Lamar Jackson might not be long for Baltimore. Is he destined for Detroit?
According to Vegas, the Lions are the likeliest landing spot for the superstar quarterback if he and the Ravens part ways this offseason. As in, 3/1 odds that Jackson winds up in Detroit, released Wednesday by BetOnline.ag.
The Buccaneers (9/2), Colts (5/1) and Jets (6/1) are his next likeliest destinations.
Jackson's departure from Baltimore became a distinct possibility Tuesday when the Ravens slapped him with the non-exclusive franchise tag in 2023, opening the door for other teams to negotiate with him when free agency begins next week. The Ravens will have the option of matching any offer that comes Jackson's way or accepting two first-round picks from his new team.
The Lions, as we know, have first-round picks to spare and a roster that looks ready to win. In theory, Jackson would be joining an offense that was already one of the best in the NFL last season. Now imagine it with one of the most dynamic quarterbacks the league has ever seen.
Now, the caveats.
For starters, Lions GM Brad Holmes has made it clear that he considers Jared Goff the team's starting quarterback and that he has no immediate plans to replace him. Goff earned Holmes' faith -- and Detroit's respect -- by playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFC last season. (He far outplayed Jackson by every passing measure.)
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Second, is Holmes really prepared to part with two first-round picks? He wants to build a winner through the draft, and he's off to a darn good start through two seasons in Detroit. Trading premium capital, even with an extra first-rounder in his back pocket this year, even for a quarterback as talented as Jackson, would threaten to set the Lions back.
Given how well Goff played last season, and given that he's already shown himself capable of taking his team to the Super Bowl, wouldn't Holmes be better served upgrading the Lions' NFL-worst defense than upgrading their quarterback?
Third, Jackson is about to cost his next team a ton of money. He's said to be seeking something similar to the five-year, fully-guaranteed $230 million deal DeShaun Watson got from the Browns. Are the Lions willing to commit that kind of dough to a quarterback who missed four games in 2021 with an ankle injury, then five more plus a playoff game in 2022 with a knee injury?
Jackson will be 26 at the start of the next season (Goff will be 28) and plays in such a (jaw-droppingly, eye-poppingly, mind-bendingly athletic) way that puts him at heightened risk of injury moving forward. And his style isn't really negotiable. Reduce the injury risk, and you reduce the player.
If the Lions do go looking for Goff's successor this offseason, they'll likely do it in the draft, where as many as four quarterbacks are projected to go in the first 10 picks. The appeal is in the rookie contract. If, say, Anthony Richardson fulfills his potential, he's Lamar Jackson at a fraction of the price. To Holmes and the Lions, who met with Richardson at last week's combine, that might be a ceiling worth pursuing.
And who knows. Maybe they'd just as soon pursue Jackson. He's already the best version of whatever Richardson might be. He has an MVP to his name, for crying out loud, and a career record of 45-16. He's thrown 101 touchdowns to 38 picks and rushed for almost 900 yards per season in a league where the best teams have the best quarterbacks. The Lions are a threat in the NFC next season with Goff. They would be an actual contender with Jackson.
But is it worth it, at the cost of their future?