is deep in the Lions’ two most obvious areas of need, interior offensive line and edge defender. But where they are picking, nothing is obvious.
They can no longer afford to spend picks as early as the second day of the draft on developmental players, such as they’ve done the last two years in the third round with defensive tackle Brodric Martin and in the fourth round with offensive tackle Giovanni Manu. Martin has barely played and Manu not at all.
Holmes does have a track record of getting it right. Perhaps there will be dramatic year-to-year improvement for the 2024 class, and maybe the 2025 picks will be more productive from the get-go.
While this draft is lacking the traditional hype from the standpoint of Lions fans, make no mistake, it is imperative as ever Holmes that maintains his Midas touch.