Matthew Stafford heads to LA as a frontrunner for NFL MVP in 2021. Jared Goff arrives in Detroit as a reject of the Rams. You'd never guess Goff is the quarterback who took his team to the Super Bowl two years ago.
So Goff also arrives here with a point to prove, his point being this: I can still play. Outside of Brad Holmes and the Lions, he doesn't have many believers. If you consult the experts -- or, to be fair, the statistics the past two seasons -- replacing Stafford with Goff represents a significant downgrade for Detroit.
"To me, it’s a major drop-off," analyst Greg Cosell of NFL Films told the Stoney & Jansen Show. "I think it’s a style thing. First of all, I’ve always been a big Matthew Stafford fan. I think he’s always been a high-level talent. You know there’s a toughness and a competitiveness to him that he’s shown throughout his career, so I really like Matthew Stafford.
"Goff is a different player. I think Goff's a solid NFL quarterback. It gets down to this argument that seems to be more of a discussion every year: if you don’t have some ability to make off-script plays, are you limited in some way to not being a truly high-end starter? And it fits the Stafford-Goff conversation as well, because certainly Matthew Stafford can do that. That’s not Jared Goff. Jared Goff is a pocket quarterback. He needs the system to work for him."
The system worked for Goff his first two seasons as the Rams' starter when he made consecutive Pro Bowls and posted a passer rating over 100.0. But it broke down in 2019 behind a battered offensive line, and Goff broke down with it. He has a passer rating of 88.1 the past two seasons. Stafford's is 99.8 over the same stretch.
"Here’s the reality of Jared Goff," former Browns GM and three-time Super Bowl winning exec Michael Lombardi told the Stoney & Jansen Show. "He’s really good in play-action pass. When the game speeds up on third down and the protection doesn't hold up, that’s when he falls apart. There’s a reason the Rams got rid of him, because they couldn't run the drop-back pass game. He wouldn’t hold the ball long enough to make the tough throws, and that’s a problem. That’s a real problem."
Former offensive lineman and current NFL analyst Brian Baldinger called the drop-off from Stafford to Goff "pretty severe."
"Stafford’s arm is still elite and he can do all the things that people watch with Patrick Mahomes right now and what you’ve seen from Aaron Rodgers for a decade and a half. He can do all that stuff," Baldinger said. "That talent, I think you’ll see it in LA this year. I think for the first time we’ll probably see the real Matthew Stafford. With a really good coach, a good stable system and good talent around him, I think he’s going to flourish."
Maybe the same will be true for Goff with the Lions building a potentially dominant offensive line. He played the best football of his career when the Rams had one of the best O-lines in the NFL. New Lions quarterbacks coach Mark Brunell certainly believes Goff can turn things around in Detroit.
"I cannot wait to get him on the field and see what he can do in person," Brunell said. "I’ve seen a lot of tape, I’ve seen some incredible plays, some incredible games and I’m absolutely thrilled to coach this young man. He can’t get here soon enough."
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Hopes are high for every team at this time of year, and the Lions aren't an exception. Brunell said "we all believe can be really special, and it really starts with (Goff)." We'll see. As NFL analyst Peter King wrote about Detroit in his weekly column, "the reality of games will likely bring some pain, particularly when the quarterback has been downgraded from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff and the receiving corps is minus Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones."
What's more, the Lions essentially replaced Golladay and Jones with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman. Now that's a major drop-off. And maybe Stafford to Goff is no different. It's up to Goff to prove otherwise.